In Thursday’s daytime Atlantic 10 games, fatigue shouldn’t be a factor for the teams that played on Wednesday. Despite taking overtime to beat St. Louis yesterday Dayton only had two guys play more than 31 minutes due to their 8-man rotation. And keep in mind that games against St. Louis are not exactly up and down the court affairs. Meanwhile, St. Joseph’s won easily yesterday and nobody played more than 30 minutes for the Hawks yesterday. Both teams should be reasonably fresh, or at least not overly fatigued.

Colorado State pulled a 0-16 doughnut in Mountain West play before beating Wyoming in a bizarre game yesterday. 3-point shooting keys a lot of upsets, but that wasn’t the case here. With CSU’s fine center Stuart Creason out with an injury, Wyoming figured to dominate the game inside. Instead Colorado State shot 18-30 from 2-point range while Wyoming bricked their way to 15-42 on 2-point attempts, including 14 missed layups. Just a horrid effort by Wyoming, who on paper had Colorado State significantly outmanned. Top Mountain West seed BYU is CSU’s “reward” today.

The major conference tournaments get started on Wednesday, but not all of the premier teams in the country will be giving their top effort in every game. Most coaches, fans, and players would trade a Final Four berth for a conference tournament. Some coaches don’t want to enter the NCAA’s on a potential empty tank after playing three games in a row the previous weekend.

For example, everyone knows that UCLA was in the Final Four last season. But few remember that they lost to Cal as a 15-point favorite in their opening Pac Ten Conference Tournament game. With a favorable seed assured, the focus of the Bruins was not on the Pac Ten tourney title. It was on the NCAA tournament.

But not all conference tourneys are created equally. The ACC and Big East tournaments are extremely important to the participating teams. Those two leagues have tremendous tradition and their postseason affairs are a happening for those within the conference. The tourney championship is a much bigger feather in the cap of ACC and Big East teams than it is elsewhere. As a result, the coaches, players, and fans all care, and the effort the teams bring to the table reflects that.

Bettors need to remember that teams are more likely to rest on their laurels in the Pac Ten, Big 12, and Big 10 tournaments. There may be occassions to handicap for conference tournament disinterest by teams that are safely in the NCAA’s. But in New York and Charlotte look for teams to bring their top effort throughout this weekend.

That’s just one small aspect of the 100+ games that are on our plate this week. Good luck in the conference tournaments. If you’re interested in our total information package for the rest of college basketball, call me in the office at 770-649-1078.

Every 18 years, Andrew Beyer journeys to the Southern Hemisphere in an effort to become the dominant horse betting force in his host country. Beyer’s work ethic is legendary, but shouldn’t he have noticed the 29% takeout and small wagering pools in the midst of his year of research into Argentinian racing?

The New York Stock Exchange erupted in cheers upon hearing of the demise of New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, who’s dalliance with a high-priced hooker is now part of the public record. Sports bettors with long memories likely share Wall Street’s sentiments.

Until Bill Frist snuck UEIGA through in the final 20 minutes of the 2006 Congressional session, attaching anti-gambling legislation that couldn’t get passed on it’s merits, Spitzer was the most effective regulatory opponent of online sports bettors and poker players. It was Spitzer who pressured the banking industry to the point where it became very difficult to fund wagering accounts with credit cards.

No love for the bullying Spitzer from this corner, but it is tough to celebrate when you think of his three lovely daughters and the ordeal that their hypocritical and self-righteous father is putting them through.

Coaches in the West Coast Conference don’t like the idea of playing their conference tournament at campus sites, where San Diego plays Gonzaga on their home court tonight in the WCC final. Next year the conference moves the tournament to the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas.

Sounds great. Make a bet in the Orleans Sports Book, pop into the arena to watch a game, back to the book to bet between games. Vegas sports bettors couldn’t ask a conference to deliver them anything more convenient.

Not a classic evening of tournament basketball Thursday night as the worst four teams in the Missouri Valley Conference face off against each other in Arch Madness in St. Louis. Wichita State is getting a point-and-a-half from Indiana State while Missouri State is a double digit pick over hapless Evansville.

How did these teams get stuck in the Donkey Round? It is poor road play that did it. Good teams in college basketball protect their home court and then steal some wins on the road. These four did little of the latter. Missouri State, Indiana State, Wichita State, and Evansville went a combined 3-33 on the road in conference play this season, with Evansville suffering through a winless conference road season while the other three all went 1-8

Kudos to Missouri State for winning their last three games and playing hard even though they had no real chance of escaping tonight’s action, but the Bears do seem interested in saving Barry Hinson’s job. The MSU vs. Evansville game is moderately interesting. Based on season-long numbers and current form, the 11-point spread seems somewhat justified. But in keeping with the “bad road team” theme of the night, it is worth noting that these two blew each other out in their regular season contests. Evansville won their home game by 19. Missouri State won their home game by 38.

When the more interesting action gets started tomorrow, remember that the MVC regular season champion hasn’t won the tournament since 1998. Conspiracy theorists should note that the only guarantee that the conference has of getting more than one NCAA tourney bid is for Drake (RPI 14) to not be cutting down the nets on Sunday.

This afternoon at 5PM Eastern Time (2PM Pacific), I’ll be on the Leroy’s Sports Hour with John Kelly, sponsored by the Leroy’s Sports Book chain in Nevada. You can listen online here or on KENO 920AM in Las Vegas or KPLY 630AM in Reno. John’s a sharp analyst and bettor himself, and enjoys putting his guests on the spot with challenging questions.

On the air with John on February 21, he spoke of the gaudy pointspread record that the top teams in college basketball enjoyed. He mentioned that the top six teams in college basketball (Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, and UCLA) had combined for an extraordinary pointspread record. I’ve got them as a combined 84-52-3 (61.7%) up to that date. John then asked me if I had to choose between betting every game on and betting every game against all those teams, which would I choose.

I told John that if forced to make that choice, I would bet against those clubs. My reasoning was that in addition to them becoming overvalued, they would likely have good seeds sewn up, giving them a lack motivation in their conference tournaments, when coaches with bigger fish to fry don’t like to empty their tank.

Thus far my instinct has proven to be correct. Those teams have combined to go 6-12-1 against the spread since John and I talked the afternoon of February 21. Since Memphis and Tennessee played each other, applying a “bet against” strategy would actually be 11-5-1, or 68.7% against the spread.

And no, although I wish I had, I have not blindly bet against these “SuperTeams”. But it is something to remember going forward, after all, we’ll have a new set of SuperTeams with gaudy records in the middle of February next year.

This is annually a good time of year for us on our late telephone service, as following these teams closely all year long allows us to isolate favorable situations and matchups in both college and the NBA. Our late phones are 5-0 the past three days, covering the spread by 83 points in those games, and from now through the conference tourneys, the NIT, the NCAA’s and the end of the NBA regular season is annually a strong time for us.

If you’re looking for someone to do all your basketball work for you, we’ve got a package that will take you through the tournaments and all the way to the end of the NBA regular season. You get all our selections, plenty of analysis, all three books that I’ve written on sports betting, and you get it all for one low price. Unless you’re a vegan, or prefer ramen noodles, it is probably less than you spend on lunch each day. Call me personally in the office at 770-649-1078 for rates, details, and answers to any questions you might have.

Defense is not a Keystone: Pitt is a hard-knocking, sound, defensive team, right? Not exactly. In their last four games Pitt has permitted opponents to shoot 112-210 (53.3%). Panther guard Levance Fields may have returned too early from his injury, as his defense has been lacking and he’s shooting only 18-61 (29.5%) from the field since his return.

Pitt’s not the only Keystone State team playing poor defense. Penn has allowed 13 opponents to shoot over 47% against them this season, explaining their worst season in a generation. Who cares about Penn, you ask? Hey, they’ve got three games left for you to go on, against, over, or under. But not caring about Penn seems to be the status quo, as an opportunity to be part of the Penn Sports Network radio team for the Columbia game Saturday night has earned a top bid of a whopping $50.

Pennsylvania teams in the A-10 are sharing in the statewide defensive struggle. In their last five games LaSalle has allowed opponents to shoot 52.3% (154-294). The Explorers were underdogs in each contest yet have somehow won 4 of the 5 game despite allowing opponents to score almost at will. St. Joseph’s was in good shape for a tourney bid before losing 5 of their last 7. St. Joe’s defense is what sent them careening into the ditch, as they’ve allowed 50% or more shooting in 4 of those 7 games.

Why can’t these Pennsylvania teams play defense?

NBA D Not Much Better: A lot of NBA teams aren’t exactly tearing it up defensively either. After blowing a late lead by allowing the Lakers to score 36 in the final quarter last night, the Sacramento Kings have permitting their last five opponents to shoot 204-409, just a shot under 50%.

The “playoff contending” Atlanta Hawks allowed Golden State to go for 30 or more in each quarter last night and gave up 55 field goals in a 135-118 home loss. It was the fifth time Atlanta has allowed 110 points or more since the All Star Break. It doesn’t speak well for the East that the 24-34 Hawks are a game out of the #8 playoff spot.

Largely populated with players who spent an uncompetitve spring with the Celtics last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed 82-154 shooting to weak sisters Charlotte and Seattle in their lat two games. Allowing a pair of teams that are a combined 46 games under .500 to shoot over 53% against you is not a sign of a non-contender playing hard down the stretch.

Spotting the bad teams working and the bad teams tanking could lead you to some profits down the stretch.

The Monday college basketball card has a couple of interesting games in which sizable favorites may be in letdown territory. Kansas and Gonzaga were each extremely motivated in their Saturday night home games, each earning revenge victories in front of rabid home crowds. Now they come back at home 48 hours later in front of somewhat less enthusiastic crowds and probably without quite the same hunger for victory.

Both teams are in better position to win their conferences than they were heading into the weekend’s action, but still may suffer from emptying their emotional tank on Saturday. Let’s look at the challenge faced by each team.

Kansas crushed Kansas State from the get go in front of the ESPN cameras and studio crew on Saturday night. A 32-11 lead turned into an 88-74 win that really wasn’t that close. The Jayhawk effort was evident in a pair of incredible statistics, 15 steals and 21 offensive rebounds.

What Motivates Kansas Tonight? Texas Tech knocked off Texas on Saturday. But Tech’s most recent road game was a 98-54 shellacking at Texas A&M last Wednesday. That game won’t be mentioned by Bill Self and his staff, but an upset loss by KU to the Red Raiders in Lubbock last year will be. Senior Night is meaningful here, as this is last game at Allen Fieldhouse for Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun, and possibly junior Brandon Rush. No way KU can come with the fire they had on Saturday night, but now tied for the conference lead with Texas, there’s enough there to have them interested in this game.

Gonzaga had lost only a single conference game all season, and that loss at St. Mary’s had them fired up to play the Gaels on Saturday night. “Everyone on this campus has been looking forward to this game for a long time,” the Zags Jeremy Pargo said on Saturday night.

The result was a scintillating victory against a very good team in a game that saw 17 lead changes. Again, we have a team that emptied their tank to win a game they wanted badly.

What Motivates Gonzaga Tonight? Bulldog Matt Bouldin gives three reasons,”They beat us here last year, it’s Senior Night and we sure don’t want to share this thing.”

The “thing” is the conference title. While it doesn’t look like motivation will be a problem, what about that 15 points that they’re laying? Santa Clara lost by only 5 at home to Gonzaga earlier this season and shot 52% against the Zags, a season high against the Gonzaga D by far (every other opponent has shot 47.2 or less). That provides additional motivation for Gonzaga but again, Bouldin’s quote shows that there’s plenty of fodder.

In the last 13 months the results in this series have been the aforementioned Gonzaga by 5 at Santa Clara, Gonzaga by 9 in the conference tournament last year, Santa Clara’s stunner by 11 here last year, and a Gonzaga win at by 8 Santa Clara last year, the series was remarkably consistent previously. Gonzaga was 7-0 against Santa Clara from 2004-2006 with 6 of those wins by between 13 and 17 points. With Santa Clara only 13-14 this year, that 15-point spread makes more and more sense.

Arizona needs today’s game with UCLA desperately. Their NCAA tourney chances diminish greatly with a loss here. And one would expect a peak effort from the Wildcats off of their disappointing 12-point loss to USC on Thursday. But as Arizona tries to avenge their 82-60 loss earlier this season at Pauley, there are signs that the Wildcats simply aren’t good enough to get the job done here.

Arizona has struggled without point guard Nic Wise in the lineup. Wise is not a heralded player, but was obviously an effective distributor, adept at putting his teammates in positions to make shots. Starting with their conference opener, in the ten games Wise started Arizona shot 253-511 (49.5%) from the field. In the six games that Wise has missed, the Wildcats are shooting only 123-286 (43%).

That sort of shooting disparity is sometimes seen as a team going cold. But there’s more to it than that. Shooting percentage is influenced significantly by the quality of shots taken. Though his assist numbers were not gaudy, Wise obviously did a good job running the Arizona offense in a way that put his teammates in a position to make shots. It is hoped that he’ll be back for the Pac Ten tourney.

UCLA has enjoyed significant success against Arizona, winning 6 straight against the Wildcats, covering 5 of those 6. The one Arizona poinstpread cover was by a point and a half, while the UCLA covers were by 13, 16, 6, 7.5, and 17. The Bruins seem to put a lot of focus on their games against the Wildcats. “For some reason we play well against Arizona. I think we really get up for them,” UCLA’s Josh Shipp tells the Los Angeles Times.

UCLA appears to match up well against Arizona again this season. In that earlier 82-60 home win over Arizona UCLA hit only 2 of 10 three-pointers but nailed 30 of their 46 two-point field goal attempts. Arizona’s interior defense has been far from a strength this season and there is reason to expect that Kevin Love will have a big game.

UCLA has the better offense, the better defense, and really seems to have Arizona’s number. So despite Arizona’s desperate need and the great situation they’re in, I won’t be playing them, as disadvantageous matchups conflict with the positive situation.