Arkansas State basketball coach Dickey Nutt has been fired. Nutt, whose brother Houston is the new Ole’ Miss football coach after a decade at Arkansas, had been the Indians coach for 13 years. ASU takes travels to arch rival Arkansas-Little Rock tonight. How will this team react?
Many bettors like to look for a NBA, MLB, or NHL team to play well for a few games for a new coach. Maybe a fresh approach gives the team a boost of energy, guys may be concerned for their jobs in a potential upcoming housecleaning, and perhaps focus improves when an uncertain situation develops clarity.
But there are seldom midseason coaching changes in college basketball. This year has been an exception, with coaches replaced at San Francisco, Pepperdine, Oregon State, Texas Tech, and LSU before this week’s move at Arkansas State.
A study of these teams after their coaching changes shows a mixed bag. Let’s study the pointspread results of these teams for the three games after a coaching change.
San Francisco: W, unlined, unlined
Pepperdine: W, L, W
Oregon State: L, L, W
Texas Tech: W, L, W
LSU: W, W, L
In the game following the dismissal of a coach , teams have gone 3-2 against the spread, they’ve gone 1-3 to the points in the second game and 3-1 to the number in the third contest after a coaching change. So in the first three games with a new coach, teams are 7-6 to the spread.
Obviously this isn’t much of a study. Not only are there too few data points to be meaningful, but the situations are all different. Some are out and out firings due to poor performance (Oregon State). Some are less justifiable firings (LSU has been injury-riddled and was in the Final Four less than two years ago). San Francisco’s coach requested a leave of absence and as of now will return next season (he is being replaced by Eddie Sutton, who wanted his 800th win). Bobby Knight’s could be interpreted as an abandonment of a team that still had an outside shot at a tourney berth.
With the dynamics of every coaching move being different, a bettor has to research each individual situation and project how the team will react. My gut is that this works better in football, hockey, and baseball, where an infusion of energy and attitude can be meaningful for a couple of games. Pro athletes are far less wedded to their coach than the college kids are (Nutt’s son is a freshman guard for ASU) and have fewer worries about what the change means to them.
It will be interesting to see what kind of effort Arkansas State brings against UALR tonight.