Can you believe baseball is starting? Our baseball totals, especially early, carry a confidence level as high as anything else we do. I don’t handicap hardball myself, but have a guy who does it for me. I’ve known him for 12 years and have always followed his baseball. We figured out a few years ago that his totals were extraordinary and sides just above average. So we’ve been focusing on these very strong totals for years now.

Annually, he starts the campaign ahead of the linemaker, including starts of 13-1, 53-29, and 18-7. Last year his start wasn’t as blistering, but we still finished up double-digit units on the season. And when I refer to units, I’m talking about one unit per play, no phony “unit padding” or “multiple star” plays.

Why does our baseball guy get off to such hot starts? He handicaps only baseball totals. Nothing else. No football, baskets, horses, hockey, or tiddly winks.

Why is he so far ahead of the linemaker? He has his own ratings systems and formulas. He does a lot of work in every aspect of the game that influences scoring. He knows a lot of people who follow baseball closely and uses this network to ascertain the true health of pitchers through the long season.

He also does a lot of work on groundball/flyball, power/finesse, and other profiling of pitching style analysis. He does this for every pitcher in the league. He also knows how every hitter fits these metrics. He knows what key players can’t hit groundball pitchers. He knows what pitchers get pounded by teams that hit “finesse” pitching better than guys who throw hard. He knows about the middle relievers, the setup men, the closers, and how teams hit these guys.

He has tremendous contacts at the pinnacle of the Bill James style “Moneyball” form of analysis who respect his work immensely. He is often ahead of the curve on things because of that. He also studies the ballparks and how they influence hitters at different times of the year.

Here’s what you get with our “totals only” baseball service.

• An average of two plays per day in recent years. He’s not hungry for action, though he has a lot of action early most years. He’ll pass some days.
• All plays released by 10AM EDT via a toll-free recorded voice mail with your own personal code. Call and act on the information at your convenience.
• Annual strong starts, this is not a “see how he does and maybe jump on” service. If you want good info on hardball totals, act now.

You can’t buy these plays by the day or by the week. I’ll let others hype up “games of the month” and “big play specials.” We have a seasonal plan and a flexible month-t0-month plan, with no daily or weekly sales either online or off. Instead of thinking up promotions, he’s analyzing pitchers, hitters, ballparks, and everything that goes along with succeeding in baseball.

He passed Monday, but if you’re interested in getting going with the likely first selections on Tuesday, call me in the office at 770-649-1078. If I don’t answer leave a message and I’ll call you back personally (no salespeople employed here).

I believe strongly that our “totals only” baseball plan is one of the best opportunities out there. Call 1-770-649-1078 for any questions you may have.

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Bettors who respected the quality of play in the Big East Conference have been rewarded in the tournament, with the Big East teams posting a 12-4 record to the pointspread after week one of the tournament. That 75% winning clip is the best record of all multiple-bid conferences.

The only multiple-bid conference more than a game under .500 in the first two rounds is the West Coast Conference, 1-3 to the number as San Diego’s upset of Connecticut in the first round was the only cover for that loop.

Let’s look at all multiple-bid conference and their pointspread records.

12-4 Big East

5-2 Big Ten

7-4 Big 12

2-1 Sun Belt

4-3 ACC

2-2 Atlantic Ten

4-5 Pac Ten

1-2 Mountain West

1-3 West Coast Conference

As favorites went 30-18 against the spread last weekend it is no surprise that some of the power conferences have solid records. The six BCS conferences covered at a 19-7 rate against non-power conference oppositions.

12 of the remaining 16 teams represent the major conferences, with the four exceptions being Memphis, Xavier, Davidson, and Western Kentucky.

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Why bet before a horse race when you can wait until it has already started? Seven and a half years after the 2002 Breeders Cup Pick Six scandal led Andrew Beyer to write about widespread assumptions among horseplayers that races were being past-posted, Bloodhorse.com reports that there are still documented instances of wagering after the start of horse races. And who knows how many go undiscovered or are swept under the rug by track and tote officials who don’t want to upset the apple cart?

Lexington, Kentucky bettor Mike Maloney has been conducting a one-man crusade to correct this situation. Maloney points out that tracks do not record the time that gates open to the second, it is only reported to the minute. In the Bloodhorse article linked to above, Maloney correctly comments “that this could happen this deep into the simulcasting age is just mind-boggling.”

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Statistical notes from the weekend games that tell us how the Sweet 16 got there:

Washington State: Ferocious D against a potent Notre Dame team. Held the Irish to a stunning 13-53 from the field. Held on to the basketball as well, committing only 7 turnovers, while forcing 13.

North Carolina: When your opponent is giving you an open path to the basket and you shoot 44-65 you’re going to win a lot of games.

Louisville: Played a brilliant game offensively, with assists on 24 of their 32 baskets. Held OU to 15 field goals. Lone weakness shown was hitting only 5-15 from the charity stripe.

Tennessee: Gave up no easy baskets, holding Butler to 13-35 on two-point shots. The interior D combined with a 43-34 board edge permitted them to survive, advance, and (unfortunately) cover the 4 1/2 in a five-point OT win.

West Virginia: Only 11 of their 62 shots were from 3-point land, compared to 22 3-pointers in 50 attempts for Duke. Only 6 assists on 19 baskets for Duke. Mountaineers 19-22 from the free throw line sealed it.

Xavier: an efficient 22-38 from inside the arc, and 26-33 from the free throw line left few potential points unclaimed.

Western Kentucky: Caught Drake on a terrible shooting night in Round 1, scored by playing inferior San Diego in the 2nd round.

UCLA: Won evenly played (.444-.431 shooting, 27-26 rebounding) war with A&M on the sheer force of their will, with suffocating second half defense. Aggie defense was disruptive, as Bruins had only 7 assists on 20 FG’s. The ultimate “survive and advance” effort.

Villanova: Outmanned Siena couldn’t come up with a second big effort in three days. ‘Nova won shooting .535-.357, rebounding 35-30.

Kansas: 24-38 from inside the arc. Held UNLV to 12 made field goals, partially by fouling, as Rebels converted 27 free throws.

Davidson: Amazing box score, as Georgetown outshot Davidson .634-.386. 3-point shots were 10-18 for GU, 6-28 for DU. So how did the Wildcats do it? Try forcing 20 turnovers and committing only 4 yourself and see how meaningless shooting percentages become.

Wisconsin: Defense permitted guys not named Beasley or Walker to score only 14 of Kansas State’s 55 points. Discombobulated KSU notched only 4 assists on the day.

Michigan State: Similar defensive effort to that of Wisconsin above, holding Pitt to only 4 assists. Panthers were 2-17 from 3-point territory. MSU shot only 9 free throws, but hit them all.

Memphis: 42-31 board edge over Mississippi State was meaningful, 15-32 from the free throw line was troubling.

Stanford: Prevailed in a well-played overtime game where both the Cardinal and Marquette were in single digits in turnovers in 45 minutes of action. Assists on 23 of 28 baskets.

Texas: 13-26 from three-point land, 39-27 board edge. Those provided a buffer that permitted the Longhorns to hold off a late Miami Hurricane rally.

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Friday’s sites of Raleigh, Tampa, Little Rock, and Birmingham was not exactly the pinnacle of geographic diversity, was it? The Southeastern Regional continues when those sites hold two games each on Easter Sunday.The games in Tampa certainly deserve all the attention, and the Western Kentucky, Villanova, Siena, San Diego money line parlay paid better than 225-1 to those prescient enough to bet it (and resourceful enough to find a place that would provide an honest payoff). Those games guaranteed a pair of Sweet 16 Cinderellas (if a Big East team can be a Cinderella), but after a formful evening favorites and dogs split 8-8 to the number. The Little Rock and Birmingham games held significantly less drama than Tampa, all decided by 7 points or more.

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Look for the TV sports networks to be wall-to-wall Belmont/Duke highlights, as if they want to keep their audience they have no other choice.  There simply wasn’t much competitive basketball on Thursday in the NCAA basketball tournament.   How non-competitive was it?
 
To start with, favorites were 13-3 to the pointspread, and that only scratches the surface of how uninteresting the games were.  13 of the 16 games were decided by double-digits, while 6 of the 16 games had halftime margins of 19 points or more.   Even the few games that looked interesting at halftime turned into routs, with Xavier outscoring Georgia 46-27 after halftime and Washington State blowing open a tie game with a 42-11 second half stampede over Winthrop.
 
The one thing that kept bettors interested were the totals.  Not only did overs and unders split to one closing line, going 8-8, but many were decided purely by happenstance. 6 of 16 games stayed under or went over by one point or less, with Arizona/West Virginia, Portland State/Kansas, Kent State/UNLV, Winthrop/Washington State, Temple/Michigan State, and Texas A&M/BYU all being glorious winners or gut-wrenching losers for totals players.  
 
The winners on Thursday were chalk players, as well as over/under bettors who shopped for lines and timed their wagers well.  Hopefully Friday’s card does a bit more to retain our interest.

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Basketball is a game of matchups, and that adage proves most true when a slow-paced team battles a team that prefers to play at a quicker tempo.  There are a couple of interesting Thursday games where the tempo will likely decide the victor, or at least decide the pointspread cover.

Let’s take a look.

Purdue vs. Baylor:  WIth this over/under line right around 140.5, Purdue hasn’t played a game with the total this high since December 8th, while 13 of Baylors last 14 games have had a total higher than this.  Purdue games average 104 field goal attempts, while Baylor games average 122 field goal attempts.  Both teams average game is a 7-point win, Purdue averages a 68.7-61.2 result, while Baylor averages a 81.4-74.4 win.  Despite allowing 13 points more per game, Baylor actaully holds opponents to a lower field goal percentage (42.8% to 43.3%).  Obviously Baylor wants to play fast, Purdue is more comfortable playing a bit slower, and the result will likely be determined by who plays the game at their comfort level.

George Mason vs. Notre Dame: The recent history of the over/under lines of these two teams tell us a lot about them.  6 of George Mason’s last 7 games have had lines below 130, while Notre Dame’s last 14 have had over/under totals of 141.5 or more despite playing in the low-scoring Big East.  George Mason allows 7 ponts fewer than Notre Dame despite having a higher defensive FG% allowed than the Irish.  Clearly this is another case of one team wanting to slow it down and the other team wanting to run.

So what do we do with this information? If these teams fight to play at thier comfort level, do the parlays of Purdue/under, Baylor/over, George Mason/under, and Notre Dame/over make sense?  You could certainly make a case for them.  But while logical, such parlays seem to work out less often than they should.  What you may want to do is to keep the preferred styles in mind when you analyze the results of these games.  Be more impressed with the victor if they are able to take control at a pace they’re uncomfortable with, and be more willing to go against them on Saturday if they win with the pace in their favor.

Good luck on Thursday.

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Everyone loves tourney upsets. But as tempting as it is to pick dark horses to go deep into the NCAA tournament, the top seeds dominate. Going back to 1990, 14 of the last 17 NCAA tournament champions have been either a 1 seed (11 times) or a 2 seed (3 times). And the other winners weren’t exactly impossible to sniff out, as there have been a pair of 3 seeds (Florida in 2006, Syracuse in 2003) and a #4 seed (Arizona in 1997).

Incidentally, an important lesson for lower seeds in the Final Four is to invite me to the games, as the winners of the only two Final Fours I’ve been to since I was in college were the above mentioned Arizona in ‘97 and Syracuse in ‘03.

In the past 17 years, 66% (45 of 68) of Final Four teams have been either a #1 seed (29) or a #2 seed (16). To put it another way, #1 seeds have made the Final Four 42.6% of the time and #2 seeds have made the Final Four 22% of the time.

Being toughened by a major conference schedule is also critical. Since UNLV’s consecutive appearances in the Finals in 1990 and 1991, 61 of 64 Final Four slots have gone to teams that are currently in one of the six BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC). The exceptions were George Mason in 2006, Utah in 1998, and UMass in 1996. During that time, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Marquette all made one Final Four each before they joined the Big East.

When you’re choosing your brackets are betting your futures, remember that these top seeds dominate. But when it comes to your betting, remember that the pointspread can be a very effective equalizer.

Plenty more Tourney notes throughout the week. So come back and check us out.

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There’s obviously a ton of scoring in the NBA this season, most if it in the Western Conference. As a result, very high totals are being posted. In the past eleven days (ending Monday) at least one game has had a total of 210 posted every day. You have to go back to Thursday, November 6th, which saw only three games played, to find a day without at least one total listed at 210 or more.

These high totaled games are still flying over. Even after an 0-2 to the under on Monday night, in games with totals of 210 or more the over is 15-8-1 in that time frame. The bulk of the profit is in extremely high totaled games, as games with over/under lines of 220 or more are 9-3 to the over.

There’s a lot of scoring, and the totals reflect that. But the last week and a half suggest that the linemakers haven’t adjusted the numbers high enough, particularly in the games that the betting markets suggest are most likely to see fireworks.

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In the five college conference tournament games that went to overtime on Thursday, each game was won outright in the extra session (or sessions) by the underdog. Pitt, Colorado, Georgia, Tulsa, and Utah all pulled upsets in games that went to OT.

I’d be very careful about playing those teams on Friday. The all-out effort and extra minutes could lead to fatigue, and teams that pull upsets in early rounds of conference tournaments often underperform in their next game. All situations are different, but reviewing the “minutes played” column of the box scores and reading the game stories and sidebars in local papers should give you an idea as to whether these clubs will be out of gas in the second halves of their games today.

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