Mid-50’s and light winds in Blacksburg tonight, where Virginia Tech is a 15.5-point home favorite against North Carolina, with a total of 43.5.  Tech was favored by as much as 17 earlier in the week.  So why is this line going down?  Bettors probably are noticing that UNC was a 3.5 point favorite in their close loss to Tech at home last year, and the fact that they have the better defense. 

Better defense?  Yep, the better defense is a big underdog in this one, as North Carolina allows 16 points per game on 267 yards, while Virginia Tech permits 19 points and 317 yards per game.  A few weeks ago you could have made a case that facing Alabama and Nebraska in non-conference games would help Virginia Tech offset a statistical edge (UNC played a bland non-conference schedule), but with those offenses struggling some, maybe the Tar Heels really do have the better defense.

North Carolina is fresh off a big blown lead a week ago tonight, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from that dispiriting loss.   Carolina was supposed to take a big step up in Butch Davis’ third year at the helm in Chapel Hill.  But the influx of talent that supposedly has been signed the past three Februarys apparently has not included many skill position players.   The Tar Heels lost their productive wide receivers to the NFL and as a result, QB TJ Yates is struggling mightily.  Last season was a fairly productive one for Yates, who threw for 8.7 yards per pass with 11 TD passes and only 4 interceptions in an injury-shortened season.  This year has been a far different story for Yates, averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 TD passes and 8 INT’s.   But his coaches continue to support Yates, and his backups have been even worse, with no TD passes and 4 interceptions in just 19 combined attempts.  Opponents can stack the line and dare the Heels to throw. 

Surprisingly, Virginia Tech’s strength is their offense.  While tonight’s opposing QB has regressed, Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor has improved year-to-year as much as any QB in memory.  After a disastrous 2008 that saw Taylor pass for only 6.0 yards per attempt, with only 2 TD passes and 7 interceptions, 2009 has been a sea change for the junior.  Taylor leads the nation with 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and he has 15 TD passes and only 3 interceptions.   The defense is solid, but not at the level of some past Hokie outfits.   Tech has a five-day rest edge, as they were off last week while UNC choked away their Thursday nighter against the Seminoles.

Since North Carolina was favored by 3.5 in their home game against the Hokies last September, this line seems high.  But UNC has been a double digit dog against Virginia Tech in each other year since the Gobblers joined the conference in 2004.  The past two visits to Blacksburg have seen UNC getting 19.5 points in 2007 and 24 points in 2005.  So while the line is hefty compared to last year, by other historical measurements, it is reasonable.   

Taking away series history, this line seems high here considering UNC’s sound defense.  And teams that disappoint at home frequently bounce back strong as a road dog the next week.  But the complete reversal of form for these two QB’s from last year to this season is jarring.   And while Virginia Tech doesn’t create the points out of thin air that they used to, how many times have we seen the Hokies break open a close game with a special teams or defensive return for a TD? 

by Kevin O’Neill 

Last year Florida and Oklahoma scorched the sports books as they roared to the BCS Championship game. Sooners backers enjoyed a 10-2 pointspread mark while the Gators covered at a 10-1-1 clip.   Those who were looking for a repeat this season from top contenders have had no reason for celebration.

Texas is 2-4-1 to the spread, Florida is 2-3-1, and USC is 2-5, with those three acknowledged contenders combining to go 6-12-2 to the number.  Oklahoma was seen to be their equal coming into the season before being exposed in their opener against BYU (and since then).   Alabama wasn’t seen as a top-tier club entering the campaign, and while they’re 5-3 to the spread, few were likely playing the Tide for “run up the score” possibilities in their opener against Virginia Tech, and now that people realize the strength of the Tide they’ve failed to cover for two consecutive weeks.   By any measure, ”laying points for style points” is a money-burning failure this season.  

Whether due to his injury, the loss of his offensive coordiantor and playmakers, the increased competition, or simply a slump, Tim Tebow hasn’t been a world beater in SEC play.  In non conference play Tebow averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt with 5 TD’s and no interceptions.   Against SEC opponents, Gator linchpin is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt with 3 TD passes and 4 interceptions.

Pair of Big 12 3TD Faves Upset: Not a lot of three-TD favorites win lose at home, but a pair of them did in the Big 12 on Saturday.  Few teams win by 22-points as a 22-point dog, but Texas A&M pulled it off at Texas Tech on Saturday night.   It was a humiliating loss for Mike Leach’s inconsistent crew, as they see A&M as their biggest rival (they’d rather beat Texas, but they most compare themselves to the Aggies).  Leach was hardly in nuturing mode when discussing QB Tyler Potts, calling his QB ”slow and statue-like” (he also reference what it would be like to coach the Swedish Bikini Team).  But should the QB be the focus when your defense allows 321 yards rushing and 238 yards passing? The result was particularly unexpected due to the disparate results the two teams had in the previous two weeks against Kansas State.  Two weeks earlier Tech humiliated Kansas State 66-14, and K-State had followed that up with a 62-14 (59-0 midway through the 3rd quarter) shellacking of A&M.

Nebraska’s 9-7 home loss to 20.5-point dog Iowa State is less headscratching when you look at the turnovers in this game.  All 8 were committed by the Huskers, and a daring fake punt by the Cyclones had the overall effect of a turnover.  The second half was scoreless as Iowa State hung on for dear life.   Northern division pretenders Missouri and Kansas were both kicked to the curb (by Southern Division stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma) and none of the games in the league were close, illustrating the twin follies of betting college teasers and any suggestions earlier in the season that the Big 12 North was gaining on the Big 12 South.

Close Wins Hurting Irish Future? A friend of mine who is a Notre Dame fan (can’t blame him, he’s an alum) that a part of him would rather that the Irish lose, all the easier to part with Charlie “Touchdown Grimice” Weis.   And that was before we realized that the Irish won that game by the skin of their teeth over Boston College despite a 5-0 turnover advantage.  BC is a team that you really can’t judge by statistics.  Year in and year out they find a way to compensate for their weaknesses, stay in games, and win them, though they came up just short on Saturday. 

Notre Dame would do well to give Weis, who is ill-suited to run a college program, the boot and hire Brian Kelly of Cincinnati.  The whipping that the Bearcats put on Louisville Saturday didn’t include stud QB Tony Pike, but Kelly does a great job plugging different quarterbacks in with solid results.    Backup Zach Collaros was 15-17 for 253 yards and 3 TD’s, but Kelly is firm that Pike will be the starter when he comes back.   

Georgia Tech’s Offense Grinding To Perfection: One mistake I made this week was not accounting to the vast improvement of Georgia Tech’s offense in Paul Johnson’s second year.   Virginia held Tech in check and has improved greatly on both sides of the ball lately, and broke open a close game Saturday by taking the second half kickoff and engineering a 18 play, 82 yard drive that took 10:47.  A 20-yard Jonathan Dwyer run on 3rd and 8 was sprung by an obvious uncalled clip, but Virginia couldn’t stop the four other conversions on 3rd or 4th down and the Jackets took control.

Classy Mountaineers: West Virginia fans have not always been known as the classiest bunch, but they flattered their state and their school in the numerous ways the honored Jaspar Howard, the UConn player stabbed to death the previous weekend.    The gestures were appreciated by Connecticut.  The Huskies then proceded to play their guts out, outgaining WVU 501-386 but coming up short on the scoreboard 28-24 as a +7.5 dog.   It was the first time the Mountaineers have been outgained this season.

San Diego State Improving: A 7-point favorite that doubles their opponent’s rushing yardage covers a vast majority of the time, but not when they are outpassed 459-205, as Colorado State was by San Diego State on Saturday.   You would think a beach team like San Diego State would wear down in the thin-air of the Rockies but the Aztecs wired the second half 35-7.  Star Aztec WR Vincent Brown was injured in the first half, but DeMarco Sampson stepped in for him in a big way, with 15 catches for 257 yards and 3 TD’s.   In more meaningful MWC action, TCU crushed BYU in Provo, 38-7 thanks to edges of 101 yards and 2 turnovers.

In the Navy’s Wake: In Annapolis Wake Forest showed that their blowout loss at Clemson was no fluke, and they’re a team that has declined quite a bit instead of improving as they usually do under Jim Grobe.   Navy didn’t throw a single pass in their 13-10 home win over the Deacons played in the rain.   Navy and their service academy competitors Air Force and Army passed for only 80 yards combined this weekend.  The three totaled 179 rushing attempts and only 19 passing attempts this weekend.  

Clutch Hawkeyes: Iowa continues to annoy those who rightfully see the weaknesses of the Big Ten and want the conference out of the BCS mix as a result.   The Hawkeyes didn’t play particularly well but managed to take a trick play punch from Michigan State and then score on the game’s final play to gut out a 15-13 win in East Lansing.   The game was an old-school defensive delight, 6-6 until the game’s final moments with both teams holding the other to field goals on critical “first and goal from the 1″ situations in the second half.  But how many old-schoolers have the Big Ten Network to have watched the contest?

The BCS computers love Iowa, and the Hawkeyes are fortunate that the margin of victory is no longer a component of those ratings, as the 8-0 Hawkeyes have wins by a field goal or less over Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, and now Michigan State.   That Iowa/Michigan State game was one of only two 1-A contests that were turnover free , with South Carolina’s win (but pointspread failure) against Vanderbilt being the other.  

Clash of the Titans: We opened with the BCS contenders, let’s conclude with the bottom feeders.  Ball State showed that an 0-7 team simply shouldn’t be a road favorite, even against a team as putrid as 0-6 Eastern Michigan.   Ball State won rushing 463-153 and first downs 38-24, but couldn’t put away the Hurons and won only 29-27 as a 3-point favorite.  A 3-0 turnover differential in favor of EMU was the main culprit.

Thanks for reading this far.  Check out our game preview information throughout the week at RealWorldSports.

by Kevin O’Neill

After a series of blowouts by superior teams on Sunday, favorite bettors are smiling broadly.  By one count, when you discount pushes, the chalk is now 56-44 against the spread (you can figure out that winning percentage yourself, can’t you?) on the season, which is a pretty hefty edge.   Favorites were 9-3-1 this week (though the Texans push became a loss on Sunday at many books that moved from 3 to 3.5).  It’ll be interesting to see the results of Delaware’s parlay card operation from this past week, and what it would have been instead had the Redskins upset the nearby Eagles applecart on Monday night instead.

The Sunday blowouts all involved both superior play and a turnover edge.   The Chargers, Colts, Bengals, Packers, Patriots, and Jets all won by 28 points or more, all outgained their opponent by at least 1.1 yards per play, had a combined 66 more first downs than their opponents, and had a combined 18-2 turnover edge.   The Patriots had the 2 turnovers, no other blowout winner had a single one.  Sometimes superior teams lose due to turnovers and bad breaks, but that wasn’t the case on Sunday. 

Cluster of Favorites Smashes Bookies, Locals Hurt Worse:  Las Vegas bookmakers got popped pretty good Sunday, as when a cluster of favorites cover, bookies get hurt by parlays.  And it’s probably even worse for all the locals that the US has invited back into the pool by hassling offshore and online sportsbooks a couple of years ago.  Offshore sportsbooks, as well as most Vegas shops, get some buyback on inflated lines by big bettors who are looking for extra points.  A lot of locals get no such buyback and are completely dependent on a large public favorite day not happening. 

Games “Were What We Thought They Were”: There’s usually a number of “false result” games in the NFL, but that wasn’t the case in Sunday’s day of dominance.   The Bills gained only 167 yards against the Panthers on a puny 3.1 yards per play, but a 4-0 turnover edge carried the day for them.   The Steelers/Vikings game was a lot lower scoring than the 27-17 final score, as the Steelers 14-7 edge in the final quarter was two long defensive returns by Pittsburgh sandwiched around a Percy Harving kickoff return for the Vikes.   But other than those two, the games pretty much played out as the scores suggested.

NFL Halftime Bettors Take Note:  Two Sunday nights ago, the Falcons scored a TD in the last ten seconds of the first half, and continued that momentum into the second half.   On Sunday the Falcons gave up a TD in the last ten seconds of the half to Dallas (after three different rushers had shots at Tony Romo), setting the stage for a big second half run by the Cowboys.  And the effect of the Saints last second TD in the second quarter at Miami was obvious.  No doubt some second half betting specialists are way ahead on this one, but that last second (not just last minute, but last second) TD in the NFL really seems to carry into the second half, doesn’t it? 

London Calling: Student of all things leadership, Bill Belichick found my favorite London tourist spot on the Patriots working vacation this past weekend.  The most entertaining news item from the trip was the Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy reporting on the coverage of Tom Brady in the London press.  The cash-strapped Globe sent their columnist overseas and got a column that could have been done by an intern with a web connection.   

More Coverage, Less In Person: While there is an avalanche of coverage of the NFL from an ever-widening array of sources, less of it is in person.   The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has their columnists in heavy blogging mode, offering a multiple of the content they once did, but they sent only a single staffer, the Falcons beat reporter, to a recent Falcons game in San Francisco.  Fewer on-site reporters, more bloggers.   I spend a lot of time looking for information, and have rarely been burned by major newspaper staffers reporting something inaccurately.   But I’ve found a lot of errors by bloggers and other online types.   Certainly best to double-check the information you uncover for accuracy, particularly when the source isn’t reporting something first hand.

by Kevin O’Neill 

Pitching a shutout, the Patriots were over the total by themselves in the first half of their whipping of 1-AA’s Tennessee-Nashville on Sunday, leading 45-0 after 30 minutes with a total bet down from 41.5 down to 37.5 due to the weather.   Can’t say I can recall a team superseding the full game total in the first half any time recently.  Seems like a long time ago that the Titans came within a sliver of knocking off the mighty Steelers in their opener. The biggest change from last year’s 13-3 Titans outfit to this season’s winless edition is the loss of defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.   Schwartz appears to be building things the right way in Detroit, while his replacement, Chuck Cecil is understandably taking a ton of heat.   You don’t frequently see teams fail to cover consecutive games by 23, 19, and 50, but those are results that the boys from Nashville have taken into their bye week.  The Titans gave up 24 TD’s in 16 games last year.  They’ve given up 24 TD’s in 6 games this year.

Remember how stout Buffalo’s run defense was in New England in their opener?   The Bills held the Pats and Bucs to less than 130 yards combined in those first two games.  In the four games since their opponents have fun all over Buffalo for 961 yards.  Have you ever seen a coach look less joyful and more relieved following a dramatic upset win than Dick Jauron was after the 9.5-point underdog Bills knocked off the Jets on Sunday?   If you let the New York papers make your decisions for you, Rex Ryan has gone from the future of football to an obese blowhard in just three short weeks.  The Jets trip to Oakland suddenly looks winnable for the Raiders, winners as double-digit puppies against the Eagles.  But does Richard Seymour really mean it when he predicts a playoff appearance for Oakland?   The thought here is that Seymour’s looking to further cement his team-first reputation for his appearance on the free agent circuit this offseason.

The Chargers gain 6.0 yards per play, allowing 5.6.  The Chiefs gain 4.3 yards per play and allow 6.1.  Kansas City has been outyarded by over 190 yards 4 times in their 6 games thus far, with games against the sorry Raiders and pathetic Redskins being the exceptions.  And the Chargers really, really, really need to win if they want to be playing meaningful football from here on out.   Yet you can lay as little as 4 with the San Diego?   Not exactly two thumbs up from the marketplace for Mr. Norv Turner. 

Bill Belichick failed in Cleveland because he projected the personality of his mentor Bill Parcells, despite being a first time head coach.   An argument could be made that Belichick proteges have made the same mistake. Charlie Weis has been a failure at Notre Dame and Eric Mangini is failing with his second team, wearing out their welcome in part due to their abrasive personalities.   Lower key Romeo Crennell didn’t fail in Cleveland due to being a jackass, he just failed.   So Belichick has got to be pleased to see Josh McDaniels doing so well in Denver.   McDaniels is an impressive a new coach as you’re going to find, with organization, game planning, in-game strategy, clock managment, etc. all wired.   The Broncos are 6-0 not only straight up, but to the pointspread as well.   Has a rookie coach ever covered his first 6 games before?

The Rams have been more competitive than the final score indicated recently, outgained by only a combined 100 yards in consecutive losses to the Vikings, Niners, and Packers that saw them outscored by a combined 109-27.  Then they turn around and lose a 23-20 squeaker to the Jaguars despite being outgained 492-262.  Go figure.   The Colts run for only 79 yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry, both numbers placing them in the bottom five of the league.  That’ll catch up with them, won’t it?  Actually the way Manning’s playing, maybe it won’t. Who needs a running game when you are averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt against the sophisticated pass defenses of the NFL?  Indy’s 9.0 yards per pass attempt would put them in the top 10 in college pass passing offense, though you might want to back out the game against 1-AA Tennessee-Nashville for a more accurate number.

To the relief of Vegas and online sportsbooks, the NFL’s ugly puppies finally showed some signs of life last Sunday in the NFL, with dogs of more than +7 going 4-2 against the number, including a pair of straight up upsets of the Bills over Jets and Raiders over Eagles.    All three big favorites this week are on the road, with two-TD lays for the Colts at St. Louis and the Patriots against the Bucs in London.    The Packers opened a shade under a TD but the Cleveland flu news has seen that line rocket upward. 

Thanks for reading this. Good luck with your underdogs, favorites, overs, and unders this weekend. 

In a game that looked a lot more important before the two teams started underachieving this season, Florida State and North Carolina, with a combined 2-7 record against the spread, meet in Chapel Hill.  North Carolina is a 2.5 point home favorite at some books, while you have to lay 3 points at even money on the Heels at others. The total hovers around 48.5.  Weather is not anticipated to be a factor at all.

FSU’s offense is solid, but the Seminoles are saddled with a horrific defense.   The reverse is true for the Tar Heels, a team brandishing a fine defense but one that struggles offensively.   Yard per play stats tell you what these two teams are all about.  Against 1-A opponents, Florida State gains 6.2 yards per play and allows 7.4, while UNC gains 4.4 yards per play and allows 4.1.   Using yards per play against 1-A teams North Carolina has the #8 defense in the land.  Florida State’s offense is ranked 22nd and their defense is #118.

For years Mickey Andrews did fine work with Florida State’s defense.  But the Seminoles pass defense is a disaster area.   The ‘Noles are permitting 11 yards per pass attempt against 1-A opponents, ranking them 120th and last in all of major college football.   Despite this brutal defense, FSU is getting only a field goal or less on the road here.   But the line is kept in check by a putrid Carolina offense that scored 12 points against UConn (on 268 yards), 7 points against Georgia Tech (154 yards), and 3 points against Virginia (174 yards). 

UNC QB TJ Yates was respectable before getting hurt last season, but misses the three recievers that have departed Chapel Hill for the NFL.   Yates is also getting no help from his running game, which is averaging only 2.0 yards per attempt against 1-A opponents.   North Carolina is being kept in games by their defense.  Take away the Georgia Tech game and opponents’ high water marks against UNC are 17 points (East Carolina) and 254 yards (Virginia).  It’ll be interesting to see how the Heels D matches up with a Florida State offense led by the effective Christian Ponder playing quarterback behind a developing offensive line.

Good O/Bad D vs. Bad O/Good D can be a tough call to make.  Florida State has some injuries, while UNC is relatively healthy.  North Carolina students are on fall break, but the crowd doesn’t influence a lot of ACC games anyhow.  The Flaming Spears don’t intimidate the way they used to, a 1-4 record against 1-A teams will do that to a program.  And there’s more focus on whether or not Bobby Bowden will be back next year than what’s happening on the field this season.    But does North Carolina have the offensive weapons to take advantage?

by Kevin O’Neill 

There was a lot of bad football last Saturday, sloppy games full of turnovers.  Sluggish offenses were the rule, crisp offenses the exception.  As a result it was a big week for unders.  By one count, discounting pushes, there were 19 unders and 31 overs.  Your mileage, of course, may vary due to line moves.  The BCS conferences created all of the profit for under players, with the SEC and Big 10 leading the way with all 9 conference games from those two leagues going under the total, with most of them not even being close.

But while under players profited overall, if your card included the San Jose State/Fresno State game under the total, avert your eyes. Final minute histrionics are going to happen with great frequency, but the way San Jose State pushed the closing number of +20 and put their game at Fresno over the total deserves special mention.  With the score 41-14 San Jose backup QB Kyle Reed hooked up with Josh Harrison for a 59-yard TD completion with no time left.  They then kicked the extra point (something that’s always in question on the game’s final play) for the push.

This will win you a bar bet.  The leaders of the ACC’s two divisions are….Virginia and Boston College.   And the leader in the Big 12 North is…..Kansas State.   It’s equally shocking that Louisiana-Monroe is co-leader in the Sun Belt, but nobody cares about the Sun Belt, so let’s move on.   Got a few “why don’t you like Bret Bielema?” emails after suggesting here that the Wisconsin coach was a good reason not to follow the big move toward the Badgers last week.   Bielema had a good first year following Barry Alvarez, but he’s 11-19 against the spread since then, underperforming in big game after big game, like against Iowa on Saturday.

Former Texas Tech starting QB Taylor Potts replaces Sticks Sheffield due to a foot injury suffered by Sheffield in the Red Raiders win at Nebraska.   Potts was the starter before suffering a concussion, averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  Sheffield took the Red Raiders production to a higher level, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt with 12 TD’s and only 2 interceptions.  Potts’ numbers are bound to improve against an Aggie pass defense allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt in their two conference games.  

The Red Raiders opposing QB this Saturday, Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson, had his impressive streak of 225 passes without an interception broken in the second quarter of the Aggies blowout loss at Kansas State.  Johnson then threw 3 picks in a span of 23 passes.    Russell Wilson of NC State had a NCAA record skein of 379 passes without an interception broken against Wake Forest a couple of games ago.  From that point Wilson then threw 4 interceptions in less than 9 quarters.    Miniscule sample size but does a careful QB take more chances without the pressure of a pickless streak being broken?

The 4th quarter explosion at Missouri was nice, but Nebraska’s offense has been horrific in 7 of their last 8 quarters.  You can tell it’s been a while since Nebraska has had much success when the famously polite Husker fans boo starting QB Zac Lee and openly clamor for the elevation of backup Cody Green to the starting spot.    There’s a definite lack of patience in Lincoln, and their usually savvy fans should realize that Bill Callahan did a lot of damage that’s going to take some time to fix.  

Where reaching the time of the year where depth starts to be an issue.  I was looking for reasons to play Auburn against LSU in the Tiger vs. Tiger matchup, as LSU’s offense is really struggling right now.  But Auburn’s offense isn’t getting the same kind of production against the athletic defenses of the SEC while defensively they’re particlarly thin at the linebacker position.  Their 3 starting linebackers played the entire game last week and this is their 8th straight game without a week off.   Syracuse is another team with depth issues.   New coach Doug Marrone cleaned house after the Greg Robinson debacle, with 18 players leaving the program.   The difference in the Orangemen this week is that they’re rested and taking on an Akron team that provided them their most humiliating loss of last season.  

Good luck this weekend in your own personal college football wars.

How bad was Denver’s defense last season?   They were near the bottom of nearly every important defensive category.  And I’m told that when then-coach Mike Shanahan’s defensive staff evaluated their roster after the season, they found they had virtually no players that would be of interest to other teams.  So it’s pretty remarkable that it is the Bronco D that has led the team to a 5-0 start both straight up and against the spread.  

The allowances of Denver’s D have gone from 28 points per game to 9, 375 yards to 253, and 6.1 yards per play to 4.2 (with dramatic improvement in both run defense and pass defense).  And the Broncos D is highly efficient as well.  Last season Denver opponents had to gain only 13.4 yards to score a point.   This season the opposition has to gain over 28 yards to notch one measly point.   The offensively armed Bengals, Cowboys, and Patriots have been on the schedule already and only New England has scored more than 10 points against the Broncos this year, notching 17 yet losing in overtime.

Who deserves the credit?   New head coach Josh McDaniels was New England’s offensive coordinator last season.   And the Broncos offense is doing what it needs to do, but not a ton more than that.  The real hero of this transformation is defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who just couldn’t catch a break as 49ers head coach the past few years.

Perfect and Imperfect:  Marc Lawrence has always trumpeted the “In the Stats” approach, and looks for overvalued and undervalued teams by comparing their straight up record with how many times they’ve outscored their opponents.   The Redskins have won yardage in 3 of their 5 games against their schedule, but it isn’t paying off on the scoreboard.   The Vikes are 5-0 and the 49ers are 4-1 but both have been outgained by 3 of their 5 opponents. The Giants, Steelers, and Eagles have outgained all of their opponents so far.   Of all the hideous teams in the NFL, only the Bucs have now been outgained in every game.  Some football people really like young QB Josh Johnson, who was coached at the University of San Diego by Jim Harbaugh.  

Hall of Fame Bust On Hold: It’s great to have confidence in your defense, Rex Ryan, but that’s putrid reasoning behind the indefensible decision to sit on your timeouts in a circumstance where it is obvious you should be using them.  The Jets seem to specialize in coaches who exercise poor clock management.   Herm Edwards was the worst.  And why weren’t Ryan’s assistants imploring him to manage the end of the game better?  Or is dissent not something that would be welcome in Rex’s world?  And no, that isn’t sour grapes, Miami actually capped off our winning weekend by completing a 2-team teaser.

Massive Pointspreads:  I never thought I’d see a week in the NFL where there could be three 14-point spreads.  But that may be the case this week.   There are also three lines in the 9 to 9.5 range.  Might we see 6 double-digit underdogs in the NFL?  Probably not, as the public money that steams up favorites doesn’t seem to be in effect this season.

Notre Dame’s Clausen vs. USC’s Pass D:  There are some interesting matchups  on Saturday, and one of them is Casey Clausen vs. the USC pass defense.   Clausen is averaging 10.4 yards per pass attempt, this is massively improved from his freshman (5.1) and junior (7.2) seasons.  Can Clausen keep up the pace? In the last five years the only QB to average over 10 yards per attempt was David Johnson of Tulsa last season, though Johnson’s big numbers were marred somewhat by throwing 18 INT’s in 400 attempts. 

Clausen needs to try to keep that up against a USC defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt after finishing #1 in that category last year and #2 nationally the previous season.  The Trojan D is the only one in the country that has yet to allow a TD pass on the season, but the secondary has only 3 interceptions in 160 opponent pass attempts.

Notre Dame gave the Trojans a run for their  money in the famous 34-31 “Bush Push” loss in 2005, but since Southern Cal started to hit their stride in Pete Carroll’s second year, the Trojans have beaten the Irish by 20 or more every other season.  Series scores starting last year and going backward have been 38-3, 38-0, 44-24, 34-31, 41-10, 45-14, and 44-13. 

Florida State’s Catastrophic Pass Defense:   In recent years blame for the failures of the Florida State Seminoles have been placed firmly on the shoulders of their offense.   Mickey Andrews’ defense was always sound, and usually even better than their stats, accounting for the tough positions their offense would put them in due to turnovers and overall inefficiency.   But that’s not the case this year.  Florida State’s defense is allowing 10.4 yards per pass attempt, ranking them #120 out of 120 teams in that important statistic.  That number includes games against 1-AA Jacksonville State and QB-less Boston College.   This is a sudden collapse, as last year FSU ranked 28th nationally, allowing 6.2 yards per attempt.

Busing for Dollars:  Looking to reduce travel expenses, Cal is busing to UCLA for the Bears game against the Bruins, which you have to figure would add about 3 hours each way to the 377 mile one-way trip.   Miami’s doing the same thing to get to Orlando for their game with Central Florida, but their trip is only two-thirds as long, and probably will only add about an hour to what it would have been door-to-door.  It’ll be interesting to see how much energy the Hurricanes, and especially the Bears, have both early and late in those contests.   Here’s guessing  it isn’t a big handicapping factor, as the players are young and healthy and have a hotel stay to rest up the night before. 

Strange Box Scores:  Ohio State was outgained by Wisconsin 368-184 yet covered the 15-point spread in a 31-15 win.  How does that happen?  The Buckeyes earned only 8 first downs and only a single offensive TD, but two INT returns and a kickoff return provided the points they needed.  That hidden strong play by Wisconsin explains the big early week betting that took the Badgers from +1 to -3 against Iowa (the game has since settled at Wisconsin -2.5).  Betting Bret Bielema over Kirk Ferentz requires some major statistical validation. 

ACC Handicapping and Betting Notes:  How good would Virginia be if they started the season in late September ever year?   Since 2005 UVA is now 0-10 against the spread in their first two games of the season  (includes 1-AA games this year and last in which they  covered neither pointspread posted at a few books).   But they’re 12-5 against the spread in games 5-8.  Unfortunately, it is unlikely that trend players will have Al “Mr. October” Groh back next year to take advantage of those patterns.  Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis was 40-50 for 483 yards, 5 TD’s and no INT’s in the Blue Devils upset win over NC State.   “That’s about as good as it gets,”  said his coach David Cutcliffe.  Cutcliffe, who coached both Manning brothers, also said it was the best college game by a QB he’s ever seen.   Just a few weeks before Lewis was pulled from a game against Army for poor performance.  Bettors need to ascertain whether Lewis is reaching his long-promised potential or if he just freaked in the NC State game.

Big 12 Scoring Down:  The Big 12 was a TD festival last season, but Oklahoma and Texas enter their matchup a combined 1-7 to the under this year.  Last season the Oklahoma/over parlay cashed in 10 of the Sooners 13 lined games.   This season the reverse is true, with opponent/under 3 for 4 this far.  Unders are 3-5 in Big 12 conference games, but the only game of the 8 that saw the two teams score more points than they did the previous season was Kansas/Iowa State in the Jayhawks 41-36 win last Saturday.   Texas defeated Colorado by the identical 38-14 score they beat them by last season.  And the other six games have all been lower scoring than last season.  So scoring is down in the Big 12.  But that’s hardly news. After last year’s fireworks, how could it not be.

David Carruthers has withdrawn his guilty plea. The British sports betting executive was brought into Costa Rican sportsbook conglomerate BetOnSports in 2001 to be CEO.  Carruthers was part of an effort to legitimize the “American facing” company by BetOnSports founder Gary Kaplan.  The effort succeeded, for a while.  The company went public in London and Kaplan took out a total of $96 million out of the public offering and subsequent stock sales.   

The Feds cracked down on the BOS principals in 2006. Carruthers was arrested while changing planes in Dallas on a trip from London to Costa Rica.  Kaplan was found in the Dominican Republic a short while later.  Several other BetOnSports associates were also arrested.

Now that Kaplan has agreed to a plea deal, Carruthers has withdrawn his guilty plea from last April.  Carruthers has been residing in a St. Louis hotel for several years now as this case has drawn on.   Was he led to believe that he would be released for “time served”?  And has time been served here? Although not incarcerated, he has been subject to electronic monitoring, and is not free to come and go as he pleases.

In a case that has been sporadically covered by the St. Louis media, there have been no reports on a court hearing that was scheduled for yesterday.   We’ll nose around a little bit in the upcoming days to find out what’s going on here.

Cowboys Offensive But Not Over: Add up the yards per play offensively and the yards per play allowed defensively of NFL teams and nobody can come close to the total generated by the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys are gaining 6.7 yards per play, second only to the Colts (a sick 7.1).  Dallas is allowing 6.2 yards per play, which is #30 in the league.  So with all this offense, and poor defense, how is it that the Cowboys last two games have gone under by 20 points and 16 points?  Offenses aren’t very efficient in Cowboys games.  Dallas’ O requires 16.7 yards to gain a point, which indicates they are spinning their wheels a good bit.  But the Cowboys D gives up points begrudgingly, requiring opponents to go a full 19 yards to gain a point, which is 7th best in the league.   So there’s a ton of yards in Dallas games, but that offensive production isn’t being turned into points.  

The “Worldwide Wes” of the NFL? The top two wide receivers in college football’s Big 12 conference last season were Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree and Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant. Bryant was suspended for the season this week due to some questions about hospitality provided to him by Deion Sanders.  Crabtree finally signed this week with the 49ers after an ill-advised holdout, but not without a potential tampering charge filed by the Niners against the Jets.  NFL Network commentator Deion Sanders fingerprints are all over both situations. Why is Deion involved with the decisions of the clients of his former agent, Eugene Parker?   Good question, but something was likely in it for Deion. Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, who paid Sanders over $8 million of a year of half-hearted effort, is among those who will attest that Deion loves his money.   So is Deion feeding Parker clients, serving as the “Worldwide Wes” of the NFL?  Sanders also has a company that preps collegians for the draft called Prime U.

Very Good vs. Very Bad: 4 of 14 NFL games this weekend have double-digit pointspreads.  Two NFC East powers are favored by more than two TD’s, with the Eagles (over the Bucs), and the Giants (over the Raiders) favored by 15 points each.   The lines sure appear justified if the favorites care, as the Eagles and Giants both gain 1.3 yards per play more than their opponents, while the Bucs and Raiders each are outgained by 1.4 yards per play.  

The NFL See-Saw: It’s tough to be consistently good every single week, or consistently bad every week. The Eagles, Giants, and Steelers are the only teams to outgain all of their opponents this season.  The Bucs and Rams are the only teams to be outgained by everyone.  Both are being outgained by over 100 yards per game on the season.

Pity Missouri:  I had a conversation with a buddy of mine who is a St. Louis Cardinals fan about how painful the Thursday night loss must have been for him.   He told me it was awful, and his wife was even more upset than he was.  Especially with the shutout heading into the fourth quarter.  What?  Yup, he was talking Missouri Tigers, and I was talking St. Louis Cardinals, and they were both sources of pain for Show-Me-Staters on Thursday night.   And that’s hardly the worst of it, as Missouri’s NFL entrants, the Rams and Chiefs are both 0-4. They aren’t much better for bettors, a combined 1-7 against the spread, with the Rams narrow loss at Washington being the only cover for Missourians.

Bookies Crushed in the NFL Last Two Weeks:   A local Atlanta bookie today told me that he lost as much last weekend as he’s ever lost this early in the year.   All the popular teams he needed to stumble did well on Saturday, and then Sunday was a nightmare.  Favre’s Vikings and the over on Monday night hardly stemmed the tide.   Another was telling a similar tale, that the past couple of weeks have been very rough for him. NFL favorites are off to a good start so far this season, and local bookies are unlikely to have a lot of dog action to balance them off.   When favorites do well, locals often get crushed.

Pats D Getting Healthier?  Looks like Jerrod Mayo might play for the Patriots in Denver on Sunday.  With so much focus on Brady’s return, Mayo’s injury in week 1 has been overlooked.   The Patriots defense is not deep, and the second-yard linebacker out of Tennessee may be New England’s most important defender.