With the pointspreads settling in this weekend to New England -14 over San Diego and Green Bay -7 over the New York Giants, let’s take a look at some pointspread history in this round of the playoffs. We’ll look back to the 1990 season, when the current 12-team playoff format was adopted. All numbers are against the pointspread unless otherwise noted.

• Favorites are 19-15 against the spread in the conference championship games.
• From 1990 through 1997 favorites were 11-5.
• Underdogs then dominated from 1998-2003 as favorites went 3-9 to the pointspread.
• The last three seasons favorites have notched a 5-1 mark against the spread, though they were all small favorites of 5.5 or less.

This is the first time since 2001 that both conference championship favorites are favored by a touchdown or more.

• Favorites of 7 or more have gone 8-9 against the spread since 1990.
• Of the 9 underdogs of 7-points or more that covered pointspreads, 4 of them have won outright, with 3 of those 4 wins being by franchises playing this weekend. The 2001 Patriots won as a 10.5-point underdog in Pittsburgh. The 1998 Falcons won as a 10.5-point underdog in Minnesota. The 1994 Chargers won as a 9.5-point dog in Pittsburgh. And the 1990 Giants won while getting 8 points in San Francisco.
• The heaviest favorites have fared poorly. Favorites of 10-points or more are a poor 2-6 against the spread in the championship games.
• So teams favored between 7 and 9.5 are actually a profitable 6-3 to the pointspread.
• In 8 of the 17 years of the 12-team playoff format there have been favorites of 7 or more in both of the respective championship games. Only once did they both cover, ironically that was when Green Bay and New England both covered as big favorites on their way to meeting each other in the Super Bowl following the 1996 season.
• New England is favored by 14 points. During the time of this study, the only time that a team has been favored by 14 or more they failed to cover, as the 1999 Rams struggled to an ugly 11-6 win over the Bucs despite being favored by 14.5 points.

Remember that all this historical information is interesting, the games this weekend should be analyzed as the unique events that they are.

Weather looks to be of no concern in this weekend’s NFL playoff action.

Green Bay late Saturday Afternoon: Possible snow showers, but no wind and reasonable temperatures right around 30.

Foxborough on Saturday Night: Low to mid-30’s throughout the game, no precipitation, negligible winds.  About the best that can be hoped for this time of year up there.

Indianapolis on Sunday: Dry, no wind, and temps in the 70’s in the dome.

Dallas on Sunday: Sunny, winds 10 MPH or less (but really no wind at all, as Texas Stadium is all but domed over), temps dropping from the mid-50’s to the low-50’s during the course of the game.

A few years ago, the NFL divisional round was properly seen as a haven for favorite players. The rested chalk would routinely pound their less-fresh opposition into the ground. From the expansion of the playoffs to the current format beginning at the end of the 1990 season through the 2002 playoffs, favorites were 29-19-2 (60.4%) against the spread, with two of the games lined at pick during that time.

But anyone seeing that trend as meaningful since then has suffered, as the dogs have dominated, going 11-5 (68.7%) against the spread over the past four years.

The totals now stand 34-30-2 against the spread for favorites in this round since the expansion to the current format. Handicappers should approach each game as the unique challenge that it is and avoid worrying about any favorite/underdog bias.

I like the over some between the Grizzlies and Lakers. The Grizz are starting to pick up on Coach Iavaroni’s offense and as a result are starting to run a bit more. The offense has been pretty efficient since rookie PG Mike Conley returned from injury. But there a couple of red flags that could interfere with a high scoring game, Kobe Bryant isn’t exactly red hot right now, coming into this contest shooting 19 for 55 in his last three games. And it is easy to see the Lakers being a little flat, as a Tuesday night game in Memphis isn’t anything that is going to get them that excited, particularly with the Hornets on deck. And 216 is a pretty high number. But still, there is reason enough to expect this to be a high scoring game and there are probably worse plays on the card than this one over the total.

The stakes are high enough in NFL playoff games that teams probably don’t need additional motivation. But it is still worth noting that the Jacksonville Jaguars website has an asterisk next to the Patriots in their power rankings, with “cheated in one game” noted as the reason. The power rankings are credited to Jaguars.com Senior Editor Vic Ketchman.

Prepare your resume, Vic.

I’ll be on with John Kelly on the Leroy’s Sports Hour Tuesday at 2PM Las Vegas time (5PM Eastern Time) on Fox Sports Radio 1460AM in Vegas or ESPN Radio 630AM KPLY in Reno. Non-Nevadans can listen in right here on the interwebs.

Let’s take a look at some stats, facts, notes, and links surrounding Monday Night’s BCS Championship Game between LSU and Ohio State.

1. LSU and Ohio State are both loaded with big-time NFL prospects, but LSU’s talent is a bit more seasoned. Mel Kiper, Jr. lists the top 5 seniors from around the nation at each position, as well as the top 5 juniors at each position. Both the Tigers and the Buckeyes have 8 players on the lists. But the year-to-year breakdown is interesting. LSU has 5 seniors and 3 juniors, while all 8 Ohio State players listed are juniors.
2. After starting the season with a non-lined rout of Youngstown State, Ohio State has had the following pointspread pattern. LWW LWW LWW LW. Of course, the SAT question type pattern doesn’t necessarily follow, but it is interesting.
3. If you call LSU’s game at Alabama and their SEC Championship Game win over Tennessee pushes, LSU is 1-7-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. The one universal pointspread cover they’ve had since their September 15th shutout win over MTSU was a blowout non-conference win over Louisiana Tech. Shoppers could have had LSU at -6.5 in the aforementioned Bama and Tennessee games that they won by 7. On the other hand, LSU backers betting at the wrong time in both of those games also could have lost, as I had the Vols +7.5 in LSU’s 7-point win.
4. When the Buckeyes finished their season two weeks before the Florida did last year, many felt the extra time off made them rusty. The same situation exists here. So far this bowl season, four Big Ten teams with seasons that ended on November 17th faced teams that played on December 1st, with Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois going 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin were all within four points of the spread in their games while the Illini got slaughtered.
5. Ohio State linebacker (and captain) James Laurinaitis is the son of former wrestler “Road Warrior Animal”. His dad admits to steroid use but claims to have stopped when the WWE began testing.
6. The talk that the Buckeyes are a closer, more focused team than the club that got bludgeoned by Florida last year seems pretty legit, as does the suggestion that last year’s club was overly concerned with agents and draft positioning.
7. LSU lost a lot of key performers to injury during the year and are as healthy as they’ve been since the South Carolina game. Glenn Dorsey’s knee appears to be downright sprightly. His knee was injured on an illegal cut block in that game, which led Tommy Tuberville and the linemen involved to apologize.
8. LSU is the second most penalized team in all of Division 1-A. Last year’s championship game winner, Florida, was also the second most penalized team in college football.
9. The crowd will not be nearly as one-sided as it was in the Oklahoma-LSU BCS title game in this building in January, 2004. Ohio State has as extensive a national following as anyone, they travel big, and their fans know how to get tickets. That being said, there is certainly still a home field edge for the Tigers here.
10. According to a columnist in the Akron Beacon Journal, LSU’s status as 4-point favorite is not the studied judgment of the global sports betting marketplace, but has somehow been arranged by Jim Tressel.

Enjoy the game Monday night.

Some news, notes, links, and observations on the NFL playoffs this weekend.

• The Seahawks are 7-1 straight up, 6-1-1 against the spread on their strong home field, but after beating Tampa in their opener Seattle didn’t have a home game against a team that finished with a winning record. Five of their Qwest Field opponents will draft in the Top Ten in April.
• The Redskins gained 367 yards or less in each of their final five games. Joe Gibbs isn’t the only coach deserving credit, as Gregg Williams’ defense has been outstanding down the stretch, as apparently Williams’ new approach this year has paid off.
• The Jaguars didn’t play starters Sunday, but in each of the five games before that gained between 411 yards and 437 yards.
• The Steelers defense is getting some flack right now, but Pittsburgh’s D was not only the #1 ranked defense in raw yardage, but in the more important category of yards per play their 4.6 yards allowed per snap was unsurpassed. They also allowed fewer first downs per game than anyone else.
• Much has been made of the Chargers quarterbacking not being up to snuff, but their defense and special teams have made up for it with 8 non-offensive touchdowns.
• Vince Young and Albert Haynesworth both look ready to play for the Titans, assuming that Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow want Young to start.
• According to the Newark Star Ledger’s Steve Politi’s pro-Ronde takedown of Tiki Barber, Tiki is planning to be on the Bucs sideline in a Giants hat while rooting for both the Giants and his brother. Huh? Extra points to Politi for his Brady Bunch references.
• With a bye week, injury, and rest, Jeff Garcia has thrown only 69 passes in the last eight weeks. Garcia turns 38 next month.

Good luck with the Wild Card games this weekend.

On Steve Czaban’s “First Team on Fox” show this morning on Fox Sports Radio, I corrected Czabe’s suggestion (also asserted at his terrific web site Czabe.com) that the Wild Card round historically favored the favorites by a substantial margin. But I was overzealous in my correction, as Wild Card Weekend doesn’t favor underdogs as I suggested.

Since the Wild Card round was introduced in 1990, favorites are exactly 50% to the pointspread, going 32-32 with 4 pushes. Underdogs have done well recently, going 12-8 to the number in the last five years, but the long term favors neither the chalk player nor the dog lover during the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

I haven’t offered more than a passing glance at a Racing Form past performance since June, so thanks to you guys who keep me updated with interesting horse notes like the following:

More than five years after the 2002 Breeder’s Cup pick six results was won in illicit fashion by past-posting the early legs of the sequence, the integrity of the parimutuel wagering system still leaves much to be desired. At a racing conference one gentlemen showed tangible proof that he was able to wager from Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky on a race at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans more than 45 seconds after the race had started.

Check out the Race 5, 6, 7 Pick 3 on New Year’s Day at Aqueduct. $57,000 pool and only $2 had the winning combination. After scratches (sloppy track) there were only 8, 7, and 8 horses in the three fields, so you would think at least a couple of people would have hit it wheeling with one of the winning longshots, but only a pair of $1 tickets split the entire pool.

Given a forum in The New York Times, the inimitable Steve Crist blasts the corrupt and wasteful OTB system in New York.

That’s it. Your next horse racing update will be some time in the next 365 days or so.