More than ever before, bettors need to pay attention to the status of a coach in a troubled program, and need to be aware of the mindset of a team whose coach is in trouble.  Internet message boards and sports talk radio create enormous pressure in some of these college towns.  Some of the teams will fight for their coach.  Others simply don’t care about the fate of the head man.

Let’s look at a few programs, their coaching situations, and how the players will react to the situation they’re in.

Clemson:  Has there ever been as much negativity towards a college coach as that leveled by Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper, the preseason ACC Player of the Year?  Hey, if Tommy Bowden tosses you under the bus, isn’t turnabout fair play?  When the receivers coach takes over and fires the offensive coordinator, you know that the staff has been rife with dissension.  Can the Tigers come together as one, or has there been too much sniping?  Interim coach Dabo Swinney (Dabo’s of the world, unite!) said in his introductory press conference Monday night that the Tigers are going with more option this week, but Georgia Tech sees that every day in practice.  If Clemson doesn’t get the job done against the Jackets don’t hold it against them, as it is a tough matchup.  Instead, focus on their emotional state.  Win or lose, do they look like they are trying to build for the future or are they playing out the string for a lame duck coach?

Tennessee:  Last year Tennessee won the SEC Eastern Division, over Sugar Bowl champ Georgia, Heisman Trophy honoree Tim Tebow’s Florida, and additional stiff competition.  Now in a truly stunning interview, Tennessee’s athletic director is telling a reporter that they have the money to pay off the $6 million that Phil Fulmer has coming to him immediately, while not ruling out a midseason firing.  Is the UT brass afraid that Clemson will scoop up the coach the Vols have their eye on (Will Muschamp?).   What do the players think of this?  They came to Knoxville to play for SEC championships and build towards a NFL career and now they’re 0-4 against BCS conference opponents.  Is this team in the tank, or do they show some pride?

Really Awful Teams, like Syracuse and Washington:  Coaches like Greg Robinson (the East Coast Ty Willingham) and Ty Willingham (the West Coast Greg Robinson) are dead men walking, and why would the players really be all that interested in laying it on the line for them?  After all, they’re probably seen by the roster as the guys who ruined the players’ careers by driving the program into a ditch.  However, the coaches of their opponents simply have no shot at motivating their club to take on these hideous clubs.  As a result, a horrific team like Syracuse actually had chances to win in the fourth quarter against Pitt and West Virginia the past two weeks (though Robinson seemingly did everything he could to avoid it).  How can Oregon State, off a 66-13 win over Washington State, be interested in their game in Seattle this week against UW.   That reality is why that line looks low to the naked eye.

Football bettors need to imagine what’s going on in the minds of the players of these college teams that are having disappointing seasons, and in the minds of their opponents as well.

57%+ the last 5+ Years in College Football: Focusing on the mindset of college football teams is one tool that has led us to a pointspread mark 0f over 57% since the start of the 2003 season.  If you’re interested in taking advantage of our college and NFL expertise, call 1-770-649-1078 to find out about a $100 discount on my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service.

No post-Super Bowl letdown for the Giants, who are the best team in the league thus far.  Raw yardage isn’t the best way to judge teams, but those official NFL numbers ring true in this instance, and with the #1 offense and the #3 defense, the New Yorkers are far and away the best team.   The only other teams in the league that rank top ten in both offense and defense are the Dolphins (10th/7th) and the Eagles (9th/6th).  The Giants are one of only two clubs that have outgained all their opponents.  The schedule has been weak (Rams, Bengals) and Seattle came out incredibly listless Sunday, but New York is outgaining their opponents by 195 yards per game, and nobody else is even close to that. In the first 33:03 Sunday the Giants had TD drives of 91, 75, 73, and 80 yards and field goal drives of 48 and 60 yards.  That’s 427 yards for 34 points in a sliver over 33 minutes.  Not bad.

Under players were tearing their hair out Monday night. 57 points were scored in the Vikings comeback win over the Saints, and while the 645 yards gained in the game, and the resultant 11.45 yards per point in the game, were low for the score, it wasn’t outrageous.  But amazingly, 34 of those points were scored on only 23 yards of total offense.  Minnesota’s blocked kickoff return, Reggie Bush’s two punt returns, a 5-yard Vikes TD drive (after a Brees fumble), and two field goal drives of 4 and 14 led to 34 points.  The remaining 611 yards of offense led to only 23 points.   Bizarre.

The Saints actually outgained the Vikes 375-270.  Has their ever before been a team that scored two special teams TD’s and outgained their opponent by over 100 yards yet failed to win?

The Rams are not only 0-4 straight up, but they’re 0-4 against the spread, and it hasn’t even been close.  St. Louis has failed to cover by 26, 19.5, 16, and 8.5.  Not only have they failed to cover a spread, they’ve failed to cover a seven-point teaser.

In my Maximum Profit Football Newsletter (”The Max”) by colleague Erik Scheponik points out that the Chargers forced 48 turnovers last season, but only 8 in their first 5 games this year.  Want some picks? 12 completely analyzed college and NFL games are available for you each week for only $7 per week when you subscribe to The Max by calling 1-770-649-1078 right now.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

Georgia has called for “blackouts” three of the last six times that the Bulldogs have had the choice of uniform color.  Can’t opposing coaches play the “they don’t respect us enough to have a blackout” card the rest of the way? Speaking of blackouts, Middle Tennessee State had one in their exciting last second win against Florida Atlantic.  Unfortunately empty seats outnumbered black-clad Blue Raiders fans by about a 3-1 margin, lessening the desired effect.  We’re told that exposure is important, but do these Tuesday night Sun Belt TV games in front of high school sized crowds in 25,000 seat stadiums really do anything to boost your recruiting?

Arkansas outrushed opponents by 125 yards per game last season.  Of course that was with Houston Nutt coaching Felix Jones and Darren McFadden.  With those first-round running backs gone, a new offense and a depleted defense, times have changed in Fayetteville.  While Alabama, Texas, and Florida is quite a scheduling gauntlet, Auburn has been outrushed 814-244 in those three games.  No tears are being shed for the Hogs in the Atlanta Falcons locker room.

The Big 12 vs. SEC question doesn’t yet have an answer.  The SEC has more depth, but the teams at the top of the Big 12 may prove to be better.  Steve Spurrier points out that the Big 12 quarterbacks are better, while the SEC defenses are superior.

But bettors backing the top teams in the Big 12 are ecstatic right now.  Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are a combined 21-1 (95.4%) against the spread this season, with only Mizzou’s non-cover against Buffalo ruining what could have been a perfect record thus far for that conference’s top tier.

One metric I use in judging coaches is how they do in close games.  When Iowa was winning 31 games from 2002-2004, the Hawkeyes were 6-0 in games decided by three points or less.  Since then they’ve dropped all eight games decided by a field goal or less. So does Kirk Ferentz suddenly not know what he’s doing?  The Hawkeyes have had miserable luck, including two turnovers inside the ten-yard line in Saturday’s loss to Michigan State.  The first one was early in the game and was a fumble on a quarterback sneak on 2nd and 1.  I can’t say I’ve ever seen a quarterback sneak on 2nd and 1 from any place outside of the 1-yard line before.

The 11 highest ranked teams that played last weekend went 8-3 against the spread.  It will be interesting to see if that spurs on a flood of public money on highly ranked favorites this weekend.

We remain greater than 57% against the spread in college football over the past 5+ years.  If you’re interested in following a consistent winner, call 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Wake Forest hosts Clemson Thursday night, and these are a couple of teams that have serious problems. Clemson’s you probably know about, but Wake Forest’s issues may surprise you a little bit.

Clemson A Choke Factory:  With a victory over putrid NC State being their single win over a 1-A team so far this season, Clemson has some serious issues.   Tommy Bowden has lost a lot of games that he should have won over the years at Clemson, and that pattern has gotten worse and worse.

In fact, in their last 20 games against 1-A competition, Clemson has lost as the favorite in exactly half of those games.  The 20-game span started with their embarrassing Thursday night blowout loss at Virginia Tech at a time when many were touting them as the nation’s best team back in 2006.

To put in perspective exactly how bad it is to lose as a favorite 10 times in a 20 game span, it took Bowden seven full seasons as Clemson coach to lose as a favorite ten times, and 1999-2005 is not a time that he was building up a reputation as a big game seer.  The recent stretch of 10 upset losses in 20 games against 1-A teams may be unparalleled in college football history.   While they aren’t favored on Thursday night, that level of underachivement being exhibited by Clemson is tough to ignore.

Wake Forest Can’t Run:  Jim Grobe has made us some money over the years, and we think highly of his abilities, particularly as a program builder, strategist and motivator.  But he’s got a problem right now, and it’s a problem that historically has been a strength.

Wake’s running game is a mess.  Their six turnovers got all the press in their upset loss to Navy a week ago Saturday, but getting outrushed 292-43 didn’t help matters either.

When Grobe took over this program prior to the 2001 season, he built it around the running game.  In his first four seasons, the Demon Deacons ran the ball very effectively, averaging between 203 and 241 yards on yards per rush numbers that ranged from 4.0 to 4.3.

But starting in 2004, Wake’s rushing numbers have declined every year, going from 206 yards per game, to 198, to 150, to 143 last year, to a putrid 83 rushing yards per game so far this season.  The corresponding yards per rush attempt numbers have crashed as well, from 4.3 to 4.1 to 3.9 to 3.4 to a dreadful 2.4 so far this year.

This progression is alarming.  As Grobe has done a great job building this program, their talent level has increased, and the offense has become more balanced to properly use that talent.  But having a respectable passing game should make it easier to run the football, not more difficult.  Even if the raw rushing numbers were taking a dip due to an effective passing game, the yards per rush numbers shouldn’t be dropping.

The ACC hasn’t been much lately, so Grobe’s been able to mask this inability to carry the mail.  It’s odd to think that opponents are game planning to stop Riley Skinner’s passing attack and make Wake Forest run to beat them, when the reverse has been the book on Wake since Grobe arrived.

During their off week, Grobe had a lot of contact in practice, working the offensive line particularly hard.  It will be interesting to see if that pays off with results in Thursday night’s game against a Clemson team that has talent, but routinely comes up empty.

After another weekend where small NFL favorites won either luckily (Titans) or easily (Bears, Cards), favorites of 3 or less are now an astounding 20-3 (86.9%) against the spread in NFL football.

The Cowboys pointspread failure laying over two TD’s means that a double digit favorite has yet to cover in the NFL.  Dogs of 10 or more are now 7-0 against the spread.  We’re counting the Panthers as a 9.5-point favorite, since they didn’t become a 10-point favorite until about 50 minutes before game time, and the line remained 9.5 at some outposts.

Two questions…

Q: Can the Saints, a 3-point favorite, keep the money train rolling with the small favorites?

A: We’ll see.

Q: Does this 20-3 mark make any sense?

A. Not that I can see.

Cincinnati at Marshall:  The respect that people have for UC coach Brian Kelly is evident in this line, with both online sportsbooks and Las Vegas listing Cincy as a 3 point-favorite.  The first three QB’s on Kelly’s summertime depth chart are all unavailable.  Ben Mauk didn’t receive his sixth year of eligibility from the NCAA.  Dustan Grutza is injured.  Tony Pike was injured in last week’s game. Yet UC is still favored over Marshall despite their lack of a proven QB.  Zach Calleros and Chazz Anderson have combined for 1 for 4 in their college careers, with all of that being Calleros.  Weren’t there some bad movies in the 80’s with characters named Zach (a protagonist) and Chazz (the bad guy)?   Marshall is better than expected, and have won five straight at home. If you can project whether or not Kelly will have his QBs (and it is likely that both will play) ready, you’ll know what to do with this game.

BYU at Utah State: Doesn’t it seem like this game is played on Friday night every year due to the big annual Mormon conference that takes place on Saturday?  In fact, this is only the second time these two clubs have met since 2002.  That meeting saw BYU win 38-0 as 29-point home favorites in 2006.  BYU’s a lot better than USU, though the Aggies have improved numbers this year on offense.  But those numbers are largely the result of having put up 42 points and 580 yards against dreadful Idaho.  In their two previous games Utah State lost to Utah and Oregon by a combined 124-34.  This opportunity is a big deal for unheralded USU, and the last two games here between these teams were competitive. In 2002 BYU eked out a 35-34 win as a 17-point favorite. In 1999 the Cougars won 34-31 as a 17.5-point pick.  Those were a while ago, but are examples of how excited the folks in Logan can get for this game.  BYU is tons better but if they’re not paying attention fired-up Utah State could hang around for a while.

ESPN is reporting that Tony Mandarich took steroids when he was at Michigan State.   In other breaking news,  Reagan and Gorbachev failed to reach a major arms agreement at their summit in Iceland, while Kid ‘n Play have supplanted Cyndi Lauper at the top of the pop charts.

Big news this week is the Big 12’s placing four teams in the top 7 or 8, depending on what poll you followed.  And these clubs are keeping the alumni happy, as well, combining for a 10-2 record against the spread, with Oklahoma (3-0) and Texas (4-0) achieving pointspread perfection thus far.

The only thing that keeps the conference from having half of the Top 10 is Kansas’ overtime loss at South Florida.  But at least the Jayhawks were willing to take on a challenge, which you certainly can’t say about the rest of the league.  Let’s take a look at the highly ranked Big 12 entrants, and the schedules they’ve played.

#1 Oklahoma: After opening with Chattanooga, the Sooners haven’t had any paycheck games.  A blowout win at Washington would be impressive in a lot of years, but the Huskies are awful this season.  Easy home wins over underrated outfits Cincinnati and TCU are impressive.

Verdict:  Good work against a decent schedule.

#3 or #4 Missouri: Neutral site win over Illinois, who are down a bit this season.  Home walkovers against SE Missouri State, Nevada, and Buffalo are nothing to get worked up over.  Buffalo actually gave them a game, trailing only 21-17 late in the third quarter.

Verdict: Offense nearly was perfect for first three games, but level of competition is low.

#5 Texas:  4-0  over Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, then home again for Rice and Arkansas.  Four blowouts, but should be four blowouts.

Verdict: Have done nothing wrong against a weak schedule.  Taking on Arkansas showed some scheduling initiative, but horrid Hogs are struggling in Petrino’s first year.

#7 or #8 Texas Tech:  Wins over 1-AA Eastern Washington, at Nevada (allow 484 yards per game, but outgained Tech), and back home for SMU (winless against 1-A teams), and 1-AA Massachusetts.

Verdict:  Reporters tell you how real Mike Leach is, but his schedule is a complete fraud.

Overall Verdict:  With the exception of the ease by which Oklahoma has dispatched of some decent teams, none of these teams has done anything that any competent BCS conference club shouldn’t do in their sleep.  They haven’t done anything wrong, but these Big 12 teams have proven very little thus far.

On to some other subjects.  How did BYU sneak into the Top 10?  A 1-AA win and then wins over three programs (Washington, UCLA, Wyoming) fielding their worst teams in years gets you into the Top 10?

In a profession where a lot of guys seem to shoot to prove how miserable they can be, Pete Carroll not only seems constantly enthralled to be coaching his team, but is always exceptionally gracious in defeat, as well.

Of course Carroll’s program is probably as filthy as can be.  When Army visits Tulane this weekend they’ll play not in the Superdome, but on Reggie Bush Field at 26,000-seat Tad Gormley Stadium.  So you’ve got an NCAA football game being played at a facility that honors a guy who is currently doing everything he can to obstruct an NCAA illegal benefits investigation.

Of the 120 teams in Division 1-A football, the two worst defensive teams on a yards per play basis meet this weekend.  Would you believe that one is a 24-point road favorite over the other?  Nevada (allowing 7.5 yards per play against three 1-A opponents, including Missouri and Texas Tech) and Idaho (allowing 7.6) face off in Moscow, with the Vandals getting big, big points.   1-A opponents have outscored Idaho 184-62, and Idaho is 0-4 against the spread by a combined 94.5 point.  But shouldn’t you consider holding your nose and taking the big points with this ugly big home dog just on principle?

12 fully analyzed selections in this weekend’s college and NFL football card are waiting for you right now in my newsletter, the Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  You’ll also receive supplemental late-week reports from some sharp young handicappers and matchup statistics covering every game.  Best of all, it’s only $7 per week when you subscribe. Call 1-770-649-1078 to place your order. Thanks for reading this far.  Good luck and be careful.

For a while tonight you’ll be able to watch college football games on ESPN, CBS College Sports, and Versus.  Looks like lovely weather in Tampa, Birmingham, and Salt Lake City tonight, with no precipitation or meaningful wind expected in any of the three venues.  Let’s look at some tidbits from each game.  Remember that all stats are only from games against 1-A opponents.

Pitt at South Florida:  The hometanding Bulls are a 13.5 point favorite and the total is 51.  5-0 USF and 3-1 Pitt combine for a putrid 1-7 mark against the spread, with USF’s blowout of a beat up NC State team last week the only bright spot for bettors.   A double-digit line seems a bit high, but USF has won by 10 and 11 the past two years.  More importantly, Pitt can’t pass (5.8 yards per pass attempt) and USF does’t let you run, as 1-A opponents average only 2.1 yards per rush against them.  Summertime hype on Pitt seems misguided, as the Panthers had to mount a huge comeback to overcome pathetic Syracuse last Saturday and haven’t yet played a game that would live up to their preseason promise.

Memphis at UAB: Both of these teams started 0-3, then beat a 1-AA team, then turned in a good performance last weekend.  UM beat Arkansas State surprisingly easily, while UAB’s defense played well in a spread-covering 26-13 loss at South Carolina. Memphis was a 5-point favorite but money came in on the home dog, and the line is down to 3, with a total of 57.5.   Understand the move, as people don’t think a team allowing 406 yards per game on 6.4 yards per game should be a road favorite.  But does that mean you should play a team allowing 514 yards on 7.5 yards per play (UAB is ranked 118th out of 120 teams in both categories).  Blazers have little home field edge playing in front of friends and family at cavernous Legion Field, though sometimes that’s an atmosphere that can put an opponent to sleep.

Oregon State at Utah:  Early money came in on the Utes, who are now a 11-point pick in a game featuring a total of 53.  Obviously the marketplace expects an Oregon State letdown off the stunner over USC.  Beaver rushing game surprisingly notched 176 yards against USC, but Utah allows only 200 total yards per game on a miniscule 3.5 yards per play against 1-A competition.  Utes are #1 out of 120 teams in both of those categories.  QB Brian Johnson played hurt last now and is obviously playing with more verve this season, as the Utes average 8.5 yards per pass attempt.

Enjoy the games on Thursday night.

Favorites are 33-22 in the NFL (”pick ‘em” games and pushes excluded).  All the profit (actually, more than all the profit) is in small favorites, which are 16-3 against the spread so far this season, a stout 84.2%.   The only segment that finds underdogs profitable are double digit dogs, which are 6-0 against the spread.

Marion Barber carried the ball 8 times, while no other running back saw the rock in Dallas’ 26-24 loss to the Redskins.  First round draft pick Felix Jones averages 8.2 yards per carry but Jones didn’t touch the ball on Sunday.  The Cowboys had more runs called, but Tony Romo checked out of them to pass plays.  I understand the whole “take what the defense gives you” thing, but when you’ve got those backs and that offensive line…

Suppose you knew that the Cardinals would be held scoreless for the entire first half, and the Jets would score only in the second and fourth quarters.    How much would you have bet on under 90.5 in that game?

The Cardinals Kurt Warner’s career deteriorated in St. Louis when hand issues made it difficult for him to hold onto the ball, leading to interceptions and fumbles.  He had the same problems with the Giants.  So it was encouraging to see Warner have only a single interception and no fumbles in the first three starts of the season.  But that all changed on Sunday, as Warner’s three interceptions and four fumbes (three of them lost) keyed a 56-35 shellacking.  Warner’s incompetence came after a week where the Cards stayed on the east coast to limit their travel, something Warner was not happy about.   Hanging out in hotels was worse than traveling, and a mistake-laden start by the flat Cards led to a 34-0 halftime deficit.

During the Sunday Night telecast Al Michaels was criticizing Philly WR DeSean Jackson for his lack of discipline while lauding his ability.  John Madden replied, “But he’s a good kid.”   That’s news to folks from Berkeley, many of whom put the Cal Bears disappointing season last year squarely on the shoulders of “MeSean”.  The San Jose Mercury’s Jon Wilner calls Jackson “arguably the most selfish player to come through the Bay Area this decade”.   That’s saying something in an area with NBA, two baseball teams and two NFL teams.

Berkeley is a decidedly low-pressure environment, while Philly fans and media couldn’t be more intense. It says here that Jackson puts up some numbers, but things don’t end well for him in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Rams (0-4, Scott Linehan fired as coach) and Lions (0-3, Matt Millen fired as GM) have both failed to cover a poinstspread thus far.   Only two teams are undefeated against the number, and only one of them will be by Sunday night, as Tennessee and the Ravens face off in a game between arguably the two most physical teams in the league.

The two teams with their coach’s head on the chopping block combined to get outscored 43-3 in their fourth quarters Sunday. The Rams were outscored in the fourth quarter 18-0 by the Bills.  The Raiders similarly didn’t play for their coach’s job either, losing their the fourth quarter 25-3.

Tough beat of the weekend was the Raiders +8, as they were up 15-3 after three quarters.  Down by a field goal, disaster struck on a LaDainian Tomlinson 41-yard TD run with 1:04 left as the Chargers were running out the clock.  That made LT’s day look respectable, but before that needless burst he had been held to 65 yards on 19 carries, a solid performance by the Raiders D.

Another game where the stats don’t tell the full story was the Jaguars/Texans game.  The Jags ran 25 times for 139 yards in their OT win over the Texans.  But the 5.5 yards per rush stat for the game is a little bit phony, as it includes a 41 yard run for a TD off a fake punt.  Take that away and you’re looking at 24 carries for 98 yards, or 4 yards per rush.   Downgrade the alertness of the Texans special teams slightly, not their run defense, which was decent.

Keep an eye out tomorrow for some college notes, as well as new details on the Hilton Sportsbook robbery in Vegas.