In their fourth game of the season, the team that was 30th in offense and 31st and defense last season is a road favorite of more than a TD today.  That’s how bad the situation is in St. Louis.

I’d love to take the points with the Rams over the Bills today, as the value is there.   With Scott Linehan’s job on the line today one would hope that the players would rise up and make a stand. But with Stephen Jackson openly calling Marc Bulger’s benching “the wrong decision”, who knows if the Rams will show up to play.

Will be interesting to see if it is “Muntiny in the Jones Dome” or if the Rams instead exhibit professionalism and give an honest effort today.

The following preview is from my newsletter, The Maximum Profit Football Preview.  To subscribe, call 770-649-1078.Following a terrific season, but thinking he’s peaked with what he can accomplish with the program, the coach leaves his established home for a better paying job.  An overmatched assistant takes over as head man, and the losses mount.  Sure, this discussion could be about West Virginia, but it is about Hawaii, wiped out by their only two 1-A opponents thus far. Getting blasted at Florida is understandable.  Losing 45-7 at Oregon State (a team that replaced their entire front 7 on defense) on yardage of 485-211?  Not so much.  Even the 1-AA home game in between, a 35-17 win over Weber State, was blasé.  You may have read that Tyler Graunke, the UH quarterback, is supposed to be back in the lineup, but against the vulnerable defense of Oregon State he threw 27 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with two interceptions.  Nothing to be scared about.  This team lost not only head coach June Jones, but QB Colt Brennan and a lot of other good players as well, as they returned only 9 starters.   They’re a shadow of what they were under Jones and the fan support is suffering, as there was a lot of controversy over Jones’ departure and the culpability of the university administration and the athletic department leadership in not keeping him around. And in this game they’re taking on a team that’s better than many realize.   San Jose State’s Dick Tomey has done a fine job at a school that was considering dropping the sport within the past decade. In a loss to Stanford on Saturday night, Cal transfer Kyle Reed completed 23 of 26 passes, but protection was a major issue, as the Spartans allowed him to be sacked six times in the second half.  There were some instances where he should have thrown the ball away.  But San Jose State can compete against a team below the BCS level of talent (outrushed San Diego State 293-6).  And their 23-10 loss to Stanford was 16-10 and the Spartans had the ball at midfield with a couple of minutes left.   Stanford made the strange decision (first and goal from the 9 with less than a minute left and no timeouts for SJSU) to punch in a TD to make the margin look more significant at 23-10.  Stanford isn’t that bad, and at this point a significantly better team than this depleted Hawaii club, something that is obvious when you compare their results against Oregon State.  Stanford outplayed Oregon State on the line of scrimmage, with a 210-86 rushing edge.  That same OSU team outrushed this Hawaii team 217-57. Of course, those stats were all from games played on the mainland, and UH has exhibited a big home field edge over the years.  But even with better talent they are only 2-4 against the spread in thier last six outings as a home favorite.  Hawaii had a week off, but this coaching matchup of Tomey against Greg McMakin is men vs. boys. There will definitely be support for Hawii in the betting markets by those who are used to playing Hawaii at home and have trouble realizing that these two teams are completely different from the ones that resulted in a 42-35 road win at Spartan Stadium last season.  Take the points and look for the outright upset. San Jose State by 4.

If you’ve been to the Hilton Superbook in Las Vegas you know how convenient that back parking lot entrance is.  A team of two robbers and a getaway driver took advantage of the accessibility with a 6:15AM Friday morning robbery.  Wearing motorcycle helmets, and brandishing handguns, two of the thieves went up to the counter and had hopped in the waiting getaway vehicle less than a minute later with a reported $570,000.

I wouldn’t think that a sports book would have that kind of cash handy before they even opened in the morning.  Nor would I think that someone behind the counter could produce that kind of cash so quickly, even during peak hours. Clearly this brilliantly executed heist was perpetrated by people with intimate knowledge of the operations of the sports book.

Low 70’s, light breezes, and only a slight chance of a shower in Derby City tonight as the Louisville Cardinals host Connecticut.  Both teams are playing on a weeknight for the second straight week.

Louisville is favored by 3.5 (the total is 51) off a strong performance against Kansas State last week, where they outgained the Wildcats 577-343.  Following a 53-yard rushing performance in a dreadful home loss to Kentucky (their only other 1-A opponent), the Cards exploded for 303 yards on the ground against KSU.  While their offensive running game has been uneven, the defense held UK and KSU to a combined 93 rushing yards on 2.1 yards per carry.

Tough to tell if the ‘ville is ready to be consistent and offer another good performance, as they were 4-7 in their previous 11 games against 1-A opponents before the Kansas State game.   Maybe now that Steve Kragthorpe swept out a lot of bad guys left behind by Bobby Petrino, things are on the upswing for the Cardinals.  Or maybe it simply says more about Kansas State’s readiness last Wednesday night.

Connecticut was outgained by a Baylor 377-350, but managed to win the game 31-28.  But that’s nothing new, as the Huskies were outgained in four of their nine victories last year, and were outgained on the season despite that nifty 9-4 record.

One of those yardage loss/scoreboard win games came against these same Cardinals thanks to college football’s only fair catch punt return for a TD last season. That may provide a little motivation here, but it isn’t like UConn is such a monster program that they don’t get fired up every time they’re on TV themselves.

Is Louisville’s favoritism an overreaction to one game, especially considering the fact that UConn is 4-0 after a 9-4 season last year?  Maybe, but Randy Edsall’s team has a definite pointspread personality. Since the start of the 2005 season, UConn is 14-5 against the line at home, but the Huskies are only 4-11 to the pointspread on the road.

Enjoy the game tonight. Be sure to check out our news and notes on this weekend’s college and NFL football below.

Big pointspreads to deal with in Thursday night football.  USC is favored by 25.5 with the over/under line at 52 as they head north to take on Oregon State in Pac Ten play.  18-point favorite Tulane hosts SMU in Conference USA with a total of 49.

USC at Oregon State: Possible rain earlier in the day at Oregon State, but it will be OK by game time, and the temperature will fall from the 60’s into the 50’s during this one. Corvallis has been a difficult site for USC in recent years.  You probably remember Oregon State’s 33-31 upset of USC here two years ago as a 10.5 point underdog.  OSU led 33-10 at one point and the Trojans scored a TD with 7 seconds left but missed the two-point conversion that would have sent it into OT.  The previous game here was a barnburner as well, with 18-point favorite Southern Cal falling behind 13-0, scoring 28 straight points, then holding on for a 28-20 win on a foggy night in 2004.

Last season Oregon State lost 24-3 in LA in a game lacking offense, with the Trojan yardage edge being 287-176.  You know all about USC’s offensive pop and their incredible defense, so let’s take a look at Oregon State.

Lyle Moevao is a tough kid, but not a top notch QB.  He has 6 TD’s and 4 INT’s thus far on the season, but played poorly in Oregon State’s 45-14 no-show at Penn State. A wild card for OSU is Sammy Stroughter, who had 8 catches for 127 yards and a 70-yard TD return here two years ago in the Beaver upset win.  Stroughter missed most of last season with depression and while he has 3 TD’s on 21 catches this year, he has not been the big play threat that he was, averaging just over 12 yards per catch.

Oregon State doesn’t have a strong running attack. The leading rusher is a true freshman out of Houston named Jacquizz Rogers, averaging 88 yards per game.   I have to admit that Jacquizz was not a name that my wife and I considered for any of our children.

25.5 seems like a big number considering the history at this site.  But Oregon State has a mediocre defense at this time, with all of their front seven being new starters.  It’s tough to see anyone getting a lot of offensive production against the Trojans with all the NFL prospects making big plays in their backfield.  USC has more than seven days of rest between every game until October 11th when they take on Oregon. With only two games under their belt and having not played since crushing Ohio State, they should be fresh and ready to go here.

SMU at Tulane: Tulane misses Matt Forte, currently running well for the Chicago Bears.  They’re averaging only 18 points per game, but their three games have included contests against East Carolina and Alabama, both of whom they played tough.  Tulane shockingly outgained a flat, post-Clemson Alabama team 318-172 but lost 20-6 in that Week 2 affair in Tuscaloosa. A week later it took a late ECU drive to beat Tulane.  A win over Louisiana-Monroe followed. 1-2 Tulane has good balance, with 121 passes and 114 runs on the season.

Balance is something SMU doesn’t have.  June Jones lives to throw, throw, throw, and the Mustangs average only 31 yards per game rushing, last in Division 1-A. Taking on a run ‘n shoot team is “like going to Disneyland for a defensive back” according to Tulane cornerback Charles Harris, who is pleased not to have to deal with any of that pesky run support.

New SMU coach Jones returns to the Super Dome, site of his Sugar Bowl beatdown as coach of Hawaii last January.  The atmosphere will be different tonight, with less than 20,000 in attendance.

18 points seems like a lot to lay for a Tulane team that only averages that many, but remember the tough schedule that Tulane has played.   1-3 SMU has only beaten 1-AA Texas State (and were outgained in that one).  Defensively, the Mustangs are allowing 46 points and 531 yards per game. Losses have been to Rice by 29, at Texas Tech by 36, and to TCU by 41.  Tulane is less explosive than those three teams, but until SMU can find a quarterback for Jones’ offense the Mustangs will be just plain bad.

Rutgers had high hopes entering the season, and that’s why we consider them to be the most disappointing team in college football.   But Rutgers failing to cover their three games by a combined 65.5 points is a shining achievement compared to the Washington State Cougars.

Under new coach Paul Wulff, the offense and defense have been blown up, practices have gotten more demanding, and younger players are getting plenty of playing time over established veterans.  As a result, Wulff is losing some of his upperclassmen, and the Cougars have failed to cover their three games by a combined 90 points.  Wazzou did notch a win over 1-AA whipping boy Portland State on Saturday.   Believe it or not, we still think Wulff is the right man for the job.  He’s an alumnus who had plenty of success at Eastern Washington.  He’s just dealing with a lot of youth, injuries in bunches, and he has a culture to change.

Nobody else is close to WSU’s -90 aggregate score against the pointspread, but there are 13 teams that are 0-3 to the number, including four in the Big East (Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, and South Florida).   Not a lot of people expected Ohio State to be 0-3 to the number and -45 points below marketplace expectation, that’s for sure.

How bad is Virginia?  Bad enough that Duke is an ACC favorite for the first time in 41 conference games.  The Blue Devils were last the wagering choice in conference play when they were a 3-point pick over Carolina to close the 2002 season.  They lost that one by 2.

The Blue Devils are favored by more than a field goal for the first time in 74 conference games.  In November of 1998 they were a 9-point favorite over Maryland and lost by 17.  How long ago was that?  The coaching matchup was Fred Goldsmith losing to Ron Vanderlinden.

There needs to be a vehicle to somehow bet against both teams in a game.  Purdue visits Notre Dame this weekend.  The homestanding Irish are ranked 112th in rushing offense and 108th in total offense.  Purdue outgained a 1-AA team that was 1-10 last year by only 64 yards, were outgained by 95 yards in their OT loss to an Oregon team that was subsequently walloped by Boise State (see below), and then were outgained by 96 yards by Central Michigan.  Alas, when go-against meets go-against there’s not a whole lot you can do.

Don’t be fooled by the 37-32 final score, Boise dominated Oregon at Autzen Stadium.   It was 37-13 after three quarters before a garbage time 19-0 run on yardage of 238-66 for the Ducks.  Oregon entered the season with no experience at quarterback and are now down to a true freshman third stringer.

Tough break for North Carolina, losing emerging QB TJ Yates for 6 weeks or more.  The Tar Heels were controlling Virgina Tech, holding the Hokies to 247 total yards but found a way to lose thanks to 4 turnovers. Backup QB Mike Paulus was particularly not up to snuff, throwing two INT’s in 8 attempts.  Paulus is competing with Cam Sexton for the starting job.   Paulus, brother of Duke hoopster Greg, was recruited out of Syracuse, NY by both USC and Notre Dame, so he is not without potential.

If you’re betting Stanford games, the results have been little more than late game happenstance.  TCU punched in a 10-yard TD run on 4th and 7 with 1:05 left to cover the two-TD spread in a 31-14 home win against the Cardinal two weeks back.

Last Saturday Stanford handed off to score on 2nd and goal with 9 seconds left and a 6-point lead against San Jose State.   That covered the 7-point spread, so the alumni are happy, and Jim Harbaugh muttered something about developing attitude.  But isn’t Harbaugh familiar with the 1999 Baylor loss to UNLV? 

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

In the midst of the carnage he’s wrought as Syracuse coach, Greg Robinson has gotten one thing right.  Last year he caused a minor interstate incident when he called Rutgers a “one year wonder.”  With Rutgers now 10-10 since their 2006 comeback Thursday night win over Louisville, the overmatched coach of the Orangemen appears to have been correct.

After a distressing loss to a Navy team that had lost by double digits to both Ball State and Duke, 0-3 Rutgers is probably the most disappointing team in college football, with all three losses outright upsets as a clear favorite.   The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover the pointspread in those games by 65.5 points.

Rutgers has manhandled Navy on the line of scrimmage in recent years and did so again in the first half at Navy.  But threatening to take a 21-6 lead at the half, a fumble on the goal line to conclude a 75-yard drive kept it 14-6.  Navy went on to outgain RU in the second half 242-119 and earn the win.  The second half surge by Navy was curious, because better BCS teams often succeed against the triple option attack in the second half, as their assignments become clear to them and their superior athleticism takes over.

Whether it is poor conditioning or a lack of second half adjustments, Rutgers has now been outscored in the by Fresno State, North Carolina, and Navy by a combined 69-20 in their three second halves this season.

Rutgers is now 4-9 against the pointspread since their fans chanted “F#%& you, Navy!!” at our future servicemen last year.

With Greg Schiano looking to unleash the hounds on somebody, RU hosts Morgan State on Saturday.  Morgan State’s 1-AA conference-mate Norfolk State didn’t appreciate Schiano calling three timeouts late in the second quarter last year in an effort to add on to a 45-0 lead.   It could get ugly early for the visiting Bears.

Let’s take a look at some things going on in the NFL.

The hapless Rams have been outgained by 763 yards in their first three games.   If they kept that up (which they won’t, of course), they’d be outgained by 2.31 miles over the course of the season.  Only the Browns being 10 yards worse per game offensively (194 yards per contest) keeps the Rams from being last in both total offense and total defense.

Not a lot of fluke results in pro football so far this year. 47 NFL games have been played, and 42 of them have been won by the team with more total yards.   Marc Lawrence mentioned that stat to me on his radio show this week.   Victor King pointed out that although NFL favorites are 27-18-2 this far on the season, double digit dogs are 5-0, so single digit favorites are a stout 27-13-2.  Considering that the bulk of my NFL plays are single digit dogs, I’m certainly pleased to be 5-1 in the NFL.  Obviously Marc and Victor do a lot of good statistical research on that program, which I appear on for the first 20 minutes or so each week.

Though it’s early, 9-7 looks good for a wild card berth in the AFC, but likely won’t cut it in the NFC.  Why? 10 of the 16 multiple win teams in the NFL reside in the NFL, while 4 of the 6 winless teams play in the AFC.

Faced with those numbers, it won’t surprise you to learn that the NFC is 7-3 against the spread vs. the AFC, with five of those seven covers by double digits against the spread.

San Diego got some cheap points early in their 48-29 Monday night win over the Jets and only won yardage 357-308.  But don’t be fooled into thinking that the game was close.  When the Chargers scored on their opening drive of the second half to take a 38-14 lead they were outgaining the Jets 245-63.  The rest of the game meant nothing.

No more hoping that my wife asks me to run errands during Georgia games so I have an excuse to listen to the radio.   Larry Munson has retired.

Munson, who has been Georgia’s play-by-play man since before I was born, turns 86 this Sunday, and his rapidly declining health led him to just call home games since the start of last season.

With every meaningful game on TV these days, we forget what an important connection radio play-by-play announcers had with their team’s fans not all that long ago.  Munson is one of the last of a breed, a spectacular homer who lived and died with the Bulldogs.  Just the sound of his voice made you think “Georgia football”.

I was fortunate to be fourth-row center court for the Celtics clincher over the Lakers this past June (thanks again, Dan), and in the concluding moments of the blowout a montage of Johnny Most clips were played over the PA system while on the video board they showed the microphone that memorializes him at the new Boston Garden.  The place went bonkers.

Larry Munson has the same kind of connection with Georgia fans. To say that he’ll be missed around here is a gargantuan understatement.  Some of his best calls set to video are here.

• “Scott Woerner Woerner Woerner Woerner!!!”
• “We just stepped on their face with a hobnail boot and broke their nose!  We just crushed their face!”
• “Run, Lindsay….Lindsay Scott! Lindsay Scott! Lindsay Scott!….Man, is there gonna be some property destroyed tonight.”
• “He’s running over people!….Oh, you Herschel Walker!…My God, a freshman!!”
• “Hunker down, you guys!…I know I’m asking a lot, but just hunker it down one more time!”

This one is a little more complete, though with still photos and not video.  If you like college football, waste invest ten minutes in these.  You won’t be sorry.

Thanks for the memories, Larry.  You’ll be missed.

My colleague Dave Fobare, a Michigander, wrote this as a report for subscribers to my newsletter, The Max.  Here is Dave’s local perspective on the Lions mess, and coach Rod Marinelli’s inability to properly judge his own talent:

Head man Rod Marinelli seems to get a free pass when discussing the travails of the Detroit Lions. Matt Millen, the worst NFL general manager in the history of the league comes in for the lion’s(sorry) share of the blame. As well he should. But Marinelli has made mistakes too. His chief problem seems to be an inability to accurately gauge his own talent.

The 2007 Lions’ secondary was probably the worst in the NFL, and over the offseason M&M moved heaven and earth to shore it up. Three ex-Bucs familiar with the Tampa 2 and Marinelli’s way were brought in. Talented malcontent DT Shaun Rogers was shipped off to Cleveland for CB Leigh Bodden. The DBs looked better in training camp, but as the season approached Marinelli still had not named Bodden a starter. The kid is in his physical prime, and to all observers is a big improvement on CB Travis Fisher, who is really just a nickel back. Sure enough Fisher got the start three weeks ago in Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball on their first two snaps, but on the third rookie QB Matt Ryan went up top and burned Fisher deep for an easy 62 yard scoring strike. Fisher didn’t come close to laying so much as a hand on the receiver. Later in the game Fisher was pulled for Bodden. The Lions secondary was singed again last week by Aaron Rodgers, but not at the the expense of Bodden.

First round draft choice RT Gosder Cherilus couldn’t manage to beat out veteran George Foster during camp. Foster gave up a sack against Atlanta on a complete whiff that was lowlight reel worthy. Two weeks ago Foster was pulled in the second quarter after giving Packer’s DE Aaron Kampman his 2nd sack of the day and his sixth sack in his last 3 games against Detroit. Cherilus stuffed Kampman the rest of the afternoon. Kampman is maybe the best pass rushing DE in the league right now, and after the Pack ran out to a 21-0 fist half lead last week the Lions were forced to throw on nearly every down. And still Cherilus stuffed Kampman. Cherilus did start against the 49′ers, but hadn’t been officially named the starter even two hours before game time.

This spring’s draft also saw an attempt to improve the MLB spot. Current starter Paris Lenon, a castoff from Green Bay, is almost certainly the worst starting MLB in the NFL, and maybe one of the worst 5 or 10 starting players in the league. So Millen drafted Jordan Dizon out of Colorado. Scouts loved Dizon’s decision making but were skeptical of his size. But Marinelli’s defense in Tampa often sacrificed size for speed and smarts with good success. Early in camp Dizon looked good - fast with good natural instincts. And most importantly a much better tackler than Lenon.

But as camp progressed and Marinelli installed more of the Tampa 2 scheme Dizon began to fall behind. Marinelli expected as much and said so frequently. In the Tampa 2 the MLB has a lot of play calling responsibility that can wear on a youngster acclimating to the NFL. So Lenon remained a starter to start the season.

Well, Lenon was a disaster against the Falcons in the opener. The linemen in front of him didn’t help, but Lenon missed plenty of opportunities. Late in the game Lenon dinged his knee and had to come out of the game. Dizon came in for the last 14 Atlanta snaps. Dizon made 5 tackles and Marinelli admitted that the rookie hadn’t made a single play calling mistake. Rod promised that Dizon would be in the mix for Green Bay. Yet the Packers came and went and Dizon didn’t play a single down. The excuse? The Green Bay offense was far too complex; Dizon would have been lost out there. That is a crock. At least from the standpoint of the ground game. Green Bay runs EXACTLY the same zone blocking scheme. Their running plays look EXACTLY like Detroit’s.

The problem at MLB really goes back further. In Marinelli’s first year back in 2006 he saw just how bad Lenon was. Yet he seemed to blame much of the defense’s poor play on coordinator Donnie Henderson. Henderson was hired because Tampa wouldn’t let coach Joe Barry out of his contract. Henderson was not a Tampa 2 guy, and clashed all year with Marinelli. The thinking was Detroit’s D would improve with the entire staff on the same page in 2007 when Barry could be hired as the DC. So Millen passed on drafting a MLB in 2007. That was too bad, because that draft was loaded with good MLB prospects. The 2008 draft was thin at this spot. Its tough to tease out just who was more responsible for this mistake - Marinelli or Millen. But the fact is Marinelli has misjudged his own talent repeatedly and seems bent on doing it some more in the face of overwhelming evidence. If this season is the last for the Matt Millen regime - and one can only hope - then HC Rod Marinelli will deserve a goodly share of the blame.