Important Thursday night affair, as Nebraska visits Missouri. Nebraska opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total opened at 54.5. Most prevelant line is now Nebraska -3.5 and 51.5, so there’s been some movement on the under in this game, which is at least in part weather-related. Looks like Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggested a pick on this game, but no Vegas or online sportsbook actually opened it there.

When these two get together in Columbia, one thing is guaranteed, and that is that nothing will happen as interesting as what happened in 1997.

The winner of this game will have a very live shot in the Big 12 North, and it will turn the winner’s game against Kansas into a big one. Enjoy it.

To Convert or Not to Convert: Last week we wrote about the San Diego State-Air Force game that saw SDSU score on the last play of the game and we mentioned the pointspread implications.  There was no need to mention that the extra point was not attempted.   This past weekend we caught the close of two games that ended on “meaningless” TD plays.  When Indiana scored a “meaningless” TD against Penn State on the game’s final play, the Hoosiers kicked the extra point, which made some who bet the over in the middle of the week before it went up, very, very happy.  In the Auburn/Tennessee game, Tennessee scored on the game’s final play, and Lane Kiffin gave midweek over players and middlers some brief hope holding up two fingers as though the Vols would attempt a 2-pont conversion.   But when Auburn’s players and staff ran across the field to shake hands, Kiffin did the same, and no conversion was attempted.

In the NFL, when a TD is scored on the game’s final play, an extra point is attempted whether it is needed or not.   The rationale is that since point differential is a tiebreaker for playoff positioning, an extra point should be attempted.   Seems like a policy is in order for the college boys as well, if only to keep conspiracy theorists at bay.

The Luck Factor: Pointspread heartache was in full effect during last week’s prime time affairs.  In Thursday night’s game at West Virginia, a Colorado TD with 3 seconds left was ideal for those who bet the Buffs and the over.   In Provo on Friday night, Utah State “earned” the cover with a TD, also with 3 seconds left, in their loss to BYU.   These plays, and the dozens more like them that will occur over the course of the season, remind us that a lot of our bets will be decided by luck, maybe as many as half over the course of a long season.  

If you accept that premise, a 55% bettor (which is a rare bird indeed) will split his luck games 50/50, and on the remaining half of his plays will have 60% right sides and 40% wrong sides.  Now this is arguable (a good shopper will have lucky wins that others won’t get), and a lot of it is subject to interpretation (in their mind, bettors see too many of their winners as right sides and too many of their losers as bad luck), but it isn’t all that far off base.  And the truth of it should keep you from getting too bent out of shape when those unjust pointspread non-covers occur, as they are simply inevitable.

Rutgers Wimpy Schedule: The 12 game schedule has the majority of 1-A teams playing a 1-AA opponents, but nobody has a cushier schedule than Rutgers, who plays a pair of lower division outfits, as well as 1-A lightweights Florida International and Army.  After beating Howard (Sagarin #218, lost to Florida A&M 48-10 in their next outing), Rutgers takes on Texas Southern (Sagarin #231) this week.  Texas Southern lost to Louisiana-Monroe 58-0 and fellow 1-AA school Texas State 52-18.  Online sportsbooks have been more aggressive about taking action on 1-AA games this fall, and it’ll be interesting to see what the line is on Game 447/448 this week.  

Digging Deep in the SEC:  New offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is receiving a good bit of credit for Auburn’s 5-0 start, and with good reason, as the next scoring play by the Tigers will see them eclipse their entire scoring output from last year’s 12-game schedule.   Now Malzahn takes his Tiger offense to Arkansas on Saturday with a good bit of motivation.  Malzahn was fired after a single year as Arkansas offensive coordinator after being a serial state championship winner at a local high school.  He brought along several of his high school players and after his system was junked, most of them ended up elsewhere.   A week after Malzahn was let go, then-Arkansas know-it-all athletic director Frank Broyles said “this offense won’t work in the SEC unless your quarterback runs the ball.”  

Auburn QB Chris Todd is no running QB, with only 9 runs in 5 games (not counting 2 sacks) with a long run of 6 yards. While every other Tiger would count a win over Alabama as their single-game goal for the season, Malzahn might have a different answer, and he’d love to put up a big number on the Razorbacks Saturday.

Tim Tebow’s not the only concussed Gator. The brilliant Moses Jenkins is a special teams ace for Florida, and he’s out with a concussion.  The combination of Jenkins’ effectiveness on coverage teams and Trindon Holliday’s brilliance as a returner for LSU makes this item worth mentioning.

Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime…Any Losses?:  Fresno State’s “Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime” scheduling philosophy is admirable, but hasn’t worked out well for the Bulldogs.   My handicapping colleague Matty Baiungo points out that Fresno is 1-3 with their 3 losses all being very competitive affairs to opponents that are a combined 15-0 thus far this season.  Matty, Erik Schepoink, and Dave Fobare all offer valuable information in my Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  The Max is available for just over $6 per week and that comes with a load of free bonuses.  Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

Coordinated Failure: The aforementioned Gus Malzahn at Auburn and Mark Whipple at Miami are a couple of instances where a new offensive coordinator has worked out brilliantly.  But the move of former Illinois OC Mike Locksley to New Mexico to be head coach in the ABQ has been an abject failure for both schools, who have a combined 1-7 pointspread record and 0-8 straight up mark against 1-A opponents.  Locksley figured to have growing pains installing a new offense, but an age discrimination suit by a secretary, and a punching an assistant coach were not to be expected.  “Locksley Era off to Horrible Start at New Mexico” is likely not the kind of headline that folks in LoboLand were hoping for.  UNM finally got a cover when they stayed inside the 34-point spread against a Texas Tech team distracted by Twittergate.  

When Locksley’s replacement at Illinois, Mike Schultz, was hired as Illini offensive coordinator last year, he made a lot of noise about playing offense at a fast pace.  But apparently, the pace doesn’t matter when you refuse to throw the ball downfield.  The dink and dunk game doesn’t fit Juice Williams strengths and the senior QB has gone from second tier Heisman candidate to backup, as averaging 8 points per game against 1-A opponents has led to Williams’ benching.   Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State are the three opponents, but even accounting for the meaty schedule, it’s been a disaster for everybody’s preseason “now team” in the Big 10.

All the best to you this weekend in your all your college football wagering endeavors, as well as everything else you do. 

Wyoming visits Florida Atlantic on Saturday in a game you probably haven’t paid much attention to.  In Boca Raton, at 4PM EDT on Saturday it’s supposed to be in the high 80’s and humid.  It’s been 32 degrees or cooler every night this week in Laramie, with highs in the high 60’s most days, though it did get up to 75 on about Tuesday or so.  Altitude team heading to a steambath might not be an optimal situation for the highlanders.  Wyoming is hydrating, bringing Pedialyte and Alka Seltzer, etc. But you can’t replicate heat and humidity in practice when you’re from a dry, cool environment. 

Wyoming is 2-2. They benefited from a 9-1 turnover advantage in their two wins over Weber State and UNLV, yet won those games only by a combined 10 points.   UNLV win was last Saturday, and they may be looking at a bit of a letdown in a non-conference sandwich situation. 

FAU opened losing to Nebraska and South Carolina, but they never show in those kind of games.  Last week the conference opener with Louisiana-Monroe was a tough loss, FAU outgained ULM by 144 yards but mistakes at the end of both halves led to a loss.   They’re desperate for a win here to avoid starting 0-4.  QB Rusty Smith, sore-shouldered last year, is healthy and their top WR from the past two years gets back from suspension.

Wyoming plays at a fast pace, and the goal is usually to wear out the defense but the athletic FAU kids are a lot more used to the heat and humidity and this could backfire on the Cowboys.  

Now Wyoming does have a freshman QB playing well since his insertion in the lineup (90 passes without a INT).  But FAU has the better athletes, is an experienced club, and is hungry for a win.  Wyoming could be gassed in the second half.  With the caveat that I do better with dogs than favorites, I think hungry FAU looks like a solid play here against a Wyoming club off a lucky win and playing in oppressive heat that they aren’t used to.

Properly judging a team’s performance using statistics is a key to success this time of year.  Some teams are not as good as their numbers.   Others are better than advertised due to luck, level of competition, unfavorable or favorable matchups, etc.   Most bettors who drive line moves at sportsbooks, especially early in the week, have some statistical backing for their plays.

The late, great, Mike Lee taught me to ignore games against 1-AA competition when compiling statistics, and his business partner Gail still provides statistical data at Friends of Mike Lee Sports.  Knowing how domination of 1-AA opponents can skew results, I had to laugh when I saw NC State referred to as “college football’s best defense” on ESPN’s web site this week.   NC State has played four games, and two were against Murray State and Gardner-Webb.   Back out the 1-AA creampuffs and NCSU allows opponents 5.1 yards per play, which is 44th in the country when only 1-A competition is taken into consideration.  

How do you judge Virgina Tech’s 272-59 rushing advantage over Miami? Is it a sign of life in the trenches for a team that was outrushed by a combined 475-150 in their games against Alabama and Nebraska?   More likely it’s just the advantage of playing in Blacksburg, where strange things happen and a special teams disasters make opponents wilt.

“Meaningless” plays at the end of a game don’t get any more meaningful than the strange doings in the Air Force/San Diego State game.  Air Force, closing a 17.5 point favorite in a game that was as low as -16 and as high as -18.5, led the Aztecs 26-2 before SDSU scored a TD with just over 3 minutes left.  It looked like a half-point cover was in the offing but the Aztecs missed the extra point, still trailing by 18, to the delight of those who had -16 and +18.5.   So the middle was in the air, right?  Not exactly.  SD State scored on a 30-yard TD pass on the games closing play for the 26-14 final.  You really couldn’t make a big case that Air Force deserved the cover, as the Falcons didn’t score an offensive TD and notched only 12 first downs, but benefited from a 6-0 turnover advantage.

Other teams that were -4 or worse in turnovers and lost despite outgaining their opponents include Buffalo (lost to Temple), Maryland (lost to Rutgers), Mississippi State (lost to LSU), Miami-Ohio (lost to Kent State), UNLV (lost to Wyoming), and North Texas State (lost to MTSU).   A lot of big turnover edges occur in mismatches, but most of those games were lined pretty competitively.  Just a ton of mistakes and bad luck influencing those contests.

Turnover beneficiary LSU visits turnover victim Georgia this Saturday in a key SEC matchup.  The Bengal Tigers are fresh off their 4-0 turnover edge in a miracle win at Mississippi State where they suffered a 21-12 first down disadvantage.   Georgia is suffering a 12-3 turnover deficit on the season, turning the ball over exactly 3 times in all 4 of their games.   The Bulldogs are pretty lucky to be 3-1.  So do you figure those patterns continue or is a reversal in order?

All the commentators who think that Tim Tebow should have been out of the game with Florida up 31-7 in the third quarter at Kentucky have short memories.  How did Oklahoma surpass Texas last year despite losing to the Longhorns?  By scoring early, late, and often.  Margin of victory absolutely matters in the polls, and nobody knows that better than Urban Meyer, who is well over 60% to the pointspread in his college head coaching career.  There’s also the small matter of the Heisman Trophy, which Tebow won’t win if he’s being pulled with a mere 24-point lead in the 3rd quarter of conference games.

We’re used to Jim Grobe’s Wake Forest teams playing smart football.  So the running back running the wrong way on first and goal from the 4 in OT, leading to a fumble and a 3-point loss to Boston College was a surprise.   But that wasn’t the only mental mistake by the Deacons.   Wake could possibly have won in regulation if not for consecutive boneheaded plays early in the fourth quarter.   BC was up 7 and on their own 34 facing a 3rd and 33 situation.  On an overthrown ball over the middle that was nowhere close to the first down Wake Forest safety Cyhl Quarles nailed the receiver for a needless and obvious pass interference call.  For good measure Quarles then hovered over the receiver in a menacing pose, which could have drawn another flag.  On the ensuing first down play BC threw downfield for 23 yards when two confused defenders collided, knocking each other down, setting up a BC touchdown a few plays later. 

A near replay of the Colts/Dolphins game of the previous week took place when Fresno State visited Cincinnati.   Frenso won first downs (25-15), rushing (290-57), and time of possession (43:42-16:18) but lost due to some quick strike big plays by their talented opponent. Fresno was in a terrible scheduling situation, off of tough defeats to Wisconsin (in OT) and Boise when they traveled east to take on the high powered Bearcats, and hanging around with UC for the pointspread cover was impressive.    Pat Hill had some questionable teams for a couple of years but despite the three consecutive losses he’s got a good team together this season.  

We’re sitting with a 57%+ pointspread record so far this season on our late phone service, building on our many years of football success.  If you’d like to learn about our program or get on board, call 1-770-649-1078.