Football handicapping is quite a puzzle early in the season.  You look at last season’s numbers, see how much of the cast of players and coaches that created those numbers are returning, and try to project what that combination will mean early in the season.

We’re fortunate to have been solving the puzzle successfully more often than not, as my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service is 12-2 (85.7%) against the pointspread in NFL and college combined, as documented by Ruth Glasgow’s The Sports Monitor.  If you’d like more information call 1-770-649-1078.

Most years by week 4 in college football we’re looking at a lot of statistical averages.  But it would be foolish to handicap using statistical averages in college football right now. 64 games have pitted 1-A teams have against outmanned 1-AA opponents rendering averages all but unusable.  51 of the 65 BCS conference teams play 1-AA teams this year, with most of those games having taken place. That renders statistical averages virtually useless.

Florida State is the #1 yardage defense in college football right now, allowing opponents a miniscule 170 yards per game.  But the Seminoles have played a pair of 1-AA opponents, Chattanooga and Western Carolina. Now Florida State may be an improved team, but there are a whole lot of 1-A teams that can shut down 1-AA teams.

In fact, when you look into FSU’s games, they aren’t even the #1 yardage defense that has played Chattanooga, as Oklahoma held the Mocs to 36 total yards, while Chattanooga gained 164 yards in Tallahassee.

It is also important to realize that there is a huge, huge difference in quality between these teams.  Assuming the Sagarin ratings are reasonably accurate, 1-AA teams that play 1-A teams have a 47+ point range in quality, from App State (68.16) to Texas Southern (20.59) .

Purdue 42-10 beat Northern Colorado thanks to some blocked punts, winning yardage in that game 402-338. San Diego State lost to Cal Poly-SLO 29-27, getting outgained 483-379.   Obviously Purdue had more to be pleased about didn’t they?   Maybe.  What about the fact that Cal Poly (60.24 Sagarin) is 3 TD’s better than Northern Colorado (40.28).

The handicapping puzzle is hard enough without trying to weigh those 1-AA stats generated in games where you have no idea how motivated either teams was.  A typical 1-A team has so much more talent that their 1-AA opponent that it renders their domination nearly meaningless.

Obviously you shouldn’t be using statistical averages in your handicapping.  So what’s the answer?

You don’t want to hear this, but the answer is to avoid the readily available statistical averages and dig deep into box scores from when the team you’re analyzing played decent competition.  Then when you see a strength you want to back or a weakness to exploit you go and read up on the team to see if there was something to explain away the strength or weakness.

Was a run-stuffing performance due to injuries on the opponent’s offensive line?   Was an ugly final score due to some unfortunate turnovers or special teams miscues that are likely to be corrected?  There’s a lot to learn, and then a lot of work trying to apply it to what will happen this coming weekend.

Statistical averages become more meaningful as the season progresses, and the 1-AA opponents are averaged out.  But you should tread extraordinarily lightly with statistical averages at this point and time in college football.

Good luck this weekend.  As was mentioned earlier, if you’re interested in finding out more about my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service call 1-770-649-1078.  Ask for me, Kevin O’Neill.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

Big East teams face Big 12 teams in made-for-TV matchups on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night.  The Big 12 appears to have a higher class of football this season, as Connecticut is the only Big East team that has covered a pointspread, while the Big 12 is rolling.

Really, if you believe in conference pointspread results being predictive, there’s only one way to go in games between a conference that is 1-13 against the spread vs. one that is 18-4-1 to the line.

Of course, if you believe that conference results are predictive, you took a 2-8 pointspread bath last Saturday with the Pac Ten, which previously was 7-2 to the number.

Remember the time when there was no such thing as Wednesday night football?  How about more recently, when at least they had the decency to wait until after the baseball season to play on Wednesdays?  Let’s move on to these prime time affairs.

Wednesday Night: Kansas State vs. Louisville

Beautiful night in Derby City, with clear skies, light winds, and a temperature dropping from the 70’s to the 60’s during the ballgame.  Kansas State is favored by 4, with a total of 56.

Louisville failed the only challenge that either one of these two teams has had, losing their opener to Kentucky 27-2.  Played on this field, that game was relatively evenly played except for a 5-1 turnover disadvantage against the Cards.  The ‘ville bounced back with a win over 1-AA Tennessee Tech (whoop-de-doo).   Hunter Cantwell was supposed to be the best backup QB in America the past couple of years, but he tossed 3 INT’s and averaged a piddling 3.5 yards per pass attempt vs. Kentucky.  At 6-8, rangy WR Josh Chichester is an inviting target.

Tough to tell what Kansas State brings to the table, as home wins over North Texas and 1-AA Montana State tell us next to nothing.   Obviously, a team that gave up over 49 points per game in a 4-game losing streak to conclude last season needs to shore up their D.  And Prince is relying on some junior college transfers to do just that.

Important game for the coaches involved, as neither Ron Prince nor Steve Kragthorpe are on the verge of winning any popularity contests in their hometowns, and there’s nothing like a prime time loss to trigger “this coach is in trouble” speculation these days.  Prince has won only twice on the road in his two years at KSU.  Louisville had a 20-game home winning streak snapped during Kragthrope’s initial campaign last year, and the Cards have lost three of their last six at home.

Thursday Night: West Virginia at Colorado

West Virginia is a 3-point favorite and the total is 56. Former Air Force assistant Bill Stewart spoke fondly this week of his time spent in Colorado.  An unpopular choice among some WVU boosters, Stewart probably looks back fondly on the anonymity he enjoyed as Fisher Deberry’s defensive line coach in the early ’90’s.

Out of the rubble of the East Carolina loss, look for Stewart to junk the “pass more” approach that led to Pat White completing five TD passes against Villanova. Expect Noel Devine’s workload to be doubled to 20 or so carries tonight, and for WVU to pick up the pace, as they’ve had only 108 offensive snaps in their two games.   It looks like a back to basics night for the Mountaineers.

Colorado is 2-0 after opening with a win over Colorado State and narrowly escaping Eastern Washington, coming back from 17 down to beat the solid 1-AA club. Colorado is allowing less than 2.5 yards per rush attempt, but Colorado State in it’s current state and EWU don’t exactly prepare you for West Virginia’s running game.  CU rarely sees a run-oriented spread attack and it is something that is difficult to replicate in practice, even with the extra days to prepare. Coach’s son QB Cody Hawkins operates the Buff no-huddle offense for his dad Dan and this is the first real test for a player expected to be improved.  Last year’s leading tackler for WVU, LB Reed Williams (both shoulders), will play for the first time this year.

Friday Night: Baylor at Connecticut

You can throw out the record book when these two ancient rivals meet.   Actually, there is no record book, as this is the first meeting between the schools.  Each won in blowout fashion last weekend, but the results must be discounted as they each beat up on poor teams made even more pathetic by their distractions.

Baylor crushed Washington State (rushing yardage 426-77) but Wazzou has injuries, veterans dissatisfied with the new coach, young players all over the field, and had to travel in early to play on Friday night to beat Hurricane Ike.   Connecticut smashed a disheartened Virginia team (rushing yardage 382-31) that played as though they were on strike due to the surprise suspension of their quarterback.

In the other games played by these two against 1-A opponents, they both struggled mightily offensively.  Baylor garnered only 250 yards or offense and had 5 turnovers in a home wipeout at the hands of Wake Forest.  UConn couldn’t score a TD in regulation in a dull 12-9 overtime win at Temple.

Due to the laydowns by their opponents last week it is tough to see what these two bring to the table.   But Baylor may be improved under new coach Art Briles, and the line move down from the the opener of 14 to 12 makes some sense.

If you’re a Michigan or Georgia Tech fan tearing your hair out over the fact that your schools are tied for the national lead in fumbles, you should relax.  The rash of turnovers for your clubs was to be expected, despite the adage that turnovers are difficult to project.

“You can’t predict turnovers” is an old, and largely accurate football forecasting maxim. It is especially true for the NFL, with the league’s relative balance.  It is less true in college, where faster, stronger, more athletic teams are likely to force turnovers from their outmanned opponents.

Interceptions are not completely random.  Better, more careful quarterbacks, enjoying superior protection, are going to throw fewer interceptions than inexperienced gunslingers making poor decisions behind shaky offensive lines.

Fumbles are pretty random in the NFL.  And become more random in college football over the course of the season. But in early season college football it isn’t always a surprise to see which teams are frequently fumbling. They’re the teams that have changed offensive systems.

Tying for the national lead in fumbles, Georgia Tech and Michigan have each put the ball on the turf 11 times, with Michigan losing 6 of the 11 fumbes, and Georgia Tech turning it over with 7 of their 11 drops.

The rash of turnovers is really no surprise. Both schools have brought in accomplished coaches who have radically changed the offensive system in use.   At Michigan they’ve gone to the spread option of Rich Rodriguez, while Georgia Tech has instituted the triple option of Paul Johnson.

The offenses demand tremendous precision from the quarterback and running backs, requiring that the quarterbacks make split-second reads before deciding to hand off, pitch, or run themselves. They take more than a little getting used to.

There are four other teams that have already lost six fumbles or more this season.  Army has the same coaches, but has gone to an option offense for the first time in a decade.  Auburn also has a steep learning curve, with spread guru Tony Franklin brought in as offensive coordinator.  Bowling Green and Kent State also have new offensive coordinators, though they were promoted from within.

There are five teams that have played three games without losing a fumble.  Virginia Tech, Central Michigan, UNLV, TCU, and Oklahoma all have something in common.  They have both the same head coach and the same offensive coordinator as last season.  The players were familiar with the offenses at each of those schools, and in combination with good luck, the result has been no lost fumbles.

Georgia Tech’s 20-17 loss at Virginia Tech would have been a different result had the Jackets not committed all three of the game’s turnovers.  And Michigan’s six turnovers keyed their 35-17 loss at Notre Dame.

This is not unlike what Johnson and Rodriguez experienced at their previous coaching stops.  In 2002, his first year at Navy, Johnson’s 2-10 team won the turnover battle by a combined 7-0 in their two wins over SMU and Navy, while their ten losses saw the Middies suffer a horrific 35-14 turnover disadvantage. But that difficult year built the foundation for five consecutive bowl appearances.

The learning curve was similar at West Virginia.  in 2001 Rodriguez took over a bowl team that returned 14 starters and blew up the offense, resulting in a 3-8 initial campaign.  The Mountaineers enjoyed a 13-2 turnover edge in their trio of wins (over two bad MAC teams and  an 80-7 demolition of Rutgers), but suffered a 30-11 turnover disadvantage in their eight losses.  Just like Navy, West Virginia has bowled every year since.

Until their players become used to their offenses (and players better suited to run those offenses are recruited to campus), look for Michigan and Georgia Tech to struggle.  But once they get their players to buy-in and acclimate to their offensive schemes, watch out for Michigan and Georgia Tech, led by these innovative, proven coaches.

Entering the weekend with a 7-2 (77%+) mark in our BCS Conference Pointspread Standings, disaster struck the Pac Ten on Saturday.  All ten clubs played non-conference games and they went 2-8 to the pointspread, with the overall pointspread ledger being -120 points. Frighteningly, that 120-point margin included routs by USC and Oregon State. Those two covered by a combined 45½ points.  Obviously that means there were some colossal losses, and of the eight losses, six were by 18½ or more to the number.  UCLA failed to cover by 51½ points, Arizona State by 26½, Cal by 22½, Washington State by 21½. Washington by 20, Arizona by 18½.   

It was a very tough week in the Pac Ten, and the “Little Brothers” in the Mountain West Conference are chirping about their 4-game sweep on Saturday.  BYU over UCLA, UNLV (at +24!) over Arizona State, New Mexico over Arizona, and  TCU over Stanford (Cardinal were nearly a two touchdown underdog) saw MWC’s 4-game domination reach exactly 100-points compared to pointspread expectations. 

The MWC/Pac Ten bowl matchups just got a little bit more interesting, and from a handicapping perspective, the usual emotional edge that that Mountain West clubs have will likely not exist this holiday season. 

We’ve been following the goings on of the Big East Conference rather closely, and after starting 0-10 against the spread in conference play, had high hopes for the four Big East teams in action, who were all hosting major conference opposition.

The weekend got off to a rough start, with 6-point underdog North Carolina annihilating Rutgers 44-12.  South Florida failed to cover by a half-point in their thrilling field goal win over Kansas, and in Saturday’s only daytime action involving the conference, Syracuse was outgained 560-159 (not a misprint) in their 55-13 home loss to Penn State.

But then came Saturday night, and we’re thrilled to announce that after an 0-13 pointspread run, the conference has now covered a number!!   11-point favorite UConn dominated Virginia 45-10 for the conference’s first cashed ticket. The strange situation of Virginia QB Pete Lalich, who was allowed to play against USC but kept from traveling to UConn due to a potential probation violation, and now apparently allowed to play again this week, helped distract a poor Virginia team and this dispirited Cavalier bunch didn’t show up.  The Huskies outrushed UVA 382-31, providing the Big East with their first cover of the year after an 0-13 start.  

Congratulations to the Big East Conference!

As we enter the third week of the college season, and week 2 of the NFL, our late selection service is doing well.  Last night’s win on North Carolina over Rutgers leaves us 6-1 (85.7%) on the season.   But seven games isn’t a lot of action.

Why haven’t we been busier?  Three reasons.

1. The scourge of 1-AA.  In the first two weeks of the college football season, there have been 55 games between 1-A teams and 1-AA opponents.  Therefore, there has not been wagering availability on those games.  Had all the 1-A teams been playing each other, we would have had another  13 or 14 games a week that we could have had a chance to play.

2. Unimaginative Scheduling:  There have been a ton of games with high lines.  With some notable exceptions (Clemson vs. Alabama, USC vs. Ohio State) few teams have been willing to challenge themselves.  I’ve never been one to get too excited about games with lines in the 20’s and 30’s.  A lot of times who covers is based on the play of 2nd and 3rd stringers, which is tough to handicap for.

3. Easing into the NFL:  As we’ve written about frequently over the years, the NFL is tough to get a handle on early.  I only had a single play last Sunday, will have at least a couple this week in the NFL, and then will resume normal programming.

So we’ll be involved with more than 3 games a week over the course of the season.  Circumstances have dictated conservatism in college ball, and taking it easy early is our approach in the NFL.  Pretty soon we’ll be involved in around 8 or 9 games per weekend for the most part, usually about 4 or 5 on Saturday and 3 or 4 on Sunday.

If you’re interested in taking advantage of our hard work and experience as things get cranking, call me at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details.

It’ll be in the low 80’s with wind not a factor as Kansas travels to Tampa to take on South Florida. The home team is a 3.5-point favorite, with a total of 48.5.

While both teams are 2-0, neither offense has shown the consistency they each exhibited last season during their breakout campaigns.  It seems to be widely thought that both teams will slip just a bit this season (in a Rutgers kind of way) after emerging so impressively in 2007.

Todd Reesing will be attacking USF’s inexperienced cornerbacks, who are both “playing on Sundays”.   The Bulls outstanding DE George Selvie is matched up on inexperienced left tackle Jeff Spikes, so expect the Jayhawks to double team Selvie most of the night.

USF’s offense always starts with Matt Grothe, both on the ground and through the air.  Grothe’s power running is tough for a defense to have mimicked for them in practice.

An interesting subplot to this game is the familiarity that coaches Mark Mangino and Jim Leavitt have with one another.   Together, they helped build the Kansas State program under Bill Snyder, meaning they are both products of the legendary Hayden Fry coaching tree.  Snyder is surely proud of both men, who like their mentor have built quality programs from scratch.

Should be one of the better Friday night college affairs we’ll see this season.  Enjoy the game.

What would the pointspread have been on this Sunday’s Patriots/Jets game if Tom Brady was healthy?  Let’s see if we can figure it out.

Each of the last three seasons the Patriots were favored by either 6 or 6.5 over the Jets in their games played at the Meadowlands.  But last season’s game was in the season opener, and the Patriots subsequently turned into the most dominant team in NFL history.  Meanwhile the Jets, a playoff team the previous year, tanked to a 4-12 record.

Late last season, the Patriots were favored by 20.5 at home against the New Yorkers, indicating a difference between the teams of about 17 points on a neutral field.

But you’ve got to bring the Patriots power rating back down to earth a little bit simply because of the offeseason, and you need to boost the Jets because of the acquisition of Brett Favre and other improvements.  So let’s take away 2 points from New England baseline, and add 3 points to the Jets rating.

So our new number is Patriots 12 points better than the Jets on a neutral field, dictating that the Patriots would have been about a 9-point favorite.  With inexperienced Matt Cassell starting for the Patriots this week, the Patriots are a 1.5-point underdog.

Our educated guesswork suggests that Tom Brady is worth 10.5 points in the pointspread.   With an unproven backup of his own (but unlike Cassell, at least Jim Sorgi was a proven college quarterback), an injury to Peyton Manning might be worth about a 9-point adjustment.

Clearly when it comes to the betting markets Tom Brady and Peyton Manning tower in importance over any other player in the NFL. Nobody else in the league would even be close.

The Las Vegas Hilton puts up future college football lines that they term “Games of the Year.”   That leads to some pretty strong differentials in the line from the preseason until the game actually occurs, but a couple of games this week are notable in how quickly the betting markets have adjusted to how unimpressive Ohio State and Notre Dame have been thus far.

USC was favored by 4.5 over Ohio State two weeks ago at the Hilton.  Now with Beanie Wells uncertain status, Ohio State’s clunker last week against Ohio University, and a massive one-way public opinion that the Trojans are poised for a blowout, that line is 11.5 and even higher.

Notre Dame was favored by -7 over Michigan in the early wagering at the Hilton.  Even though Michigan is now 1-1, and has failed to cover either of their first two games, Michigan is now a 2-point favorite.  Just think how big a difference there would have been if Michigan had impressed up to this point.

Bettors are sour on Notre Dame due to the Irish’s poor performance in their win over San Diego State.   1-AA Cal Poly the week before gained 6.7 yards per play (and over 5.0 yards per rush) in their 29-27 win over the Aztecs.   In comparison, the box score of the 21-13 Irish victory over San Diego State last Saturday was pretty unimpressive, as Notre Dame could manage only 5.0 yards per play and 3.1 yards per rush against a banged up Aztec defense.

Forward-thinking Nevadans can get a real edge with these  “Games of the Year”, which are still posted on a weekly basis every Monday at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Thursday night sees North Carolina visiting New Brunswick, NJ (meaningless fact alert) for the first time since 1919 to take on Rutgers.  Both programs are thought to be up ‘n comers under well regarded coaches but both struggled in their first ballgame.  Both the ACC and Big East have been abominable thus far in non-conference play (3-17-1 against the spread combined) but someone has to win this one.  What can we expect from them tonight?

Let’s make the case for each team.

The Case For Rutgers:  North Carolina played poorly in a 35-27 win over McNeese State in their opener.  McNeese State has a very solid 1-AA program (11-1 last year), but the talent level between 1-A and 1-AA should always dictate a larger margin than a single score.

Carolina’s top three running backs are sophomores and RB’s combined for only 69 yards on their 22 carries against their 1-AA opponent.  McNeese State outgained UNC slightly and had more first downs by a 22-14 margin.

While Rutgers offense played poorly in their 24-7 home loss to Fresno State, with the running game struggling to get anything going,  the defense was stout enough. The Scarlet Knights trailed only 10-7 midway through the 4th quarter.  They did wear down late, with that lack of offensive support being a contributing factor.  If UNC struggles with the running game the veteran Rutgers defensive backfield could have a field day, as UNC QB TJ Yates is mistake prone (18 interceptions last year).

North Carolina is a poor traveling team and has not won a game outside of the state of North Carolina since 2002 (they have wins at Duke, at NC State, and at Wake Forest over that time).  The Tar Heels lost by matching 37-10 scores at South Florida and at Wake Forest last season. Rutgers is a tough place to play and the Scarlet Knights need a win badly.

The Case for North Carolina:  McNeese State didn’t see UNC’s full playbook, and Butch Davis will pull out all the stops for this one. While UNC had problems against McNeese State, they had explosive big plays, and Brandon Tate had an 82-yard punt return for a TD, a 57-yard TD reception, and ran three times for 106 yards.  He’s a weapon, and they have multiple weapons at receiver (as does Rutgers).

While they have not played well on the road over the years, it hardly seems fair to blame John Bunting’s failures on second year coach Butch Davis.  Last year the Tar Heels lost only 2 of their 12 games by more than 7 points, and have done a good job hanging around. Despite the poor performance in their McNeese State win, the Tar Heels are a team poised for solid improvement.  With 18 returning starters back in the fold, this is a team ready to move forward.