If you’ve enjoyed our content here this fall, you don’t want to miss the bowl issue of our newsletter, The Maximum Profit Football Weekly. The bowl issue of The Max contains nearly 16,000 words of analysis, with all 32 bowl games previewed with a strong pointspread opinion on most of them. There are also more than a dozen sides isolated on our system page. Our bowl issue is $19 and this week only, you get a complimentary copy of my book Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace as a free bonus. You must order by phone for this special offer. Call 1-770-649-1078 and the bowl Max will be emailed to you while you’re still on the phone. If you like what we do here you’ll love The Max bowl issue and my book. Call 1-770-649-1078 for the Bowl Max/Book special.

It’s the Top 25 before Christmas, and all through the house, there was a particular focus on the minor bowls, so get busy with your mouse.

1. One of the reasons that Navy was able to retain the vast majority of their coaching staff (8 of 12 staffers staying in Annapolis despite the departure of Paul Johnson) is a matter of economics. Navy assistant coaches and their family get free accommodations at the Academy. Associating with a place like the Naval Academy is certainly a special opportunity, and when it makes financial sense as well….
2. The New Orleans Bowl between Memphis and Florida Atlantic has to be the first bowl with a pair of defenses that allow 32+ points and 415+ yards per game, doesn’t it?
3. And is there anyone outside of Boca or Memphis that will be watching the New Orleans Bowl who doesn’t have money on it?
4. If anyone deserves to have his team play hard for him it is Jeff Bower, forced out as Southern Miss coach, and Southern Miss seems pretty motivated in the PapaJohn’s Bowl.
5. And the Golden Eagles better be motivated, as they’re taking on a team that has a better offense, better defense, and earned those numbers against better competition.
6. I realize that New Mexico Coach Rocky Long is disappointed that Rodney Ferguson is academically ineligible for the New Mexico Bowl, but does the coach really have to throw him under the bus by dismissively saying “he’s not a leader for us”? The junior had 544 carries for 20 TD’s in the past two seasons, with over 1000 yards each year. Feguson has taken a lot of hits for the Lobos. Long’s displeasure seems like something that could have been kept in-house.
7. Just getting healthy again, UCLA quarterback Ben Olson re-injured his knee in practice. The Bruin quarterback situation is once again up in the air.
8. UCLA beat BYU early in the season 27-17 despite being outgained 435-236. They have gone from an 8.5-point favorite at home earlier this season to a 5.5-underdog to the same opponent at a neutral site.
9. With Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, the game created to provide Hawaii a place to play with they’re bowl eligible will likely have the smallest crowd in bowl history when ECU and Boise meet up on Sunday night.
10. Boise is taking a big step down the bowl ladder from last year’s Fiesta Bowl, but ECU was outgained by 5 of the 6 bowl clubs they faced, though they went 3-3 against those teams.
11. In addition to BYU/UCLA the other rematch this bowl season is Purdue/Central Michigan. Purdue won the first matchup 45-22 on yardage of 583-465. CMU was 0-3 against the three BCS conference teams it played, failing to cover all three pointspreads by a combined 85 points.
12. Butch Jones, the first year Central Michigan head coach, came to Mount Pleasant from West Virginia and is rumored to be in the mix for the WVU job. If something pops with that it could only serve as a distraction. Of course Purdue had much higher aspirations than Detroit when they were 7-2, and may be disinterested to be sent here after three consecutive losses to close the season.
13. The Holiday Bowl is historically the most entertaining and well-played of all the minor bowls and Texas/Arizona State could have been a BCS matchup had the Longhorns not lost to A&M in their finale. Arizona State wanted a Fiesta Bowl bid but their hometown committee decided to fill hotel rooms instead.
14. Sun Devils and Longhorns may both have trouble passing the ball. Arizona State allowed their quarterback to be sacked 51 times this season but on the other side of the ball allowed only 6.1 yards per pass attempt despite playing in the pass happy Pac Ten.
15. Boston College beat Clemson late in the season to win their division of the ACC, so why is BC in the Champs Sports Bowl on December 28? The Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl in Atlanta saw that BC brought only 3,500 fans to Jacksonville for the ACC title game and couldn’t extend an invitation to Clemson fast enough.
16. While people correctly focus on Matt Ryan, BC’s run defense was terrific, allowing only 68 yards per game on 2.3 yards per rush. But BC doesn’t run well, and take on a well-coached Michigan State team that is pretty good at everything, though outstanding at nothing.
17. Considering they were seen as a possible BCS gate-crasher, TCU can’t be thrilled to end up in the Texas Bowl in Houston. But seeing that they were 5-5 at one point, maybe the Frogs are happy to be anywhere. Houston coach Art Briles is now full time at Baylor, and many of his assistants have one foot out the door to Waco.
18. Bowl teams playing in their home state are a long-term positive pointspread proposition, but that covers both TCU and Houston. The cross-town Cougars figure to have more fans here but TCU is less than four hours away.
19. The availability of Beaver RB Yvenson Bernard is an enormous issue in the Oregon State/Maryland Emerald Bowl. So far Bernard is practicing lightly and without pain. Maryland has suffered a storm of injuries this season but are getting healthier.
20. We’ll take a look at the games of December 29th and later next week, but there’s plenty of other stuff going on. Did you notice that when Drake beat Iowa in Iowa City for the first time in 40 years, that Iowa didn’t shoot a single free throw? Other than the paycheck, Todd Lickliter really must wish he was back coaching at Butler right now.
21. Our basketball is off to a blazing start again this year, and we’re hitting better than 60% in both college hoops and the NBA. Keep up with daily free selections on our Hotline voice mail broadcast at 1-770-618-8700. Make sure you pick up that daily selection with full analysis as a part of your daily handicapping routine.
22. Another similar effort is available to you as handicappers Matty Baiungo and Erik Scheponik share a well-done and successful free selection phone. Call this 24-hour voice mail broadcast at 1-404-250-7555 for solid winning information.
23. Favorites had been rolling in the NFL for a month until we saw a dead even 8-8 split last weekend.
24. Value handicappers need to take a hard look at the Bengals this weekend. Laying 7.5 in Cleveland earlier this season, Cincy is now getting 2 at home from the Browns. Factor in the home field advantage and we’re looking at a swing of more than two touchdowns in the pointspread.
25. Thanks for reading this far, and thanks for reading us this season. Have a wonderful Christmas. We’ll be back with a look at the major bowls next week.

Here’s another 25 items of interest to those who don’t mind placing a wager or two on the games they enjoy.

1. First downs aren’t the most valuable stat in football, but they can tell you a lot about a team’s ability to sustain offense. In an average performance an NFL team will get 18 or 19 first downs in a game. A look at some first down numbers show some abominable offensive performances last weekend. Five NFL teams had 11 first downs or less. The Vikings had 11 yet somehow managed to beat the Niners. The Rams, Raiders, and Panthers had 10 each in losing by a combined 94-23. The Chiefs were held to a putrid 7 first downs in their 41-7 shellacking at the hands of the Broncos.
2. So what did these clubs have in common? They were all on the road. But more importantly, their starting quarterbacks were Tarvaris Jackson, Brock Berlin, Josh McCown, Vinny Testaverde, and Brodie Croyle. There is simply a dearth of quality quarterbacks in the NFL.
3. The fact that the pass-first quarterback is not exactly the rage in college football isn’t going to do anything to feed better young quarterbacks into the league.
4. In a not-unrelated note, favorites went 12-4 in the NFL last weekend.
5. For a while it looked like Jack Pardee was going to get hired to replace Art Briles (moved on to Baylor) at Houston. And they were serious. Briles will turn 72 during spring practice.
6. Neither of the two “finalists” in the article on Pardee was hired. Instead the Cougar job goes to Oklahoma co-offensive coordinator Kevin Sumlin, who becomes the eighth minority coach in Division 1-A football.
7. While still calling them Breeders’ Cup races, Friday appears to becoming the Cup’s version of the Busch Series. Was there that big of a need for a race for two-year old turf fillies? A mile-and-a-half dirt marathon? Not that I mind having more races to bet on, but there’s some dilution of the title “Breeders’ Cup Champion”, isn’t there?
8. Clemens? Of course. Tejada? Obviously. But I wouldn’t have taken 200-1 odds that Hal Morris would have been on that list. Hal Morris had 76 home runs in 3,998 career at bats. It would be a challenge to find a first baseman who played 10+ years in the majors with lower power numbers than Hal Morris. I guess there’s juicing and then there’s juicing correctly.
9. Still no test for HGH in MLB.
10. It is easy to forget exactly how quiet “exam week” is in college basketball. Including the “added” board, there are only 18 total bettable games from Monday through Friday in all of college hoops.
11. My Strategic Sports Publishing basketball selection service is off to another great start this season. We’re hitting over 60% in both college (65.7%) and pro (61.5%) hoops. Since the start of last season in the Sports Monitor’s regular season college basketball rankings we’ve notched a 113-64 (64.5%) mark. For information on this service, call 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details.
12. The vast majority of our college hoops plays are sides, but you may have noticed that college totals are going up later and later, at lower and lower limits, and are moving quicker and quicker?
13. The International Olympic Committee considers illegal gambling to be a significant threat and is eager to work with legal wagering firms in an effort to track the action on Olympic sports. The IOC understands that the paper trail that legal, licensed wagering provides is essential.
14. Yet here in the US, street bookies are once again flourishing due to Bill Frist’s ill-conceived legislation from last fall.
15. Of course offshore and online sports books really aren’t doing that badly, and it isn’t nearly as difficult to withdraw and collect as the media suggests.
16. We’ve been telling you for months now how important the Antigua vs. US case is in front of the World Trade Organization. It looks like a decision may be imminent in the online gambling dispute.
17. Southern Miss hired Larry Fedora as their new head coach. A tip of the hat to Fedora, the former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator.
18. Sorry, I couldn’t resist. I actually stole that line from Marc Lawrence, who used it while I was guesting on his radio show.
19. The “calling of the hogs” was the most entertaining part of the Bobby Petrino press conference, but the lack of challenging questions from the “reporters” in Arkansas was the most striking. Tony Barnhart has a few that could have been asked had the sports media in Fayeteville not been so compliant.
20. Petrino’s old boss, Tom Jurich, the AD at Louisville, says that his former coach is now “five for five”, actively looking for a new job each of the past five seasons. That’s just one of the nuggets in Pat Forde’s terrific takedown of Petrino.
21. There are some bad actors on the Falcons, but Warrick Dunn and Joey Harrington, good soldiers throughout a difficult year, offer some illuminating examples of Petrino as a guy who was completely overmatched.
22. Petrino overshadowed a couple of other coaching moves in the SEC this week. A couple of years ago Al Borges was the toast of the town in Auburn, Alabama. But the offensive coordinator was let go by Tommy Tuberville this week.
23. After not capturing the Southern Miss job, Tyrone Nix becomes the defensive coordinator at Ole’ Miss for Houston Nutt. It is a lateral move in title, but a $100,000 raise for Nix. Steve Spurrier might not mind Nix’s departure after the injury-fueled late season collapse by his defense.
24. Handicappers Matty Baiungo and Erik Scheponik share a well-done and successful free selection phone. Call this 24-hour voice mail broadcast at 1-404-250-7555 for solid winning information. I’m a contributor on a similar effort at 1-770-618-8700.
25. Back next week with a bowl-heavy effort. Have a great weekend.

As we head into the weekend, here are 25 more observations from the sports and wagering worlds.

1. Sorry, but no critiques of the BCS here. Rather, the effort will be to give you some stuff you didn’t already know rather than just shoot fish in a barrel.
2. Though Peter King of Sports Illustrated apparently disagrees. Yes, he really wrote, “The BCS worked out. Ohio State-LSU is the game I want to see for all the marbles.” King frequently uncovers worthwhile NFL tidbits, but his college football thoughts couldn’t be any more laughable.
3. It is difficult not to root for the service academies so it is tough to see Paul Johnson leaving Navy.
4. But if he had to leave I’m glad he’s coming here to Atlanta to coach Georgia Tech, I’m looking forward to studying him up close. It will be fascinating to see how he implements an offense that is more pass-oriented than his Navy attack, which would often only feature 4 or 5 passes per game. Johnson is a sharp cookie and the ACC is ripe for the taking, with a lot of programs in real down cycles right now.
5. Some of the decision makers at Georgia Tech wanted to give the job to Will Muschamp, Auburn’s defensive coordinator. He’s a sharp young coach but the concern was that the Tech fan base wouldn’t accept someone who played and coached at Georgia. Worth noting that Vince Dooley was an Auburn man, while Bo Schembechler was an assistant coach at Ohio State for five years before coaching at Michigan (with Miami-Ohio in between.)
6. Muschamp may be Arkansas bound. The Hogs have been turned down by their first four choices to replace Houston Nutt, and Nutt had turned them down, as well, refusing a two-year extension.
7. How does Iowa State lose by 35 to Drake? Everyone got a lot of laughs at the Larry Eustachy Party Pix a few years back, but Eustachy’s fall devastated that basketball program, as he had the Cyclones cooking for a few years.
8. Basketball has extraordinary changes of fortune within individual games. Providence notched a 98-89 win over Boston College last weekend in which they led 62-38, allowed BC to come back with a 38-8 run, and then Providence closed the game through the overtime on a 28-13 tear.
9. The emotion of that comeback took a toll on PC, as the Friars were wiped out by Rhode Island on Tuesday night then lost as a favorite to South Carolina on Thursday.
10. Gauging a team’s emotion is always critical down the stretch in the NFL season, and this season more than ever, as the leaders of all eight divisions are up two games or more.
11. Poker pro Chip Reese, who died this week at the relatively young age of 56, was a phenomenal sports bettor as well. Sports betting is a leak for a lot of “poker pros” but it was a consistent source of income for Reese.
12. Swing..and a miss. For various reasons I liked the Suns/Raptors game under the total on Wednesday night. I lost by a mere half-a-hundred as the Suns were red-hot and uptempo in a 136-123 win.
13. Despite that humiliating loss, basketball is going really well again this year. The NBA is 60% and college is well over 60%, for a combined mark of 64%+. For rates and details on our basketball selection service call 1-770-649-1078.
14. In 84 attempts Dolphin rookie John Beck’s longest completion has been 22 yards. Beck has started three games and Miami has yet to score an offensive touchdown behind the BYU rookie.
15. Miami’s opponent this week, the Bills, haven’t exactly been tearing it up offensively themselves, with an abject refusal to throw the ball downfield. With the forecast reading “snow to ice” on Sunday in Orchard Park, is this an automatic under, or is it the kind of “obvious” play that doesn’t work?
16. Have you ever seen a team show up their coaches like Baltimore did following the Rex Ryan timeout from the sideline on Monday night? As Baltimore Sun columnist Mike Preston opines, this team “constantly complains like a bunch of babies.”
17. I’ve gotten some “what are these betting exchanges you write about?” feedback. A serviceable explanation is offered by the BBC.
18. And while I haven’t been following the race-fixing case over there at all, horse owner Miles Rodgers looks to be quite the action junkie.
19. Remember the “kid on Christmas morning” glee emanating from the nation’s capital when Joe Gibbs was hired. Seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it?
20. I don’t spend a lot of time analyzing rushing statistics in the NFL, and here’s an example why. The two best NFL teams based on net yards per rush differential are the Vikings (run for 5.6, give up 3.0, for a net differential of +2.6) and the Ravens (run for 4.0, give up 2.9, for a differential of nearly +1.2). The two best teams on the line of scrimmage are both struggling.
21. Conversely, the top four teams in net yards per pass differential are the Cowboys (pass for 8.5, give up 5.9, for +2.6), the Steelers (+2.3), the Patriots (+2.1), and the Colts (+1.9). Though we’re dealing with statistics in retrospect, this should tell us something, shouldn’t it?
22. The Steelers passing numbers are impressive, particularly their pass D (4.8 yards per attempt is best in the league), but the Men of Steel have played the easiest schedule in the league according to several power ratings, including Sagarin’s.
23. Handicappers Matty Baiungo and Erik Scheponik share a well-done and successful free selection phone. Call this 24-hour voice mail broadcast at 1-404-250-7555 for solid winning information. I’m a contributor on a similar effort at 1-770-618-8700.
24. Since the average sports fan has so little interest in horse racing, more than ever before the pro bettors are competing against each other, making it hard to make the kind of money that they used to. Not addressed in this article is how these big guns wouldn’t even be playing if it weren’t for rebates, which are more hush-hush than ever before.
25. I’m off to coach the Arizona Wildcats for the rest of the hoops season. Have a great weekend.

Hold onto your hat (or grab the No-Doz). Here are 25 more observations on everything in the orbit of the sports wagering world.

1. I never would have bet on the Texans last week had I known that their offensive coordinator was more interested in the Texas A&M job than he was in attacking the Cleveland Browns defense.
2. And where has a head coach imported from the NFL worked in college football? Pitt? Syracuse? Notre Dame? Nebraska? There’s a big difference in coaching college kids and NFL men, and if you haven’t experienced campus in the last five years things have changed in an awful lot of ways.
3. Mike Price’s potential return to Washington State makes an awful lot of sense.
4. Tyrone Nix’s return to Southern Miss makes an awful lot of sense.
5. But Nix should be careful. 14 straight winning seasons got Jeff Bower shoved out the door. Bower, who reportedly turned down opportunities over the years for big-time ACC and SEC jobs to be loyal to Southern Miss, deserved much, much better.
6. Slick Rick Neuheisel is being pushed for the Georgia Tech job by Brian Billick. Tech is sure to jump at the chance to hire a guy who left a trail of probation and lawsuits everywhere he’s been, right? Someone tell Billick that Tech’s looking for fiery, not sleazy.
7. The Mark Mangino success story is remarkable. The Kansas coach worked the most mundane jobs imaginable while trying to break into coaching. He was 1-9 in his lone year as a high school coach in Pennsylvania. When those folks ran him out of town Mangino, at age 35, moved his wife and three kids to take a grad assistant job at Kansas State paying less than $1,000 a month. Who would be crazy enough to do that?
8. But the best nugget may be the fact that the hefty (I’m being kind with the language here) Mangino used to whip up on Bobby Stoops in racquetball, though that has “fool the reporter” written all over it.
9. Only three teams in college football have outgained every opponent, and they all play on Saturday. But that yardage dominance hasn’t translated into pointspread success for BYU, Hawaii, and West Virginia. BYU is 5-5 to the number with a1-AA opponent leading to an unlined game. Hawaii played a pair of lower division teams, and are 4-5 spreadwise in the rest. West Virginia is 6-4-1 to the spread when you call Marshall a push and Cincy a loss. 15-14-1 against the spread for three teams that are a combined 31-2 straight up show once again that the pointspread can be a great equalizer.
10. Of course it isn’t always a great equalizer. The Patriots (9-2 ATS) visit the Ravens (1-10 to the number) Saturday.
11. New England continues to break new barriers in the pointspread world. They’re the largest ever non-replacement road favorite this week.
12. Can you imagine the volume of play that flew in on the under, quarters under, first half under, and team totals under when the condition of the field in Pittsburgh became apparent on ESPN during the delay right before game time? My personal favorite was an alternate total of under 30.5 at +240.
13. What time do you think the FieldTurf salesman was at Heinz Field on Tuesday morning?
14. Mike Tomlin showed a lot of stubbornness Monday night. He was determined to pound the ball heading into the game and didn’t let the fact that his offensive linemen couldn’t get any traction or the fact that Big Ben was on his way to an 18 for 21 night get in the way of his plan. Though completing passes at will, the Steelers ran 29 times despite the lack of success on the ground.
15. Roethlisberger should be bigger than this. Speaking of his former coordinator, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, Roethlisberger says, “so many coordinators in this league have such big egos. They don’t want to listen to their players.” C’mon Ben, you won a Super Bowl with the guy. Why so petty?
16. After the Celtics beat up on the Heat on Friday night, Miami’s professional football and basketball teams dropped to a combined 4-22. Their counterparts in Massachusetts improved to a combined 24-2.
17. The depth of the freshman class in college basketball is stunning. And it goes beyond the previously famous Mayos, Gordons, Beasleys, Loves, and Roses. Coaches on good teams and bad at the major, mid-major, and low-major levels are all raving about their own kids and their opponents as well. There are simply dozens of freshmen who are stepping into college basketball with amazing readiness.
18. Another sign of the growing maturity of college hoops players is the fact that it has been a few years since the first game back from an Alaska or Hawaii tournament was an automatic bet-against. Rather than taking a week to recover from, these jaunts are proving to be just another road trip for the modern college hoopsters.
19. As sleazy as so many of the overbearing AAU programs are, you have to admit that they’re preparing these kids for the rigors of big-time college basketball.
20. UMass 107 Syracuse 100 in regulation? The last time Syracuse scored 100 points in a game and lost was in 1968, when Niagara’s Calvin Murphy hung 68 points on them.
21. We won our only game in hoops on Friday night and are hitting better than 60% on the season. This is after at 90-52 (63%+) college basketball record for my Strategic Sports Publishing selection service last season. Call me at 1-770-649-1078 for details. I’m also pinch hitting for Dave Fobare on the hotline, a free broadcast at 1-770-618-8700. Dave will return when his health does.
22. Steve Crist, formerly the racing writer for the New York Times, is not pleased with his former employer for editorializing that betting the horses is akin to squandering one’s life.
23. Personality shown by an ESPN personality is rarely tolerated, so the reaction from Bristol had to be pretty stiff on this one. On a recent Friday night telecast, Sean McDonough and Chris Spielman mentioned that their sideline reporter Rob Stone was taking over ESPN’s bowling telecasts. They proceeded to trash the sport and everything about it. You have to think that the folks at the Worldwide Leader weren’t thrilled. Sharp catch by Pete Dougherty of the Albany Times-Union. Apparently bowling fans are up in arms over Stone, who admits to very little bowling knowledge. Stone takes over for the always-solid Dave Ryan, who is now doing a lot more college football sideline work and basketball play-by-play.
24. Want to bone up on your international bureaucracy, particularly the background on why the WTO has some sway over US internet gambling policy? Well here you go.
25. Thanks for reading this far. Good luck this weekend. And be careful.