It sure seems like there are a lot of bad teams in the NFL, and there’s been plenty of talk about how there might be some historically dreadful teams in our midst.   There are seven 0-3 teams, which seems high, and some of them have been awful to start the season.    Of these seven, which clubs will prove to be the worst?

Let’s look back to last year for some clues.  There were six teams that started 0-3 last season, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, and St. Louis.  I broke down their 0-3 starts in 2008 into different categories:

1. Losing margin in the three games: 4 of the 6 teams had been within single digits of at least one opponent.  Only the Lions and Rams had lost all three games by double digits.

2. Yardage in the three games: the 6 teams that started 0-3 had been outgained in 17 of their 18 combined games.   The Houston Texans managed to outgain an opponent by 11 yards in a loss.  But all the others had been outgained in each game.   Most were at least competitive in a game or two, staying within 100 yards of an opponent.   Only the Lions and Rams had been outgained by 100+ yards by all three of their opponents.

3. Pointspread Covers:  The pointspread is the great equalizer, and four of the teams had covered a game.  Only the Lions and Rams were 0-3 against the pointspread.

The Lions and Rams were 2008’s worst teams, being the only NFL clubs to be outscored by over 200 points on the season.   Detroit famously finished 0-16, outscored by 249 points on the season, and St. Louis was 2-14, outscored by 233 points.  The Kansas City Chiefs also finished 2-14 but they were much more competitive than the other two, being outscored on the year by 149 point.

So the Lions and Rams ended up the worst teams, and were the only clubs to start 0-3 to fit into any of our categories.  And they both fit into all three of them.

How Do 2009’s Dregs Compare?   Tampa Bay, Carolina, St. Louis, Miami, Cleveland, Tennesse, and Kansas City have all started 0-3 in 2009.  Who fits into our scoring, yardage, and pointspread categories of shame?  

1. Losing Margin in the three games: Tampa Bay and Cleveland are the only two teams that have lost all three games by double digits.

2. Yardage in the three games:  Not a single team has been outgained by triple digits by all of their foes, though Cleveland and Kansas City have been outgained by over 200 yards twice.  Remarkably, the Chiefs actually outgained the Raiders 409-166 in their bizarre loss to Oakland.  But no team has failed to be at least mildly competitive in at least a single game.

3 Poinstpread Covers.  Only Tennessee and St. Louis have covered a pointspread thus far, covering one each.  Nobody else has covered a spread, with the Bucs, Panthers, Dolphins, Browns, and Chiefs all 0-3 to the number.

This leaves us with a pair of questions.   First, who’s worst?   Second, can you possibly bet these teams going forward?

Who’s the worst?   While nobody is waving the flag of ineptitude quite as clearly as the Rams and Lions were last year, Tampa Bay and Cleveland both fit into two of our three categories.  Though the Bucs were outgained by 311 yards on Sunday against the Giants, they were outgained by only 12 and 85 yards in their other two losses.   The Browns maintained contact with the Vikings, outgained by a respectable 42 yards in their opener, but since have been mauled twice, outgained by 239 yards and 293 yards in the two games since then.

Cleveland looks to be worse than anyone on this list.  But Tampa’s no prize. Is it any surprise that both of these clubs announced quarterback changes this week?    And though they have a win, don’t the Raiders have a chance to surpass all of these clubs with their poor play?

How can you possibly bet these horrible teams?  Should we consider all these teams to be “go againsts” going forward in our betting?   Probably not.  Last year’s “Stinky Six” rebounded against the pointspread the rest of the way, going 39-38-1.   The Lions were 7-6 against the spread in their final unlucky 13 games, while the Rams were 6-7 in the betting world.   Last year’s Browns had the worst record to the line, going 5-7-1 the rest of the way, but it was a sea of mediocrity the rest of the way.

Takeaways:  What to you take away from this look at winless teams?    First, it looks like there might not be anyone as bad as the Rams and Lions were last year.  If the Browns and the Bucs are the worst so far, there are reasons for them to play hard.  Both teams have new coaches, and the players know that no matter how bad they are, it wouldn’t be wise to quit on the guys who will have your fate in their hands after the season.  They could also (possibly) be sparked by their replacement quarterbacks.

Secondly, no matter how bad they are so far, these ”Stumbling Seven” are likely to cover about 50% of their pointspreads going forward, which is also true for the teams that look the best so far.   Simply betting against these teams because of their rough start is far from a sure-fire moneymaker.  

Missouri travels to Reno to take on Nevada on Friday night. Online sportbooks and Vegas books have Missouri favored by 7 with a total of 61.5. Hotel casinos favored by traveling Show-Me-Staters should be carrying the game at 7.5 if they know what they’re doing. These teams played in Columbia last September and it wasn’t pretty for the Wolf Pack. The Tigers rolled 69-17 on yardage of 651-362. It was men vs. boys athletically as you can see in the rockin’ highlights.

Granted, Missouri lost a ton of talent to the draft. But Mizzou wiped out a highly touted Illinois team in their opener, which they followed up with a dangerously close win over Bowling Green and a solid win over 1-AA Furman. New QB Blaine Gabbert has 8 TD’s and no interceptions. He’s gotta be licking his chops when he watches the Nevada secondary on film. The Wolf Pack are allowing over 12 yards per pass attempt in their two games.

Nevada was completely outclassed against a Notre Dame club that had no athletic edge in subsequent games against Michigan and Michigan State. After a week off the mistake-prone Wolf Pack lost at Colorado State 35-20 despite outgaining CSU. An 0-8 turnover disadvantage in their two losses defines Nevada’s season thus far. Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick seemingly peaked as a freshman, and is struggling in his third year in the pistol offense, with only 1 TD pass and 4 INT’s. His longest completion is for 32 yards and he’s averaging only 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

Warm, dry, windless weather is expected in Reno, with temps falling from the 80’s into the 70’s during the game. Northern Nevada’s not the easiest place to roll into and play, and altitude could become an issue. But despite the loss of talent that fueled their success the past couple of years, Mizzou appears to have some significant matchup advantages. Good luck if you decide to do anything with this game.

Since the start of last season, teams that ran for 200 yards or more were 37-2 in the NFL.    Last weekend they were 2-3.  Yep, the Titans, Cowboys, and Dolphins all ran for over 200 yards…..and lost.  Houston’s sieve-like defense is allowing 215 yards rushing and 244 yards passing per game.  Those are Conference USA type numbers, but in this instance we’re talking about the NFL’s Texans, not the collegiate Cougars.  

I hear from a pretty authoritative source that Donovan McNabb isn’t eager to take a painkilling shot that would enable him to play despite his rib injury.   With the beatable Chiefs on the docket this week and a bye on the horizon, starting Kevin Kolb this week is the likely scenario for the banged-up Philadelphians.  An Eagles beat writer concurs, calling McNabb’s participation “unlikely”.

Parity alert: the only game between 2-0 teams this week is Niners vs. Vikings.  Despite not even thinking about throwing downfield, Minnesota looks great.  But allowing only 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 2.7 yards per rush attempt against a pair of teams (Cardinals and Seahawks) who lit up their other opponent indicates that the Singletarian way of doing things is catching on in San Francisco.   Up until the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, Tom Brady’s protection was impeccable.  Now it seems awfully easy to pressure the Pats.   That’s masked by the fact he’s only been sacked once in two games, but the hurries and hits have been frequent.

Joe Montana thinks that playing out of a spread formation with a lot of shotgun hinders the development of a quarterback.  But is Graham Harrell in the CFL because of the shotgun, or because he lacks arm strength?  Jevan Snead of Ole’ Miss takes a lot of direct snaps, which is one reason why the NFL scouts love him, but he also has a big-time arm.  There are only a certain number of guys who can make all the downfield throws against the speed and complexity of an NFL defense. It appears to me that the NFL is using more shoutgun than ever, and we’re sure to see some numbers on that in a couple of weeks. 

Scoring is big and big news in the NFL.   But playing every over would only have you at 17-15 thus far. The median NFL scoring offense is getting 20 points per game.   The median NFL scoring defense is allowing 22.5 points per game.    Last year those numbers were 23 and 22 respectively.   So talk of increased scoring in the NFL is largely a New Orleans Saints production, with a few teams (also Cowboys, Ravens, Titans, Panthers, Eagles, etc.) seeing big scores in their first couple of games.   5 games this weekend are lined at 46.5 or higher.

Lots of great stuff in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly this week, including a college play out of a 120-59 system backed by strong matchup support, a small college favorite that has a big edge in the playmaking department, a college dog with a significant coaching advantage, an NFL dog with some matchup edges that’ll surprise you, and an NFL favorite that a 56-17 system says is poised for a blowout win.   And those just scratch the surface. You’ll get a ton of content, plays and ideas when you subscribe to The Max for just over $6 per week, so why not do so?   Call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe.

1. Georgia’s Defense: In Marc Richt’s first 95 games as Georgia head coach, his Bulldogs gave up 37 points or more twice.   In the last 12 games his Bulldogs have given up 37 or more points 7 times.   Recruiting gurus always rave about the talent and speed that matriculates to Athens.  That’s why the heat is on defensive coordinator Willie Martinez.  

2. Oklahoma State’s Offense: The one game that the UGA defense played well was against supposedly high-powered Oklahoma State. Houston (#101 defense last year) and Rice (#113 defense last year) have also slowed down the Cowboys.  Despite all their returning weaponry, the Cowboys have dropped from 487 yards per game last year to 364 yards per game this year.  On Saturday, Okie State gained only 351 yards against Rice, who gave up 516 yards to UAB (UAB?) and 560 yards to Texas Tech.   The Pickens Football Project has some injuries, but the lack of production against three defenses nobody will compare to the ‘85 Bears is startling.

3. USC’s Efficiency: There’s nothing wrong with USC that not being -3 in turnovers against a good team won’t fix.   Rushing yardage was 250-56 in favor of USC with Trojans going for 7.6 yards per rush to 1.7 for the Huskies.  That’s why a lot of smart people are betting on USC (even at the giant number against Wazzou) and against Washington this week.  The non-entity status of Mitch Mustain is just flat out strange. A solid starter for Arkansas as a true freshman, and the nation’s top QB recruit at the time, now he’s just buried on the Trojan depth chart.

4. East Carolina (and Skip Holtz’s Shot at the Notre Dame Job):  East Carolina knocked off West Virgina and Virgina Tech early, had a lull due to injuries, then shocked homestanding Tulsa in the CUSA championship game. Barely squeaking by always tough 1-AA entrant App State in their opener wasn’t alarming.  And losses to West Virginia and North Carolina are understandable on the surface.  But the combined 484-941 yardage deficit in those two games less so.   12th year senior Patrick Pinkney is averaging only 4.8 yards per pass attempt, down from 7.4 last year.  No matter how high Lou Holtz piles the pressure of expectations on Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, if Skip doesn’t turn it around, he won’t be in line in South Bend.

5. The Traditional 1PM Start Time: Lots of old-timers here in the South miss the traditional 1PM start time.  Knowing this, and free of TV dictating a start time, Clemson tried kick off the TCU game at 1PM.  Negative reaction from fans, presumably tailgaters, led Clemson to move it to 3:30 EDT.  With nearly every game televised somewhere (am I still paying for GamePlan?  If so, why?), how is a matchup as attractive as TCU/Clemson only available online?

6. The Job Security of Coaches: Washington hires Steve Sarkisian and knocks off USC after being 0-12 under Ty Willingham.  Syracuse, outgained by 3.8 miles in the previous 4 years under Greg Robinson, is now competitive and fighting hard under Doug Marrone, beating a 9-win Big 10 team that returned a lot of starters on Saturday.   No big influx of talent at either place, just a new attitude under a new sheriff.  Message board dwellers and boosters are watching, all ready to rachet up the pressure on the administrators responsible for the fate of their school’s football coach.  Patience with a guy like Frank Beamer (24-40-2 in his first 6 years at Virginia Tech) is a thing of the past.  Beamer would be a special teams coach somewhere right now if he had been born a dozen years later.

7. Paul Johnson’s Offense Against Athletic Defenses: PJ’s still a Top 5 head coach in my book, but it’s tough to ignore a single offensive TD against Clemson and 95 yards rushing against Miami.   Legacy note: Navy earned only 218 yards in losing to Pitt Saturday.  Are defensive coordinators catching up to the triple option?  If so, Johnson’s smart enough to adapt.

8. The Sanctity of Double Digit Favorites: Remember when being favored by double digits meant something? New Mexico is 0-3, has been outscored 122-29, outgained 1466-692, and is favored by 10 over New Mexico State.  Could the Lobos be the worst double digit favorite in college football since 0-10 Cal was favored by 12 at Rutgers to conclude the 2001 season?  The Bears won but didn’t cover that day.  Before you get too excited about taking points with the Aggies, realize that NMSU was down 31-0 after 3 quarters to UTEP, and were never really in their home loss to Idaho.  Sandwiched between those defeats, they beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 214th by Sagarin) by a field goal.

9. Las Vegas Booking College Football:  Most Vegas sportsbooks have no interest in taking a significant bet on a college football side or (especially) total until the initial battles are fought offshore at online sportsbooks.   Meanwhile, corporate consolidation means fewer unique lines are available.  If you’re heading to the desert, the Hilton and the M are the most aggressive books in town and have the most propositions to shoot at. 

 10. Male Sideline Reporters:  Tokenism, thy name is Jack Arute.

Good news about NFL betting in Delaware. Bettors aren’t just saddled with poor paying parlay cards. If they go up to the counter and ask, they can actually get legit parlay odds as well.

Not that you’d find this out in most of the media coverage. The articles on the Delaware offerings there just mention that three-team parlay cards pay 5.5 to 1 (expressed as 6.5 for 1 to make the payoff seem higher), the 4-teamers 10 to 1, and so on. It’s pretty clear that every reporter covering the story picks up a parlay card, asks the management folks a couple of cursory questions, and then orders a cheeseburger.

But you can’t blame the reporters. They don’t know a thing about sports betting, having no background in the activity at all. It’s like if a newspaper asked me to go cover a quilting competition. So they see all the cards lying around, pick one up, and report on the odds on the back. They never look up to the odds board and notice the slightly different, more up to date pointspreads, and ask “what’s this all about?”

So given the media’s lack of background, why wouldn’t the management people make it clear that people can bet 3-team parlays and teasers at the same odds that are paid at most Vegas and online sportsbooks? After all, it would attract more business.

So you wouldn’t know this from the newspapers, but when you actually explore the web sites of the racetracks offering the NFL parlays, you discover that you can actually walk up to the counter and play “off the board” parlays with more competitive odds. Three team parlays pay 6-1 instead of 5.5-1.

The catch is you can’t fill out a slip or punch out a card to play these. You actually have to go up to the counter and ask for them. But by doing so you get 9% more if your parlay wins.

Now there are actually some parlay cards in Nevada that are very strong propositions. But the value in them generally revolves around the fact that stale or inflated lines are still available. For instance, if you can parlay a trio of NFL 3-point underdogs as +3.5 point underdogs, you can expect a better ROI over time than if you got a 9% higher return but only got +3 on each. But assuming that inflated or stale lines aren’t available, the “off the board” parlays are better value than the cards. 6-1 for three teamers, 11-1 for 4-teamers, and so on isn’t bad. It’s pretty much the industry standard.

Their 3-team, 6-point teasers at +160 aren’t as good as a few books pay, but they are pretty much paying the industry standard. So it’s not a complete ripoff. They’ll do well with these, of course, as few people know how to play teasers correctly. But at least they aren’t blatantly fleecing people, which is the impression that you get from the news coverage.

So it’s nice to see that Delaware is offering legit parlay and teaser odds. It’s just too bad they aren’t clarifying the difference between the cards and the “off the board stuff” to the media covering them.

The NFL led a lawsuit that successfully (for now) has stopped Delaware’s plan to offer single game sports betting. They say their concern is to protect “the integrity of the game”.

Yet the owners of the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers actively promote betting on the NFL, even on and against their own team. Both the Glazer family (Bucs) and Randy Lerner (Browns) own Premier League soccer clubs that call these bookmaking firms their “betting partners”. And NFL broadcaster Fox Sports is owned by News Corp, which owns 39% of Skybet, an online bookmaking firm that offers a full menu of NFL betting action.

Details are in this video.

If you can’t see the video above, try this link.

The way the NFL sues Delaware to stop an activity their owners are actively promoting is curious. Yet if the State of Delaware brought any of this up in defending their plans for single-game sports betting against the NFL it is a well-kept secret.

We’ll have more information on the NFL and Delaware sports betting later this week.

Plenty of notes from the first full weekend of NFL and college football.

1. “Sports betting” began this weekend in Delaware with plenty of problems.  Long lines due to the need of managerial overseers in Vegas to approve bets.  You really need approval when you’re paying 5.5-1 on 3-teamers when industry standard is 6-1 and books have made money at 6.5-1?     Much more on the issue of NFL betting in Delaware this week, so come back to RealWorldSports.com for more.  
2. If you had the Duke/Army game under the total, avert your eyes.  Duke CB Leon Wright picked off Army passes and returned them for TD’s on consecutive plays with 1:48 and 1:32 remaining.  The second score put the game over the total.  Army’s 6-10, 283 pound slot receiver (not a misprint) Ali Villenueva then caught a TD pass on the game’s final play to round out the scoring for the 35-19 final
3. Thaddeus Lewis is a well-regarded QB for Duke and became only the second Dookie to notch 50 career TD passes (first had to be Ben Bennett, right?) in the win over Army but was pulled for ineffectiveness. (5-16 for 60 yards).  But Lewis is back in the lineup and Sean Renfree (7 for 8 in relief) will again be the backup this week according to Duke Coach David Cutcliffe.
4. Jim Tressel’s catching a lot of flack in Columbus about his time management and overall game strategy.   The end of the first half could have been clock managed better.  On the other hand, trusting his defense at the end of that game instead of kicking a long, long field goal gets little questioning from this corner.  But that offensive game plan sure was stodgy, wasn’t it?  Pryor doesn’t seem comfortable or confident, or at least he didn’t on Saturday night.
5. And speaking of that unimaginative offense, who would have thought a week-and-a-half ago that Buckeye types would be suggesting that maybe Ohio State could take a lesson from Ann Arbor? 
6. Sports handicapper Matty Baiungo has isolated a “pure fade” of a team that he’s going against again this week.  His opinion is supported by some solid statistical analysis as well. It’s one of 10 fully analyzed plays in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. and you can subscribe to “The Max” for a little more than $6 per week through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.
7. “Game Story Line of the Week” comes from Desmond Conner of the Hartford Courant in his gamer on the ugly UConn/North Carolina matchup.  Of the Tar Heels, Conner wrote, “if that was the 19th ranked team, this is going to be a bad year for college football.”
8. Syracuse’s road loss to Penn State was a rarity.  No, not that the Orangemen lost (though they are playing a lot harder than they did under Greg Robinson). It was a rarity because it was an actual road game.  SU’s second game on the road doesn’t take place until November 7th when they visit Pitt.
9. Georgia’s been losing offensive linemen left and right the past few years, including stud OT Trinton Sturdivant last week. Now the injury bug has hit the other side of the ball.  Senior defensive end Rod Battle is out of the year with an ACL tear.   This certainly doesn’t help the Dawgs, but UGA’s pass rush has been lacking the past couple of years, and this gives a young player a chance to step up.
10. A football bettor needs to make sure he’s getting full effort from the team he backs, and Colorado’s defense absolutely looked as though they quit on Dan Hawkins Friday night. Toledo notched over 300 yards both passing and rushing, with the total damage hitting 624 yards.   Despite that, Hawkins is likely to last the season due to the $3 million buyout required by his contract.  Apparently the Buffs athletic department isn’t sitting on a pile of cash right now.  Hawkins suggested that he had a potential 10-win team on his hands in the preseason, which is reminiscent of Jim Donnan saying “I’ve waited my whole life to coach a team like this,” before Quincy Carter’s disastrous final year at Georgia.
11. Technical handicapper Dave Fobare has a college play out of an angle that is 46-12 with the average cover margin of a stout 9 points per game.   It’s one of 10 fully analyzed plays in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. You can subscribe to The Max for a little more than $6 per week through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.
12. Talking to the press after Florida State’s narrow escape against 1-AA Jacksonville State, Bobby Bowden repeatedly referred to Jacksonville State as “Troy”.   The explanation that Bowden warned his team all week about how this game set up so similar to FSU’s narrow win over Troy a couple of years ago does make some sense. But the feeling persists that both FSU and Bowden would have been better off had the coaching legend step aside five years ago.  
13. Monday night was a bookie’s dream, particularly those who get a lot of “Favorite Freddies” playing and who had players with open teasers rolling into Monday night.  Both ugly dogs cover, with the Bills and Raiders keeping the Patriots and Chargers from covering teasers.  But neither dog wins outright in case there was some big money line action working on the dogs.  Nice night to be on the 11 side of the 11-10.
14. When a team turns the ball over 7 times in their opener, after turning the ball over 6 times in their playoff loss last year, the quarterback is going to take some heat.   But John Fox points out that the offensive line gave Jake Delhomme no chance on Sunday.  Jim Johnson must have been proud looking down on his Eagles defense.
15. How meaningless is preseason football?  The Eagles and the Falcons both looked lousy defensively all preseason long.  Yet they caused a combined 11 turnovers (4 ATL, 7 PHA) and dominated the opposing offenses.
16. If you think turnovers revert to the norm, you must be all over the Panthers plus the points at the Falcons on Sunday.   You’ve got the team that suffered a 2-7 turnover deficit taking points from the team that benefited from a 4-0 turnover edge.
17. Yeah, those who bet the Chiefs at any price, including the closing +13, have every right to bitch after seeing a late game 24-24 affair turn into 38-24.  But Baltimore’s yardage edge was 501-188, so you can’t complain too loudly.
18. Earl Bennett didn’t have a single catch last season.  But the Bears wideout has the advantage of having been Jay Cutler’s teammate at Vanderbilt.  Bennett was thrown to 13 times by Jay Cutler on Sunday night, catching 7 of the balls, his first career catches.   Was Bennett simply being ignored by the Packers or is the familiarity a crutch for Cutler?  In any event, after Cutler looked so great in the preseason, those 4 INT’s were a killer for Chicago.  
19. The NFL Network’s Deon Sanders is serving as a mouthpiece for his former agent, Eugene Parker.  Sanders claims that two teams were interested in trading for Michael Crabtree’s rights.  But San Francisco Chronicle reporter John Crumpacker properly labels Sanders’ claim as “ridiculous” , informing us that it is past the deadline to trade for the rights to a rookie.
20. Any collegians coming out into next year’s draft should cross Parker off their list of potential agents.   With the NFL’s slotting system, a rookie holdout is preposterous, yet Crabtree is asking for more money than those drafted several places ahead of him.  This holdout could well be a career killer.
21. Fawning coverage of Brett Favre’s performance on Sunday, yet he didn’t have to do much and what he did he didn’t do well.   When your team is running for more than 6 yards per rushing attempt and your opponent has to react to that, you should be averaging a lot more than 3.3 yards per pass attempt as a team.
22. A team that came a few seconds from winning the Super Bowl is visiting a team that was 5-11 last year, yet the homestanding 0-1 Jaguars are a 3-point favorite over the visiting Cardinals.  That line will likely only go up from there.  You never would have seen a Super Bowl taking points to a below .333 team in Week 2 a few years ago.
23. Oddswiz.com tells us that offshore sportsbooks handled the opening week rush pretty well.  Site crashes used to be the norm for unprepared online sportsbooks.  But things were pretty smooth last weekend.
24. I was in a sports bar/restaurant on Saturday night and there were two audible groans within a few minutes of each other when scores flashed showing that Florida State came back against Jacksonville State and Maryland pulled it out in OT against James Madison.   People just love the plucky little underdog, although JMU would undoubtedly blanch at such a characterization.
25. My colleague Erik Scheponik has an NFL play based on some strong matchup analysis that’s also supported by a 15-2 trend.   It’s one of 10 fully analyzed selections in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  Subscribe to The Max for a little more than $6 per issue through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for reading this far.  Good luck and be careful.

Sportsbook industry observer Oddswiz.com has a couple of interesting notes, seemingly in conflict with one another.    They note that the offshore and online sportsbook industry is one that has matured and stabilized.   While there are still some “Johnny Come Lately” types that should be avoided (as well as some that have been around for a while that should be avoided), it is pointed out that there are also a solid group of old warhorses that continue to operate successfully.  Obviously that success includes taking care of sports bettors and their money.

Despite that stability, they also have a report about an old standby book that is not paying people quickly.   At this time of year I would imagine the problem relates to payment processors and the like, as a sportsbook is unlikely to be in a cash flow quandry at the start of the football season.

How did this game get scheduled?

Toledo hosts Colorado tonight. Buffaloes are favored over Rockets by 3.5 at offshore and online sportsbooks and 4 in Vegas.  The total hovers around 54, while gametime weather in the 60’s and a 20% chance of rain.

Lots of questions at Colorado.  Such as:

• Does the coach’s son have a firm grip on the QB job? 
• How did this veteran offensive line go up against what appeared to be a shaky Colorado State defensive front and gain only 29 yards?  
• Why is mega-recruit Darrell Scott getting only two touches against Colorado State? 
• What are they doing traveling to take on a MAC school on a Friday night after a Sunday night game?
• Is there a coach on a hotter seat than Dan Hawkins?  
• Does his team want to save his job?

Purdue’s offense were like kids in a candy store against this Toledo D.   Purdue’s Ralph Bolden, injured last year,  ran for over 230 yards and said, “I was like, ‘I’m reading my keys and everything,’ then they hiked the ball,” he said. “I was really surprised at how big the hole was, and that I was able to do that off my first carry.”

Toledo hardly “brings it” on defense, but the Rockets did pass for 426 yards and notch 26 first downs against a relaxed Purdue defense.

How this game plays out probably depends upon whether or not unsettled Colorado “brings it” themselves on a short week.  This would be a short price to lay with superior athletes.  But can you trust the Buffs?

The defending champion Steelers take on the always tough Titans in the NFL’s “Kickoff Game”.   It looks like a nice night for football, though the possibility of a passing shower exists.  The Steelers opened this summer as a 5-point favorite and that line has gone to 6.5 at online sportsbooks, while there’s still some 6 to be had for Steeler backers in Las Vegas sportsbooks. The total opened at 36 and has been bet down to 35.

Since 2004, the defending Super Bowl champ has hosted a game on the Thurdsay night after Labor Day to begin the season.   Celebrating their championship seems to serve more as a motivator than a distraction. In those five games, the home team has had a substantial edge, winning all five games and covering at a 4-0-1 rate.  The first three all went over the total but the last two have stayed under.

Jeff Fisher is the best NFL coach to not have won a Super Bowl, and he has a long-term underdog record of 60% against the spread.   But his Titans are only 15-16 as a road dog the past five years.  Mike Tomlin enters his third year as Steelers coach and excells at getting his team up for a big game.

The Steelers lost 31-14 at Tennessee the week before Christmas last year, outgaining the Titans but suffering from a 0-4 turnover deficit.  That seems to have stuck with Pittsburgh, and the “desecration” of the Terribly Towels by Titan players certainly continues to resonate with emotional Steeler fans.  Of course, it’s not like either team needs any excess motivation in a spotlight game such as this one.