A Couple of Friday Basketball Links

Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune does a nice job with his NBA blog. This week Siler details his travel during a 4 games in 5 nights set for the Jazz and it ain’t pretty. Skim it and then remember that until about 15 years ago NBA teams used to mainly fly commercial before transitioning to private charters.

Patrick Patterson’s injury is devastating for a Kentucky team that has always played hard through their injuries and adversity this season. Patterson has been carrying the Wildcats. But you have to wonder if this might increase the chances of Patterson sticking around for another year?

Random Thursday Hoops Notes

Off-Broadway Debut: Though Devin Harris is considered to be a “game time decision” for New Jersey tonight, it certainly looks like the Nets expect him to make his debut for them this evening.

Sick Trojans? Valuable point guard Daniel Hackett is expected to return for USC at Arizona tonight, but how much he’ll play is unknown. Note that he’s dealing more than back issues, as Hackett missed practice yesterday with flu-like symptoms. Coach Tim Floyd missed practice with the same symptoms. Will more Trojans be battling a bug this evening?

PC Alert: Arkansas State plays a home game as the Indians for the last time ever this evening. Replacing their coach last week and suffering through a lengthy losing streak, don’t expect a giant groundswell of crowd support and emotion to help ASU this evening.

Panther Problems: Marcus Skinner is a strong rebounder for a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that has had a lot of attrition on the front line. He is unlikely to play tonight against Loyola-Chicago due to a high ankle sprain. His backup had a big night in a loss to Valpo on Monday, but had played only 113 minutes all season prior to that.

College Upsets Keyed By Poor 3-Point Shooting

7 for 26 is an ugly stat line for the Tennessee. That’s what Tennessee has shot from behind the arc in both of their losses in conference play. And while neither last night’s vanquishing by Vandy or the January 22nd loss to Kentucky were true stunners, the .269 shooting in each of those losses illustrates how many college basketball upsets are keyed by poor three-point shooting.

Let’s look at the losses by some elite teams this month and see how they shot from outside the arc.

In UCLA’s 71-61 loss to Washington, the Bruins shot 1-16 on 3-point field goals. Kansas shot poorly from outside in losses at Texas (4-17) and Oklahoma State (2-11). Duke’s loss to Wake Forest saw them go 2-17 from outside the arc.

And it is little different across the rest of college basketball. Outside of the Kansas loss to Oklahoma State, the only other double digit favorite to lose this past weekend was Duquesne, who shot 4-20 from 3-point land in their loss to LaSalle.

There is definitely a randomness to three-point shooting. Sure, some teams just can’t shoot, and some defend the arc with aplomb. But in so many instances, we’re going to see teams revert back to their true quality in the game or two following an upset caused by poor 3-point shooting. And the same would be true when an upsetter shoots lights out, raining in the threes.

As a general rule, when 3-point shooting causes an upset, don’t be too quick to upgrade the winner and be careful about downgrading the loser.

2,000,000-1 Payout, $4 Million Loser, Horse Betting Fratricide

Turning A Toothpick into a Lumberyard: A British fertilizer salesman collected 2,000,000-1 on a 50 pence (about a buck) wager. The natural odds on Freddie Crags’ 8-horse parlay were actually about 2,800,000-1, but William Hill has a million-pound cap on payouts.

Funding Crags’ Hit: Don’t Cry for William Hill, as greyhound trainer Graham Calvert lost over 2,000,000 pounds (yep, about $4 million bucks) to the bookmaking firm. Calvert is suing the company for allowing him to continue to wager on the phone after they agreed to ban him.

World’s Dumbest Industry? Andrew Beyer gives the latest rundown on the fratricide within the horse racing industry that keeps many bettors from being able to wager on the high-profile tracks they favor. Alienating the public with these turf wars will only escalate the descent of this rapidly declining sport.

Friday Night BracketBuster

Since Friday is about the messiest day I’ve ever seen in the NBA, with all the trades and injuries having nearly every roster in a state of flux, let’s take a look at the attractive BracketBuster game tonight. These schools, both with excellent programs, are less than an hour apart in the Charlotte area. So how have Davidson and Winthrop not played since 1992?

I don’t like to play against quality home dogs, but if I had to play it tonight, I’d lay the points. The Southern Conference is a much better conference than the Big South (Sagarin agrees), and Davidson has been right in there in games with North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State. They are simply a much more tested team. Also, the proximity of the schools lessens Winthrop’s home court edge. Look for Davidson to be challenged, but to emerge with a solid road win in a BracketBuster game that’s much more attractive than most of the junk being played tomorrow.

On The Radio: Leroy’s Sports Hour with John Kelly

Don’t know what I’ll talk about, as I hate the Thursday basketball card, but I’ll be on John Kelly’s “Leroy’s Sports Hour” this afternoon for a half hour or so some time between 2PM and 3PM Pacific (5PM to 6PM EST).

The show airs on KENO 1460AM in Vegas and KPLY 630AM in Reno. If you’re not within Vegas or Reno radio range, listen online here.

Pointspread Ramifications of College Hoops Coaching Changes

Arkansas State basketball coach Dickey Nutt has been fired. Nutt, whose brother Houston is the new Ole’ Miss football coach after a decade at Arkansas, had been the Indians coach for 13 years. ASU takes travels to arch rival Arkansas-Little Rock tonight. How will this team react?

Many bettors like to look for a NBA, MLB, or NHL team to play well for a few games for a new coach. Maybe a fresh approach gives the team a boost of energy, guys may be concerned for their jobs in a potential upcoming housecleaning, and perhaps focus improves when an uncertain situation develops clarity.

But there are seldom midseason coaching changes in college basketball. This year has been an exception, with coaches replaced at San Francisco, Pepperdine, Oregon State, Texas Tech, and LSU before this week’s move at Arkansas State.

A study of these teams after their coaching changes shows a mixed bag. Let’s study the pointspread results of these teams for the three games after a coaching change.

San Francisco: W, unlined, unlined

Pepperdine: W, L, W

Oregon State: L, L, W

Texas Tech: W, L, W

LSU: W, W, L

In the game following the dismissal of a coach , teams have gone 3-2 against the spread, they’ve gone 1-3 to the points in the second game and 3-1 to the number in the third contest after a coaching change. So in the first three games with a new coach, teams are 7-6 to the spread.

Obviously this isn’t much of a study. Not only are there too few data points to be meaningful, but the situations are all different. Some are out and out firings due to poor performance (Oregon State). Some are less justifiable firings (LSU has been injury-riddled and was in the Final Four less than two years ago). San Francisco’s coach requested a leave of absence and as of now will return next season (he is being replaced by Eddie Sutton, who wanted his 800th win). Bobby Knight’s could be interpreted as an abandonment of a team that still had an outside shot at a tourney berth.

With the dynamics of every coaching move being different, a bettor has to research each individual situation and project how the team will react. My gut is that this works better in football, hockey, and baseball, where an infusion of energy and attitude can be meaningful for a couple of games. Pro athletes are far less wedded to their coach than the college kids are (Nutt’s son is a freshman guard for ASU) and have fewer worries about what the change means to them.

It will be interesting to see what kind of effort Arkansas State brings against UALR tonight.

Texans Minority Owner Faces Gambling Allegations

Javier Loya, a minority owner of the Houston Texans, apparently used to gamble a little bit with his employees. Or so says one who is suing him. John McClain’s article doesn’t seem indicate the form of gambling, but others suggest it was something called “Fantasy Football Futures”.

Of course, Loya, an Ivy League football player at Columbia in the early 90’s, can’t hold a handle to the Mara family, who bought the New York Giants with money earned from a bookmaking operation. Art Rooney bought the Steelers with money he made at the horse track.

Nobody should be shocked that sports-minded businessmen are not adverse to having a few bucks riding on the results of a game, whether it is pointspread-related or fantasy football for cash.

NBA Injuries: So Much for the All Star Freshening

You expect players to get a little healthy over the break and have some renewed energy, but some guys got banged up late last night in NBA action. Meanwhile, the status of others is up in the air. Let’s look at a few.

Golden State Warriors: Stephen Jackson may not play tonight against Boston. Baron Davis turned an ankle but says he is fine. The Warriors will face Kevin Garnett this evening. Garnett was 50/50 to play entering the Celtics shootaround this morning, but now he’s a go.

Atlanta Hawks: New acquisition Mike Bibby turned an ankle in his 16 minutes during Atlanta’s wipeout loss to the Lakers (trailed 69-28 late in the second quarter). He wants to go against his former team tonight, but he’s questionable after today’s shootaround.

New Jersey Nets: Devin Harris is at least a couple of weeks away from beginning his duties with the Nets due to a “Grade 2″ ankle sprain.

Toronto Raptors: TJ Ford is hurt. Again. Pulled a stomach muscle in Toronto’s first practice after the All Star Break.

Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas’ ballyhooed return to practice lasted all of five minutes today. Is his March 2nd target date for his return optimistic? Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson also missed.

Chicago Bulls: Ben Gordon is back. Luol Deng might be.

That’s not a comprehensive list, but it is a good start for you in an injury-riddled NBA.

NBA All Star Momentum Interruption

I’ll be easing back into the NBA in the next few days, but one way to come out firing that I’ve heard bandied about from time to time is to consider the NBA All Star Game to be a “momentum interruption”. The break, the idea holds, causes the hot teams to lose their edge while the cold teams enjoy a refreshing break.

If you subscribe to that line of thinking, you may wish to take a gander at the Atlanta Hawks this evening. The Hawks entered the break on a four-game losing streak while the Lakers have won four straight. Newly acquired Mike Bibby and his teammates will be getting used to each other, but he might bring Atlanta an infusion of energy as well. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how well Kobe will play with his bad pinkie.

If the theory of All Star Momentum Interruption makes sense to you, consider taking double digits with the Hawks tonight.

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