With all four Wild Card Weekend NFL road teams being seen as the better team by the oddsmakers (no home teams were favored on the openers, despite the home field advantage), it is interesting to see the move toward the Cardinals.  Arizona dropped 5 of 7 down the stretch and it is safe to say that no team has ever before hosted a playoff game in a season where they lost four games by 21 or more.

So why the betting action the Cardinals, taking them from 2.5-point underdog to 1.5-point favorite?  Surprisingly, 9-7 Arizona has better stats than 11-5 Atlanta.  The Cardinals gain 5.9 yards per play and give up 5.3, while the Falcons barely outgain their opponents on a yards per play basis, 5.7 to 5.6.

But what to make of those Cardinal stats?  In those aforementioned four big losses they gave up 46.5 points per game.  But that was offset by some gaudy numbers earned going 6-0 against divisional foes San Francisco (before they got decent), Seattle, and St. Louis.

The Falcons, on the other hand, outplay their stats with regularity.  Atlanta went 3-2 against foes that made the playoffs but outgained their opponent in only one of those games.  Rookie sensation Matt Ryan has faded, with only 3 TD passes and 5 interceptions in Atlanta’s last four outings.   But the Falcons did all the little things to win important big games they.

This game is certainly quite a puzzle, and neither “Atlanta plays great as Arizona dies like the dogs they are” nor “Talented Cardinals come out flaming hot in front of wild home crowd as Falcons fall back to earth” would be a terribly surprising scenario.  It will be interesting to see if the flood of Cardinals money is correct.