Smart people had differing opinions on what the new college football clock rules would do to scoring.  While eight is hardly a representative sample, it is worth noting that Thursday and Friday games went over the total at a 6-2 clip.  The Buffalo/UTEP game was middled by the one or two people who were waiting all summer to bet the under, but went over the closing number for everyone else.

Again, eight isn’t much of a sample size.  But it is worth keeping an eye on.  The opinion here is that some teams are looking to play really fast, and will be helped by the new 40-second clock, which added plays to NFL games when instituted.  Other coaches will look to shorten the game by milking the clock, which now runs after out of bounds plays.  Rather than seeing across the board higher scoring or lower scoring, we’ll see certain teams exhibit patterns depending on their preferred style of play.

Offensively talented teams with depth will look to attack.  Outmanned teams hoping to keep it close will slow things down.

College football is becoming more like college basketball, in that coaches, empowered by the rules changes, are putting more focus on controlling the pace of games.

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Each week our team of handicappers scours the college and NFL football landscape to bring you around a dozen selections backed with full writeups on the weekend’s football card.  These games are emailed to you during Monday Night Football, enabling you to get a head start on the next week’s college and pro football card.

This is the 9th year for The Maximum Profit Football Weekly (”The Max”) and in recent years I’ve added handicappers Dave Fobare, Matty Baiungo, and Erik Scheponik as valued contributors to the publication.

This week’s Max was emailed to subscribers last Saturday, and your first copy is ready and waiting for you.  In it you’ll learn of….

• a game in which 69-39 ATS dominance system favors a team that also has nearly a full TD in line value.
• a favorite whose superiority is hidden as a result of a misleading game against this same opponent last year.  That opponent has suffered some serious personnel losses, is changing up their offense, and is ripe to get roasted.
• a cheap shot injury from last season providing one opponent with legitimate motivation today.
• which game should be wipeout time for a favorite ready to pound an opponent that has had a miserable offseason.
• the Sun Belt Conference team that is a live underdog against an overrated team in major transition mode.
• a team led by a talented quarterback who “took one for the team” by playing hurt last year.  He’s ready to explode against an opponent with offensive line personnel that does not fit their new system.
• a rivalry game where the pointspread doesn’t match either the past history or the returning personnel of these two programs.

The Max sells for $199 but is available at the preseason discount rate of $149. We treat our customers (and their privacy) with respect, and we do not engage in any form of telemarketing, nor do we sell our trade your name and contact information.

Subscribe today and the Max will be emailed to you while you’re on the phone with us.  Ask about a special bonus for new subscribers when you call 1-770-649-1078.

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People love to see how the lines move when they first come out.  Those who are ready to bet at the opener are usually pretty informed guys who understand the marketplace.  Certain sports books are willing to take their action, in essence paying for the information of who these sharps like.  The books will then use this knowledge as part of their recipe to determine the “right side” as they try to shade their lines to attract action on from other bettors.   So it makes sense to follow those early moves, right?

In theory, yes.  But here’s the problem.  Some of the moves are false ones.  In recent years a few large bettors have gotten more sophisticated in how they attack the market, and will play a game in the opposite direction of what they like in an effort to get a better number.   A respected group of bettors can play a game at just a few influential sports books at -6 can create a line move in the entire marketplace to -7.  They then bet the underdog much heavier at +7,  getting the number they originally desired via this market manipulation.

There’s an additional reason to take early season line moves with a grain of salt. Opening week in college football (this week) and the NFL (next week) provides a unique circumstance in that a few books have had lines up on these games for a month, while others just post lines six days in advance.  So the moves early in opening week are not on fresh numbers, but on numbers that have been hammered out in the marketplace throughout the month of August.

Trying to determine what sides are the “right sides” based on line moves can be a wise use of a handicapper’s time, but make sure you are aware of the potential of false moves and the unique circumstance of the month-long availability of Week 1 lines.

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When an item in the company’s local paper, the Vancouver Sun, leads with “The Bodog online gambling empire continues to crumble,” it is certainly a good time to keep your balances low and avoid further deposits.

This time it is a marketing support company critical to Bodog’s operations laying off 200 staff members.   Last month it was a Forbes report that $24 million had been confiscated from Bodog controlled American accounts by U.S. government.

I’m told that the withdrawal process from Bodog is currently taking some people over a month.  While much of the online wagering world continues to prosper out of the limelight, the spotlight that marketer extraordinaire Calvin Ayre drew to the company over the past few years continues to bring Bodog attention that they don’t desire today.

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Your schedule could fool you this weekend, as the bottom team is not always the home team. There are six games this weekend where bottom team in the schedule listing is actually playing at a neutral site. All six games are being played at NFL venues.

Three sites are home-neutral, though one of those favors the “road” team. Three are purely neutral. It is important to assess what, if any, home field edge is available in each contest, based on proximity, crowd, and playing surface advantages.

Boston College vs. Kent State (Cleveland Browns Stadium): Pair of Field Turf teams playing on grass today. Nearby Kent State has a modest following, averaging less than 10,000 fans per game at home last season. Boston College brought fewer than 4,000 to the ACC Championship Game, so it should be far less here. Slightest of home field edges to KSU.

Oklahoma State vs. Washington State (Qwest Field, Seattle): Artificial surface is what both clubs also play on at home. Wazzou would be better off on their home field across the state, as inhospitable Pullman is notoriously tough to get to. But the Cougars will have the crowd advantage. Modest home field edge to WSU.

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte): Grass surface is just like home for both clubs. Home state ECU’s Greenville campus is 250 miles from here, while Blacksburg is only 160 miles away. With Tech’s far greater following and a proximity edge, a pro-Hokie crowd is a given.

Illinois vs. Missouri (Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis). Neutral site game on the border of these two states. Artificial surface familiar to both clubs. More Mizzou fans expected than Illini backers, but close enough to 50/50 that assigning a home field advantage to the Tigers would be a mistake. Making this “Border War” game an annual event would be ideal for fans, less so for two programs who might prefer easy early season wins.

Alabama vs. Clemson (Georgia Dome, Atlanta): Field Turf ballgame between two games who play on grass at home. Neutral site games in this building (SEC Championship, Peach Bowl), are electric affairs. 50/50 crowd split. Nutso fan bases. Terrific atmosphere.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (Invesco Field, Denver): Surface reversal from previous years, as Colorado State now plays at home on Field Turf, Colorado now plays on grass, which is the surface today. Fierce in-state rivalry has led to riot squads utilizing tear gas to control CSU revelers in the past. No edge for either club. Not sure how it will effect the game if Obama is still levitating above the stadium following his sure-to-be mystical Thursday appearance.

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It’s tough to be too excited about the opening of the college football season when so many of the games are so unattractive. Five of the top eight teams in the AP poll are playing 1-AA opponents this week, with Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, and West Virginia all facing off against lower division foes.

With the 12 game schedule, some schools may be looking to schedule their easiest game first in order to mitigate the effect of offseason misbehavior by their players, which can lead to Game 1 suspensions. If you’re going to be missing a few players you might as well be able to win by merely going through the motions against a Sun Belt or 1-AA team.

For example, Florida State’s numerous three-game academic suspensions won’t matter much in two of those games, as the Seminoles, who don’t play this week, open with consecutive home affairs against Western Carolina and Chattanooga.

Of course, finances are an issue as well. 1-AA teams will serve as sacrificial lambs for the big boys for $300,000 or so, while 1-A teams are getting more expensive. Sun Belt champ Florida Atlantic is getting $900,000 to visit Texas Saturday.

It simply isn’t a terribly interesting card this weekend. There are only four games taking place between BCS conference teams that had winning records last season. And while Illinois/Missouri and Clemson/Alabama are compelling neutral site affairs, Michigan State at Cal and USC at Virginia are merely mildly interesting.

This isn’t to say that there isn’t some value out there from a pointspread perspective, because if your handicapping is on and your opinions are sound, you can make money. But for a fan, or for those who prefer to handicap quality games, this isn’t the week for you.

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If you’re looking to the exhibition season to see how good these NFL teams are, good luck. It is awfully difficult to get a handle on the true strength of NFL teams in the preseason. The action that takes place involves guys who are unlikely to play an important role on their teams, if they even make the club. The second half of these games are often of most interest to Arena Football scouts, as the players have little chance of making it in the NFL.

But the one exception is this week. Coaches want their top players to go through a routine of preparing for a game. They want to give them a little time together to try to regenerate any chemistry that they may have developed the year before. And they hold their breath and hope that nobody gets hurt before they pull them at halftime.

As a result the first halves of the games this week may actually have just a little bit of value for the handicapper who wants to see how these teams stack up. In some cases you may even see teams playing starters vs. starters into the third quarter (to find out you’ll have to check the play-by-play logs if you’re not watching live).

Of course there’s still no Peyton Manning for the Colts, no Tom Brady for the Patriots, and there are other top players being held out of action as well. And the players aren’t stupid, there’s not regular season intensity. But they do try to get some work done this week.

Of course the lack of intensity isn’t the only drawback. Though the starters will be playing, there’s still the issue of not wanting to provide any valuable film for future opponents. So your uncreative offensive scheme matches up against the vanilla defense. But at least this week, in the first half of the games, you’ll have mostly starters playing. And that may be worth paying just the slightest bit of attention to.

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Howard Schnellenberger’s been around the block a few times, to say the least, and he’s done a great job in building the Florida Atlantic program from a gleam in some administrators’ eyes to the top program in the Sun Belt. Of course the top program in the Sun Belt is like saying that you have the best pulled pork barbecue in Northern Minnesota, but still, FAU isn’t half-bad, whipping Memphis in a bowl game last year, hanging around with USF, etc.

But while the Owls have a lot of talent back (relatively speaking), there is still a huge class difference between FAU and the major powers in college football. Their best chance is to catch their major conference opponents not taking them seriously.

So if you were thinking of taking 22.5 with FAU at Texas next Saturday, you should be aware of comments that Coach Schnellenberger made to the FAU student newspaper. Schnellenberger said that Texas “has great talent, but they aren’t tough, they aren’t a physically tough football team.”

Why would you fire up your opponent by calling them out on their toughness? I have no idea. But I’d hate to be a FAU wide receiver going over the middle of the field in this ballgame.

And if part of your handicap was that that Mack Brown might be gentlemanly by not scoring late in the game, you might want to rethink how juicy those 22.5 points actually appear in that ballgame.

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Later this morning (Tuesday) at 10:50AM Central (11:50 EDT) I’ll be on the venerable Norm Hitzges’ show in Dallas. Here’s a little handicapping broadcasting history for you…back when Norm was handicapping college football on ESPN he had what was likely the most prodigious lengthy win streak in broadcasting history, going something like 27-4 to conclude the 1993 college football season. Norm has been at the forefront of the Dallas sports media for decade and he knows more than a little about the wagering world. Appearances with him are always rollicking good fun, so listen in on 1310 The Ticket.

On Wednesday at 7:05PM Pacific Time (10:05PM EDT) I’ll be on the Wheels After Work program with Ken Vance (Ken’s co-host Brian Wheeler is off tomorrow) on Portland’s 95.5 The Game. I don’t know Ken, but maybe I’ll phony it up and pretend we’re old friends (the way radio people do) just to try to throw him off.

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Today’s the first day of the football season. It is for us here anyway. We’ve actually been buried in football preparation for a while now, and starting today and going forward we’ll be sharing some of that here with you.

So what kind of preparation takes place? Original work, first. After doing my own work all summer, I actually just bought a few of the annuals in the last couple of days. I prefer that my own opinions are not unduly influenced by those of others. So it is interesting to see how the conclusions I reach differ from others (let’s play out the season before handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Vikings, please). But then again, I’m looking at different factors.

I’m really not interested in what team is going to finish ahead of what other team in the standings, I’m looking for teams that are going to be overrated or underrated heading into the campaign from a betting perspective. I couldn’t be any less interested in the Heisman Trophy (until the pursuit of it becomes a slight pointspread factor in a few games late in the season), while many have great interest in the goings on of the New York Athletic Club. So some of these annuals are more valuable to me than others.

Last year I saw the 49ers as an underrated team (remember the young talented Niners ready to burst on the scene?)…until I saw that everyone else considered them to be that way as well. And then they went from underrated to overrated in my mind, based just on public perception. In addition to the aforementioned Vikings, now that the Jets have picked up Favre, they suddenly may have a little too much expected out of them as well.

The one annual you must have if you’re looking to do statistical work in the college and pros is Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Annual. I’d say that even if I didn’t offer a slight contribution to it. What’s especially strong about Marc’s is that it contains both college and pro in the same book. I also like the alphabetical listings. I understand the thought of breaking things down by conference and division, but in oft-used handicapping resource I far prefer alphabetical.

For college personnel information obviously Phil Steele’s book is tops and Blue Ribbon is good, too. I’ve hardly done a comprehensive view of the marketplace but Marc, Phil, and Blue Ribbon will all be references for me early, while I’ll use Marc’s book throughout the year as well due to the ease in finding past statistical data for both college and pros.

There’s such saturation coverage of the NFL these days I wonder if there’s even a need for an NFL annual anymore. Fantasy football has brought it all to the forefront. NFL information is common currency. That’s helpful to the handicapper in that everyone’s following the same narrative, creating a groundswell of opinion providing greater value than ever before to the contrarian thinker.

So there’s some light thoughts on preseason preparation and some of the widely available football resources. If you’d like a copy of my Maximum Profit Football Annual (and you’re not already on our mailing list) listing a few overrated and underrated teams, visit FootballAnnual.com to claim your free copy.

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