Real World Sports

Starting 5: Bounce Backs or Letdowns?

We’re already knee deep in Saturday’s huge college hoops card.  This has been a strong time of the year for us over the years, and not just because working on these teams every day for months leads to having a good feel for things.  Over the years, some powerful specialized handicapping techniques have been developed for the end of the college regular season, the conference tourneys, the NCAA’s, and the NBA stretch drive.  In fact, you can sign up now for all our plays for the remaining 7 weeks of college and NBA basketball for about $7 per day.  Call 770-649-1078 by noon on Saturday to take advantage of this special offer.

Let’s look at some teams that suffered disappointments this week, and see if we can project whether they’ll bounce back strong this weekend, or will be more likely to let down.

1. UAB: No game was more important this season for any team than Thursday night’s effort against Memphis was for the Blazers.  And don’t be misled by Memphis’ 71-60 margin.  Despite Robert Vaden’s 0 for 17 night (not a misprint) UAB led inside the 6 minute mark before things fell apart.  Now less than 48 hours later the Blazers have a date at mediocre East Carolina.  Mike Davis will need all the motivational tricks at his disposal to have this team ready for a Pirate group that has won only 5 of their last 18 games.  This game has flat spot written all over it, unless the talented Vaden decides to make this one his personal mission after Thursday night’s scoreless humiliation.

2. St. Joseph’s:  Take away their Big 5 intra-Philly games and Xavier is the team that St. Joe’s most wants to beat.   It didn’t happen on Thursday night, as the Hawks were knocked around 68-54 by Musketeer bunch that had dropped 3 straight road games.  St. Joe’s takes on an improved St. Bonnie outfit on Sunday, and likely won’t let down, as Tasheed Carr and the great Amhad Nivins will be celebrated on Senior Day on Hawk Hill.  Carr missed the Xavier game due to a mile concussion suffered in Tuesday’s practice, hopefully he’ll be able to play in his last home game on Sunday.

3. Nebraska:  With an 18-point lead with 14:23 to play on their home court, Nebraska somehow managed to lose to Texas A&M Tuesday night on an Aggie 3-pointer at the buzzer.  It’s probably a good sign that Husker senior Ade Dagundero took responsibility for the A&M disaster saying, “there’s no excuse on our guys’ part.  We  let the coaches absolutely down, and that’s on our seniors, man.”  The Huskers will need to be ready for Kansas State Saturday, as the Wildcats have won 7 of 9, are on a 6-2 pointspread run, and well remember getting blistered 73-51 in Lincoln.

4. Kentucky: The Wildcats seemed to be back on track, winning 3 of 4 following a 3 game losing streak, but they were thumped at South Carolina 77-59 this week in a game that saw them trailing by 25 at times.  They have now failed to cover the pointspread in 6 of their last 8 outings. Reports are swirling that talented sophomore AJ Stewart has quit the team.  Stewart’s not a critical cog, as his 11 points 2 weeks ago against Vandy was his most productive game of the season.  But that kind of distraction isn’t ideal as a solid LSU team invades Rupp Arena Saturday with point guard Bo Spencer healthy again.

5. Arizona: Arizona had played themselves into Pac 10 contention, but suffered their second straight loss on Thursday night.  Arizona got out to a 3-point halftime lead at Washington State, but the Wildcats only go 6 deep and the physical Cougars pulverized them to the tune of 43-24 in the second half. But after consecutive outings against slowpokes, Arizona gets to be involved in their preferred open-court style of game against league leader Washington on Saturday.  The Huskies beat Arizona State 73-70 in OT despite hitting only 2 of their 17 3-point attempts on Thursday night. Bettors are still cheering Arizona on, as the Wildcats have covered 7 of their last 9 pointspreads.

Whether your teams are off of embarrassing losses or just enjoyed invigorating success, good luck with all your basketball betting this weekend.  Give us a call at 770-649-1078 on Saturday morning if you’d like to benefit from our hard work through the end of the college tourneys and NBA regular season.

Starting 5: Why Friday Nights Offer NBA Bettors A “True” Handicap

Let’s see if a look at Friday night’s card can give basketball bettors an edge over the sportsbooks.

1. Friday nights tend to be more of a handicap of true strengths and matchups in the NBA, as the short card on Thursdays means you don’t have a lot of back-to-back situations on Fridays.  So fatigue isn’t ordinarily an issue, though rested doesn’t always mean focused in the NBA, especially for non-contenders down the stretch.

2. The two teams that aren’t rested may very well match up in the Finals.  Cleveland is unrested at San Antonio after their loss to Houston.  The Lakers have more of a challenge, as they’re in Denver, a longer trip at a higher elevation.  The Lakers only loss in their last 14 games was in an identical “unrested in altitude” situation, 113-109 to the Jazz on February 11th.  But last night against Nash-less Phoenix was so easy, with only Lamar Odom playing more than 27 minutes, LA may be fresher than expected.

3. The Detroit Pistons have been a very professional outfit in recent years, but for the first time in almost a decade, basketball bettors must try to get a handle on Detroit’s effort level not due to scheduling, lookahead, or letdown situations, but simply based on the apparent lack of that aforementioned professionalism.  And some Michiganders have had their fill of Rasheed Wallace, who was ejected with his 2nd technical with the Pistons down 3 with less than 8 minutes to go in their close loss in New Orleans.

4. No line yet, as the injury list in this one reads like the Stimulus Bill, but the Kings could conceivably be favored over the scorching hot (for them) Clippers. If so, it will be the 11th time the Kings have been favored this year.  5 of those were before Thanksgiving, including laying 2 points at home to the mighty Spurs.  Of course both teams were very different when the Spurs earned a 90-88 win on November 16th.

5. The Ivy League plays on Friday and Saturday nights, and Penn hadn’t been swept at home on Friday and Saturday nights by an Ivy opponent in 41 years.  It has now happened on consecutive weekends to the Quakers at the Palestra, where they’re 2-9 straight up, 0-7 against the spread on what should be a very strong home court.  Penn opens a 3.5-point favorite against a Yale team they’ve already beaten up in New Haven.  Yale is 6-3 against the pointspread as an underdog this season.

Good luck your Friday endeavors, pointspread and otherwise.

Starting 5: Small NBA Card While Pac Ten Buries Premier Matchup

Only a pair of NBA games and 35 main board college contests on Thursday night, but the pro games are a pair of beauties, while the top college affair won’t finish until Midnight or later for over three-quarters of us.

1. The Cavs are only favored by a point at Houston, which may seem a little short.  But nobody defends opposing superstars like Shane Battier and the Rockets are 23-6 at home.  Yao Ming is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, and he matches up with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is averaging 13 points and nearly 8 rebounds since returning in late January for the Cavs.

2. The Suns visit the Lakers in the late game.  Phoenix has won 4 of 5 since going uptempo, and have shot a mind-boggling 247-436 (56.6%) in those games.  But the 4 wins have been against lottery teams and of course now they’re lacking injured forward Stoudemire, while Steve Nash has a bad ankle. Nash is a game-time decision, and most of those suit up in a game of this magnitude.  But if you’re thinking of playing this one it will be worth having your ear to the ground after Thursday’s shootaround.

3. Bob Huggins return is huge news in the Queen City, with The Enquirer even picking the All-Huggins era team (first, second, and third teams).  Despite graduation rates and DUI’s, Huggins was always favored by Bearcat fans over his antagonists in the UC administration.  But despite all the hype, the real news is that both of these teams can play.  WVU and UC are lost in the Big East clutter, but the Mountaineers are one of the best defensive outfits in the country, and could’ve been elite if point guard Joe Mazzulla hadn’t been lost for the season early.  Huggins would want this badly even if it wasn’t his grand return to Cincinnati, as his Mountaineers got waxed 62-39 at home last year by UC, shooting 10-50, including 1-22 from 3-point land. Cincinnati had won and covered 7 of 9 before consecutive losses to Pitt and Louisville.

4. Memphis’ 54-game conference winning streak would be about a season shorter had UAB’s apparent game winning shot not been after the buzzer in Bartow Arena last season. Memphis returns to the scene of their monster comeback (9-1 in the last 1:23) that spurred a near-brawl between UAB fans and Memphis players. Speaking of streaks, that heartbreaker was the only home loss for UAB in their last 27 outings.  Earlier in the season UAB hung around for a half but lost by 13 in Memphis.  UAB’s a thin team, not going much more than 6 deep with their starters playing over 80% of the minutes ordinarily. UAB’s Robert Vaden deserves more pub, but can he carry his Blazers against the much deeper Tigers?

5. A quartet of teams have 4 or 5 losses in Pac 10 play, but the winner of the Arizona State/Washington game will get some separation and will be in first place all by themselves.  The Huskies walloped the Sun Devils 84-71 in Tempe earlier this season. In that one Huskies had the edge from both lines, 50%-26% from 3-point land while notching 26 points from the charity stripe.   UW opens as a 4-point favorite, and it should be a good one for those with Fox Sports Regional access who don’t mind staying up until 1AM Eastern, Midnight Central. Tough for the Pac Ten to complain about East Coast bias when over 75% of the people in the US have to stay up until the wee hours to watch.

Good luck in your personal battle with the sportsbooks on Thursday night.

Starting 5: Rodeo Wrap Up

Here’s a look at a 5 factors to think about as you take it to the sportsbooks on Wednesday night.

1. Off of their celebrated “Rodeo Road Trip”, San Antonio hosts Portland tonight and it is a unique situation for the Spurs.  They’re playing their second consecutive home game.  The last time they played a game without a flight since the previous outing was 15 games ago. Of course they’re unrested, having whipped up on the reeling Mavs last night.

2. The Blazers also played last night.  Portland just kept fighting back from a 18-point first half deficit in Houston, notching 10-0 and 12-0 runs in the second half.  All that effort set up a tough defeat for under players, as 12 points in the last 20 seconds put the game over the total by a bucket.

3. Guard-oriented Marquette, at 23-4, hosts the frontcourt forces of 25-2 Connecticut in tonight’s premier college contest.  Despite their gaudy straight-up marks, the power of the pointspread is shown by the fact that neither the Eagles (11-10) nor the Huskies (12-11) has a profitable mark against the number for those playing at -110.

4. Kentucky seeks revenge tonight against a South Carolina team that beat them as 8.5 to 9-point dogs in Lexington on January 31. It’s easy to criticize teams for playing cakey preseason schedules.  And South Carolina played a bunch of dregs, leaving the state before January only to take on mighty Princeton in December, with the Ivy Leaguers being their only main board opposition before a December 30th game with Clemson. But former Western Kentucky mentor Darrin Horn wanted to ease into his system in his first year in Columbia and it’s paying off for the Gamecocks, who are making a real tourney push.

5. As soft as Notre Dame’s defense is, should they really be laying 14 points to Rutgers? Maybe, as the Scarlet Knights shot 52.1% (25-48) from the field and 85.7% (12-14) from the line in a double-digit loss at Villanova last week. It’s tough to shoot that well and never be within single digits in the last 6 minutes of the game.  RU then suffered an 18-point home loss to West Virginia over the weekend.   That being said, Rutgers covered the big number against ‘nova, and have covered 5 of their last 7. Big East foes are struggling to maintain interest in a team whose only conference win is against even more dreadful Depaul.

Good luck in your sportsbook battles tonight.

Starting 5: NBA & College Questions

If you know the answer to the following questions, you’re in good shape for your attack on Vegas and offshore sportsbooks on Sunday.

1. Will Toronto’s Early Attack Work?  The Raptors aren’t any good, but they are often effective in these early Sunday home games by going right to the attack against opponents who still rubbing the sleep from their eyes.  Of course that style of play would be playing right into the Knicks’ hands.  Will the Raptors alter their usual Sunday strategy?  Totals players want to know.

2. Can the Suns Control Pace Against the Celtics?  With new head coach Alvin Gentry committed to running and spreading the floor to open up the middle, the Suns are 3-0 with the wins being by a combined 422-337.  Of course, those wins were against the Clippers (twice) and Thunder, a pair of teams that make anyone’s list of bottom 5 defenses.  Boston will be different, but Boston is without Kevin Garnett, and they are prone to playing faster games when KG-less.

3. Can Syracuse Step Up? Syracuse is 1-6 both straight up and against the spread against Big East teams that entered the weekend with a winning record. Boeheim’s bunch appears to be in a good spot here, with over a week off and in a solid revenge spot on their home court.  This dinged up Syracuse used the time off to do some healing, and the return to health of Arinze Onuaku is particularly important.  Syracuse’s only win and cover against a winning Big East team was in a similarly good spot at home against West Virginia.  Can they take advantage of this “rest & revenge” situation to gain a second quality conference win?

4. How Ugly Will the Big Ten Be Today?  After Purdue won but failed to cover their home game against Indiana Saturday, there have been 28 Big Ten conference games in February.  26 times a team has failed to reach 60 points.  10 of those low scorers stayed below 50. Yikes.  Be prepared for an unattractive trio of games in that loop today.

5. Who wins the battle of Arizona?   A lot of people saw ascendant Arizona State taking over the Grand Canyon State when the Sun Devils beat the Wildcats 53-47 in a Big 10-type game that saw both teams shoot below 30% from the field.  But ‘zona has won 7 straight since then.  ASU has won 4 straight themselves.  Those streaks combine for 10-1 against the spread, as Arizona’s 3-point win laying 4 at Oregon State is the lone non-cover by these two hot teams as of late.

Good luck on Sunday.

Starting 5: Bracket Buster A Tired Concept

Here are some news, notes, thoughts, and ideas for Saturday board.  With 101 games on the college basketball betting board and only 5 contests available for NBA betting, please forgive the focus on the college ranks.

1. The tired “Bracket Buster” concept seems to have lost a lot of juice, resulting in half the board simply looking like a December Saturday.  Maybe it’s because the Missouri Valley, annually the deepest “mid-major” conference, is so down this year, contributing to a lack of mid-major buzz.  St. Mary’s hosting Utah State and Butler traveling to Davidson are interesting games, but those teams seem like relatively safe bids even with a conference tourney loss.  Of course this assumes that Mills is back for St. Mary’s and the Gaels are judged by the committee based on their performance with the Aussie point guard in the lineup.

2.  Take those four teams and match them up against Georgetown, USC, Michigan, and Miami-FL?  Now you’re talking true “Bracket Buster”.  Not that the power conferences will ever allow that to happen.

3. It’s not a picture postcard day on the Southern California beaches today, 70 and cloudy. Still, Wisconsin-Green Bay’s visit to Long Beach and Montana State’s trip to Santa Barbara have to include an element of distraction for the arctic-dwelling Phoenix and Bobcats, don’t they?

4. Usually dreadfully low scoring game occur in conferences that don’t have the kind of athleticism that results in a fleet of scorers on everyone’s roster, like the Horizon, Colonial, Missouri Valley, etc. That’s what made Penn State’s hideous 38-33 win over Illinois in the mighty Big Ten particularly shocking.  The Nittany Lions “broke open” the game with 4 free throws in the last 17 seconds of a game where the charity stripe was the difference, as Illinois failed to get to the line.  Yep, not a single free throw attempt for the Illini.  Both teams had the same number of turnovers as they did field goals, 15/15 for Illinois and 13/13 for Penn State.

5. How do college upsets happen?  Frequently the answer can be found outside the 3-point circle.  The Charlotte 49ers were a dreadful 30-134 (22.3%)  on their 3’s in their previous 6 lined games, but a 8-19 (42.1%) night from behind the arc led them to a 65-60 win over Xavier. The Musketeers shot only 4-15 (26.7%) from long range, their second worst 3-point shooting performance in their last 15 games.

Thanks for reading this far. Good luck in your battle against Vegas and the offshore sportsbooks on Saturday.

Starting 5: Who Has the Edge Off the Break?

The NBA returns on Tuesday night, and that leads off our 5 observations of interest to basketball bettors.

1. What’s the smart bet in the NBA off the All Star break?  Do you attack the offshore sportsbooks and Vegas boys with favorites or dogs?  The answer has varied the past couple of years.  Last season on the first night back, favorites went 3-4-2, and it is worth noting that all 4 dogs that covered not only won outright but covered by 15 points or more.  But you wouldn’t have expected any of it, considering that on the first day back after 2007’s All Star game favorites went 6-3 against the pointspread, and only won covering dog won outright.  Nothing meaningful to be found in this short sample size.

2. Totals had a similar split.  Last season’s 6-3 to the over wouldn’t have been expected considering that overs only went 4-5 the previous year.  I’ll likely do some more work on this Tuesday morning, exploring another year or two of data to see if there’s more of a pattern than there appears to be,  but it doesn’t look like there’s much there.  Better teams aren’t necessarily going to come out with more enthusiasm than worse teams.  Nor are the defenses ahead of the offense or vice versa. Afraid we all have to actually do our work for the Tuesday night card.

3. One thought that has always made sense in theory is “All Star Momentum Interruption”.  That is, the hot teams have the misfortune of having their momentum derailed by the All Star break, while the 4 to 5 day break is the pause that refreshes a team on a bad run.  There won’t be much to test that theory this season, as there simply aren’t many teams that are on a lengthy winning or losing streak for us to look to turn around.  The Sixers have prevailed in 4 straight games, the Warriors have a 3-game winning streak, and nobody else has won more than 2 in a row.  The 4 teams on losing streaks of more than 2 games are the Knicks (6 games while banged up on a lengthy western trip), the Kings (5 straight losses, to be expected considering they’re playing .204 basketball), Timberwolves (dropping 4 in a row, losing the invaluable Al Jefferson for the season in the process), and aging, fading Pistons (3 consecutive defeats heading into the break).

4. The college game of the night takes place in West Lafayette, Indiana, as the two best teams in the Big 10 match up.  Michigan State has withstood the loss of Raymar Morgan better than Purdue has persevered without Robbie Hummel.  It looks like mono victim Morgan will play, though not start, for the Spartans. Hummel’s weekend return for Purdue at Iowa resulted in only 1 for 7 shooting but despite his gimpy back he offered a lift with his defense and overall presence. This is only the second time all season that Purdue has been favored by less than 6 at home.  In December 2-point home favorite Purdue was humiliated by Duke 76-60.

5. Bettors who held USC +7.5 tickets on Sunday night (present company included) looked to be in pretty good shape in the final minute when Southern Cal’s Daniel Hackett scored and was fouled going to the hoop, as the “and 1″ free throw could have made it a 3-point game.  Alas, two officials saw it different ways and though the play was clearly a block, the erroneous charge call prevailed.  Trojan coach Tim Floyd exploded, storming the court and earning a double technical foul and ejection.  The free throws put the game out of reach, earning Floyd the well-deserved disdain of both Trojan bettors and the Los Angeles Times‘ Adam Rose. 

The Trojan loss was no fun, but we still enjoyed a 60% week against the pointspread for our private clients.  Our NBA is 59.3% against the pointspread on the season, and has won 5 of the previous 6 seasons.  Our college is 57% over nearly 500 plays since the start of the 2006-2007 season when we rejiggered our methods to go much heavier on the stats.   All these results are our actual documented performance as tallied by The Sports Monitor.   We’re entering our highest confidence time of the year and with our “Beyond the Tourneys” special package you can get all our college and NBA plays through the college tournaments and the end of the NBA regular season (we don’t do the NBA playoffs) for less than $8 per day.  Call me at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Good luck on Tuesday, and be careful.

Starting 5: Pitt vs. UConn Enlivens Quiet Night

Only a trio of games on the main board Monday night, but Vegas and online sportsbooks will be busy taking bets on a big one as #4 Pitt visits top-ranked UConn. Let’s take a look.

1. UConn opens -3 with a total of 136.  The Huskies won the only matchup between these two teams last season. Homestanding UConn broke open a 51-51 deadlock with 2:32 left to run to a 60-53 win as 4-point favorites in that one. Key stats in last year’s game were Pitt’s 2-16 from 3-point land and UConn’s 18-21 from the foul line.

2. This is UConn’s first real challenge without Jerome Dyson.  Dyson is a veteran and Connecticut’s #2 scorer.  Importantly, he was also their #1 perimeter defender.  But the Huskies are deep and experienced at guard, and are confident that Dyson’s injury will not derail their goals.

3. According to his coach Jamie Dixon, Levance Fields of Pitt is playing as well as any point guard in the country right now.  And who can argue with 56 assists and only 6 turnovers in Pitt’s last 5 games?  The Panthers dismantled a Cincinnati team that was playing some decent basketball on Saturday night, 85-69. Pitt shot 31-46 (67.4%) in their win over the Bearcats.

4. Hasheem Thabeet has been immense.  The towering UConn center has blocked over 7 shots per game in his last 5 contests.  Thabeet’s shot blocks don’t tell the whole story, as many shots are altered or not taken due to his presence.  UConn has held their last 7 opponents to 38.6% shooting or less, and with their best performances saved for offensively proficient oppponents Syracuse (31.7%), Providence (33.3%), and Notre Dame (32.9%) .   Pitt is not nearly as effective defensively, as their last 11 opponents have all shot 39.3% or better.

5. With their powerhouse defense, no surprise that 12 of the last 15 UConn games have gone under the total.  Pitt is known for their strong home court edge, but away from the Petersen Events Center they’re 6-3 against the pointspread this season, and 13-6 to the number overall.

Good luck with this game, and all of Monday night’s mini-card.

Starting 5: Contrary to Media Opinion, The Mountain West is Overrated

Here’s a handful of tidbits to kick start your Saturday college hoops analysis, including the contrarian viewpoint to the “Mountain West is gloriously underrated” stampede.

1. In Thursday’s Starting 5 it was pointed out that Oregon State, though getting a ton of “Obama’s brother-in-law is the coach!!!” publicity, and being truly improved, was not covering pointspreads.  It happened again in rather bitter style for OSU backers that very night. Easterners who went to bed with the Beavers down only 36-35 at halftime with Oregon State +16.5  tickets in their pockets (actually those tickets would be resting offshore in their internet wagering accounts wouldn’t they?) must have been horrified to awaken to a 79-60 Washington victory.

2. That Oregon State/UW game was a good example of when a first-half wager may make sense.  We’re at a time of the year when big dogs who aren’t taken seriously by superior opponents can get off to a quick start against the sleepy foes.  But then the favorite awakens after a halftime tongue-lashing from their disgusted coaches. Eventually, the superior talent and depth wears down the outclassed opponent.   Don’t be surprised if your big dogs in good spots perform better in the first half than they do in the full game from here on out.

3. There’s a ton of media love for the Mountain West Conference, both regionally and nationally, as well as nationally (ESPN subscription required) and regionally.   While Utah, San Diego State, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV are all nice teams, and all have a quality non-conference wins, there are a couple of things that the media isn’t really noticing in their rush to annoint these clubs as NCAA quality.  The bottom four teams in the league are lousy, as TCU, Wyoming, Colorado State, and Air Force are a combined 2-22 against the aforementioned top 5 teams.   And those top 5 aren’t getting quality road wins, as the road team is 1-10 when these teams face one another.   So the top teams are beating all the bad teams, but not registering quality road wins?  Is that really all that noteworthy?

4. The jury was out on Kansas State coach Bill Martin this season.  The Wildcats had a lot of success in his rookie year after Bob Huggins left, but with the departures of Michael Beasley and the underrated Bill Walker, how would a young KSU team perform this season? The answer early was “not all that good”, as the Wildcats started 0-4 in the Big 12.  But there’s a new set of facts to deal with, as KSU has since peeled off 6 wins in a row, covering the spread in their last 5.   As is usually the case, this turnaround took place with defense.  4 of their first 5 opponents shot 50% or better, but in their last 5 games KSU has held their opponents to 43% or less.    During their resurgence, KSU has held A&M, Iowa State and Missouri below 40% from the field.  We’ll see how improved they really are on Saturday when Kansas comes calling for an in-state hatefest.

5. No NBA due to the break, but not counting the added games, there are 80 games on the board for Saturday.  So we better all get cracking.

Good luck today.  And be careful.   We’ll be back on Monday with your next “Starting 5″.

Super Bowl Wagering Decline Symptomatic of Vegas Financial Freefall

Gambling revenue declined 23% in December in Nevada, the 11th straight monthly decline. That’s no surprise given the current economic climate.   And the largesse that casinos are bestowing on their better customers indicates the hard times that are hitting Las Vegas particularly forcefully.

A medium-rolling (allows himself to lose $5,000 at the tables in a weekend) Californian tells me that Vegas casinos are so desperate for his action that they’ve upped the ante considerably on what they offer him to visit.  While he used to be at the “room, food, and beverage” level, he’s now being offered shopping sprees, concert tickets, designer clothing, spa comps, a suite, and other spiffs to visit.  He estimates the volume of what he’s being offered is worth 3 to 4 times what it was a year ago at this time.

That’s an indication that the money isn’t flowing through Vegas the way it used to not all that long ago. So while some in the industry didn’t think that Super Bowl wagering would suffer, it was actually off11.5% from last year.

The Steelers won without covering in their last minute thriller over the Cardinals, and combined with all the prop wagering resulted in Nevada sports books winning $6.67 million on wagering volume of $81.5 million.  The 8.2% hold is an improvement over last year, when the books had a rare loss when bettors were along for the ride when the Giants upset the Patriots.  But before that you have to go back to the Bucs 2003 shellacking of the Raiders to find a worse result in both hold percentage and amount won.

The profits were welcome, but even the most heavily bet sporting event is a relative nickel dropping in the change bucket compared to the receipts from casino gambling.   As an indicator of overall wagering industry health, Nevada is focused more on the gross than the net when it comes to Super Bowl wagering.  The 11.5% decline in Super Bowl wagering volume is not a welcome sign for Sin City, and confirms the dramatic decline in overall gambling volume over the past year.

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