Let’s dig deep statistically in the ACC, SEC, and all-important Big 12 Championship Games.

ACC: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

Previous Meeting: Boston College 14-10 on yardage of 317-265 on October 25. The first 57 minutes saw Tech up 10-0 with a yardage edge of nearly 100 yards. BC did nothing all night on a rainy Thursday night in Blacksburg until the final three minutes where they famously scored two TD’s with an onside kick recovery in between. Turnovers were 2-2 but Virginia Tech dropped three interceptions and BC recovered all three of their own fumbles. Sean Glennon was the only QB for Virginia Tech that night, while the insertion of Taylor has sparked the offense. Hokies are also healthier defensively. BC’s passing attack figures to be a lot less sloppy in dry conditions.

Mutual Opponents: Against Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Miami FL, Virginia Tech was 4-0 straight up and 4-0 to the spread, with an average win being 38-15 on yardage of 363-283. Against those same opponents, Boston College was 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread, with an average score 22-17 on yardage of 460-318.

SEC: Tennessee vs. LSU

Previous Meeting: None this year

Mutual Opponents: Both teams played Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Tennessee was 4-2 both straight up and against the spread against that group, with an average score being a 30-35 loss with a yardage deficit of 374-459. As the results suggest, a couple of close wins and a couple of blowout losses n that group. LSU was also 4-2 but 1-4-1 against the spread against mutual opponents. Average score was 38-28 on yardage of 398-272. Obviously the multiple overtime games by both of these teams against Kentucky, as well as LSU’s loss to Arkansas, make the scoring averages screwy here.

Big 12: Missouri vs. Oklahoma

Previous Meeting: On October 13th OU notched a 41-31 win over Mizzou despite being outgained 418-384. OU enjoyed a 4-2 turnover edge in the game and trailed 24-23 before scoring three straight TD’s in the fourth quarter.

Mutual Opponents: Both played Colorado, Iowa State, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. OU was 2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread. Average score was 27-20 with a narrow yardage edge of 356-351. Missouri was 4-0 against those opponents, 2-2 against the spread. Their average win was 44-18 on yardage of 485-338.

We’ll have more on the weekend football card in our Top 25 column posted later on Friday.

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Here’s this week’s Top 25, covering the NFL, college football, the NFL, and the financial speculation that accompanies the games.

1. In handicapping the Alabama/Auburn game, you’ve got to make a decision on the mental state of Alabama’s players, and on the statements Nick Saban made this week that have since been overshadowed by his September 11th/Pearl Harbor kerfuffle. Is Nick Saban’s ranting and raving about his players’ lack of commitment going to spur them on to a peak performance? Or has the tuneout factor already contributed to the three-game losing streak, including Saturday’s Louisiana-Monroe disaster?
2. Alabama and Georgia compete in recruiting quite a bit. If you’re a senior in high school you can spend the next four or five years playing where the assistants feel compelled to advise players to let the verbal attacks of the head coach go “in one ear and out the other.” On the other hand, you could play for a coach who lets you run on the field after TD’s and decide what color uniform you want to wear. Which would you choose?
3. And where was Mark Richt’s sudden motivational wizardry when I bet on his Bulldogs at Tennessee a few weeks ago?
4. When Oregon lost dual-threat QB Dennis Dixon, the offense all but ground to a halt behind big, immobile backup Brady Leaf. It is a very similar situation to earlier in the year, when Utah’s dual threat Brian Johnson got hurt and the Utes struggled behind big, immobile backup Tommy Grady. I understand that offensive systems change while players are in the program, but how are these teams stuck with backup quarterbacks incapable of running the offense?
5. Poor Oregon. Before Dixon’s injury the Ducks looked unstoppable, going for 186 yards on their first 18 plays from scrimmage. The rest of the game saw 277 yards on 79 plays. That’s 10.3 yards per play before Dixon’s injury, 3.5 yards per play afterwards.
6. Yes, the Ducks had 97 snaps, with 54 passes and 43 runs. How about those clock rules?
7. You knew in August that Kansas vs. Missouri was going to be the game of the year, didn’t you?
8. Kansas didn’t “sell” their home game to have it at Arrowhead, it just happens to be the first year of an effort to make Kansas City the host of this rivalry every year. While the Oklahoma/Texas, Georgia/Florida environments are a lot of fun, I’m sure the Jayhawks would love to have this game in Lawrence. There will be more Kansas fans at the game than Mizzou fans, as this was part of the Kansas season ticket package, but not Missouri’s.
9. A lot of wise guy money has gone down in flames trying to beat both Kansas (easy schedule) and Missouri (annual November collapse), as the expected corrections never materialized.
10. Tennessee is playing for the SEC East title, and has beaten Kentucky 22 straight times, the longest series streak in the nation, yet the Volunteers are the slight underdog on the road, though favored by less than the home field advantage.
11. If Kentucky wins, the longest losing streak in a series will belong to…..Kentucky. The Wildcats have lost to Florida 21 consecutive times. As you know, Navy’s win over Notre Dame broke the previous longest streak.
12. If you played with Mark Read of what was then called Darwin All Sports back in the mid-to-late 90’s, you won’t be surprised to hear that he’s still complaining about the Australian government’s regulation of bookmakers.
13. Things continue to heat up in the US government’s battle with the World Trade Organization over internet gambling.
14. Five NFL games are lined in the double digits this week, and it won’t take a lot of betting action to make it six, with the Chargers favored by 9 over the punchless Ravens.
15. The big spreads seem warranted, as it just happens to be a week where the best are meeting the worst, but the scoring margins are outside historical norms as well. In the past, usually around 39% of NFL games were decided by 6 or less, this year fewer than 32% of games have a final margin of less than a touchdown.
16. Eli Manning takes a lot of heat in the media cauldron of the Big Apple, but he made just about every right decision on Sunday. In the win over the Lions he hit seven different receivers in the first 21 minutes of the game. That’s Bradyesque.
17. I think the professional gamblers who have been fading the Patriots on a weekly basis are probably finally ready to get off a sinking ship. This may be a team that simply defies all situational handicapping logic. Without the wise guys keeping things in check (remember the huge line move on the Redskins three games ago?) the Patriots lines may really get into the stratosphere…at which point the pro gamblers will say, “you know….”
18. Ron Jaworski’s commentaries on poor quarterback scouting, and his complaints about “former defensive linemen” evaluating quarterbacks were interesting. And unless Alex Smith gets coached up in a hurry he looks like a colossal bust.
19. Or you could just let other teams develop quarterbacks for you. When Brodie Croyle got the call for the Chiefs on Sunday it was the first time that Kansas City had started a quarterback that they drafted since Todd Blackledge’s last start for the Chiefs in 1987.
20. With Mario Williams starting to show that he does actually have some potential, and DeMeco Ryans one of the better young players in the league, the Texans D has some good young pieces. They could use some veteran leadership, but with every starter in his twenties, this looks like a unit with a future. Dunta Robinson’s absence (torn ACL, injured reserve) hurts, but there are some definite building blocks in Houston.
21. Stay classy, New Jersey.
22. After 13 years of trying, legislation allowing slot machines at racetracks in Maryland has passed, but must be approved by voters in a referendum. Surrounded by slot-fueled purses in Delaware, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, Maryland horse racing is fighting for its life.
23. And you horse guys won’t want to hear this, but a sport that requires subsidies to simply exist doesn’t have a bright future.
24. Bookies will tell you that guys who haven’t bet since last year come out of the woodwork at Thanksgiving. There’s just something about sitting around on Turkey Day that brings out even the most casual bettor, I guess.
25. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

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Just kidding about the famous part. Here’s this week’s look at 25 observations from the sports and wagering world.

1. A mob-connected bookmaking operation in the poker room at the Borgata in Atlantic City? Who ever would have thought that something as nefarious as sports gambling was going on in a casino poker room?
2. Hold all tickets! Betting was suspended in Wednesday night’s Cornell-Drake contest (game 741-742 in your schedule) when it was determined that Drake was hosting not the Cornell Big Red from the Ivy League, but the Cornell Rams or Mount Vernon, Iowa, a Division 3 school that is a member of the Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference.
3. These casino marketing types certainly know their target market. In the visitor’s locker room at the Chicago Bulls’ United Center, the walls are covered with advertisements for a Hammond, Indiana casino. The ads advertise favorable odds and the proximity of being a mere 20 minutes from Chicago. The post-Tim Donaghy NBA is fine with the arrangement, citing the need for teams to enhance their revenues.
4. We have a new measurement for the ineptitude of Notre Dame’s offense. The week before Notre Dame Navy’s putrid defense allowed 59 points and 581 yards in regulation to 1-AA Delaware. The week after Notre Dame Navy allowed 62 points and 635 yards in regulation to North Texas, the worst team in the worst conference in 1-A. Navy allowed Notre Dame scored 28 points on 309 yards in regulation against Navy.
5. That wild 76-62 Navy win over North Texas saw some stunning numbers. In the second quarter Navy outscored North Texas 35-28 on yardage of 400-220. Again, that was the second quarter only. The teams exchanged TD’s in the last minute of the first quarter, so in less than 16 minutes of play, they combined for 11 TD’s.
6. North Texas’s game this week at Arkansas State was moved from Saturday to Thursday to accommodate the opening of deer season in the Natural State. They’ve got their priorities in order in Jonesboro.
7. My colleague Dave Fobare had North Texas +16 in the Navy game. When the Mean Green were up 42-24 in the second quarter Dave probably didn’t think he would need a back door TD to get the cover, but he did.
8. Dave has a very good free selection phone broadcast that you might want to check out. It is a free call at 1-770-618-8700. Another good free 24-hour broadcast is handled by Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo at 1-404-250-7555. Neither one of those numbers exercises any telemarketing, caller ID, etc. They’re just valid information available 24-hours on a recorded message at no charge, so check them out.
9. The 10-0 Kansas Jayhawks will have to win out to have a chance at the BCS title game, but they look like the likely pointspread champions for 2007. KU has covered the spread in all nine lined games. There was no pointspread in their 62-0 win over 1-AA SE Louisiana.
10. The Big 12 is the home for another pointspread anomaly in Nebraska. The Huskers last six games have resulted in a 49-point cover (Saturday’s rampage over Kansas State), a 17-point failure, a 17 1/2 point cover, and non-covers of 30, 34 1/2, and 29. Have we mentioned lately that college teasers are a bookie’s dream?
11. Why are there pointless non-conference matchups like Florida Atlantic at Florida, Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama, and Western Michigan at Iowa on a weekend that should have hard-knocking conference affairs? You can thank the 12-game schedule for that. A lot of weight room enhancements, volleyball uniforms, and associate athletic directors are being paid for with those three games.
12. Have you noticed that the Pac Ten hasn’t played any such meaningless games lately? The Pac Ten took the 12th game and went to a full round-robin schedule, with every team playing everyone else. But this Denver Post reporter is incorrect when he writes that they’re the only BCS conference to play a round-robin schedule. The Big East does it too, but with only eight football-playing members that’s pretty easy to pull off.
13. The Big Ten mandates that all football at conference schools be finished by this weekend. That means that all 11 conference teams have played 12 straight games without a rest. That’s not a policy that takes the physical well-being of the players into account, but if it changes the real reason will not be concern for the players, but the opportunity to slide the Big Ten Network an extra weekend of programming.
14. And there’s a better chance that, as in last year’s BCS Championship game between Florida and Ohio State, Big Ten schools will be at a competitive disadvantage in bowls against sharper teams that had a shorter layoff. There are 13 regular season games being played the same weekend as the five conference championship games. So 36 teams, the majority of them heading to bowls, will be two weeks fresher than any Big Ten club they may face.
15. The 12-point spread presents a challenge in Thursday night’s Oregon Ducks-Arizona Wildcats game in Tucson. Arizona is once again falling into the horrid start, strong finish pattern they’ve exhibited under Mike Stoops. But Oregon certainly won’t be sitting on the ball if they’re up 7 or 10 late, as they need to be impressing the pollsters. BCS guru Brad Edwards reports “style points mean a ton to Oregon in the final three games.”
16. Have we mentioned that Herschel Walker wants to fight Steve Spurrier? Walker’s known for some bluster when it comes to the combat sports. Walker once claimed that he was invited to try out for the US Olympic Karate team until it was revealed that such a team didn’t exist.
17. Georgia Tech’s Chan Gailey, who interviewed for a pair of NFL head coaching jobs last winter, doesn’t appear on the lists of coaches fighting for their job. But his new athletic director is hardly offering staunch public support in the face of anti-Gailey sentiment among influential Yellow Jacket boosters.
18. Redskins fans clamoring for the season’s first touchdown pass to a Washington wide receiver were rewarded with three such occurences on Sunday. Jason Campbell connected for scores with 32-year old James Thrash twice and 37-year old Keenan McCardell once, but it wasn’t enough as the ’skins went down to a 33-25 defeat. McCardell and Thrash, huh? Washington, where washed up players go to fade away.
19. If you had the Redskins in a teaser avert your eyes, just move on to the next item. Down a point with 2:25 remaining, and with no timeouts in their quiver, Washington was smart enough to let the Eagles score on first and goal, and the Eagles were dumb enough to punch it in. Washington got the ball back down 8 with a chance, rather than watch the Eagles run out the clock. It didn’t work out for the Redskins, and it didn’t work out for those with Washington teasers, but it was the proper strategy. And that’s notable, because the Joe Gibbs Redskins are not always known for their proper strategy.
20. Three NFL teams entered last weekend with only a single pointspread cover on the season. Two of them covered in grand fashion, the Rams by 18 1/2 and the Broncos by 19. The pathetic Ravens remain the lone team in the league with one cover and one cover only.
21. The San Francisco 49ers are averaging a putrid 218 yards per game, putting them on a pace to have the worst NFL defense since the 211-yards per game Seattle Seahawks of 1992. Alex Smith is averaging a mind-boggling 4.7 yards per pass attempt and throwing his coach under the bus.
22. The Niners problems simply don’t end. They can’t pick up the tempo of their offense because many players have to have each play repeated twice in the huddle. Six first downs sounds pathetic, but that was their output both Monday night and a few weeks ago against the Ravens. This team can’t even get an off-day players’ outing right. Visit the Niners site and scroll down for details on the “shark hunt” that seemed like a good idea at the time and ended up with a bunch of cranky 300-pounders out on the chilly ocean for 6 hours longer than they had planned.
23. It’s ugly across the bay, as well. The Raiders have lost five straight, not quite keeping pace with the Niners seven losses in a row. But things have been worse.
24. We let you know over the weekend that it isn’t just Republicans looking to take away your right to wager on the internet. And further proving that it isn’t just Christian convervatives, folks in Israel are saying “gambling is a threat to the integrity of sport, and a threat to society”. Whatever.
25. There’s a ton of great college and NFL action this weekend, and my newsletter The Maximum Profit Football Weekly has it covered. The Max has 12 pointspread selections completely and thoroughly analyzed. To subscribe for only $74 through the Super Bowl, call 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for reading this far. Good luck this weekend. And be careful.

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A lot of sharp NFL bettors are struggling this season, and a look at the pointspread standings makes it pretty obvious why. A lot of professional bettors have historically done well backing teams that nobody else wants to back. They find the prices on ugly, underachieving teams to be inflated right at the time these dregs are ready to bust out.

But bad teams are not covering pointspreads this year. They are not bouncing back from embarrassing non-efforts with profitable performances for their backers, instead throwing in clunker after clunker.

Heading into Week 10 of the NFL season, a remarkable 9 of 32 teams in the NFL have covered two times or fewer this season. The Rams, Broncos, and Ravens are all an abominable 1-7 against the spread. The Dolphins, Redskins, Jets, Bengals, Niners, and Bears have all covered twice each, though several of those teams have a push or two as well.

There’s a good reason why bettors who have annually profited from my “Heinous Teams of the NFL” strategy and otherwise involve contrarian, due-theory thinking in their handicapping are struggling. The bad teams simply aren’t covering this season.

Will this trend turn around, or will bad teams be finishing with spread records like 2-14, 3-12-1 and 4-12? I’m looking for the turnaround, and I hope I’m right, as this is one of the big questions for the second half of the NFL campaign.

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I like the under 59 1/2 in tonight’s Florida/South Carolina game.  When he took the South Carolina job, Steve Spurrier knew that to make inroads in the SEC East, the games against Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida would be critical.  And in these big games, knowing that he has the lesser talent, he has consistently looked to slow down the pace of the game.  Two weeks ago in Knoxville his game plan had to go out the window after Tennessee used turnovers (needing very little offense) to get out to a quick 21-0 lead.  Yet even in overtime, that 27-24 loss stayed under the total.

The pattern of his desire to shorten these games is apparent.  In addition to that contest in Knoxville two weeks back, the other Gamecock games against Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida have seen total points of 32, 31, 52, 18, 55, 33, and 28 scored.  The Gamecocks were lit up by the Arkansas running attack for over 500 yards last week but match up much better here, as Florida lacks a power running game, which is something that can exploit the fast, but undersized Gamecock D.

Florida may have trouble passing effectively today, as South Carolina allows a miniscule 5.4 yards per pass attempt against Division 1A opponents.   Florida’s interior running is mostly done by QB Tim Tebow, but Tebow is still a bit banged up by his shoulder injury, although Vanderbilt did little to add to his physical problems with their no-show last week.

South Carolina’s defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix certainly has the ear of his defense after last week’s disaster, and his defensive backfield is healthier than expected, as it looks like the Gamecocks will have the services of a couple of defensive backs who were listed as questionable earlier in the week.

Since Blake Mitchell returned to Steve Spurrier’s good graces six quarters ago, his effectiveness has enabled USC to chew up clock with their offense. They notched 31 first downs at Tennessee and 29 first downs at Arkansas.  That kind of chain moving is a big part of the game plan here, which is to avoid a shootout with the Gators.

This number is very high after all the offense in the games that these teams participated in last week.  With the desire of South Carolina to limit the number of plays in this game, try to stay close, and win it late, under 59 1/2 seems like a solid play on a chilly night in Columbia.

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Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick is introducing legislation that turns his residents that place online wagers into felons. Two years in jail and a $25,000 fine are the suggested penalties not for running a gambling ring but simply for seeing an ad on ESPN for a poker room, putting $20 into an account, and wagering online.  The Boston Globe article doesn’t mention that these are felony charges but other outlets do.

Patrick is likely simply passing along with the wishes of the casino industry that is making a mad dash for their piece of the development of three casinos. The casino lobbyists probably wrote the legislation. But the fact that the Governor and his administration have no problem with criminalizing the actions of tens of thousands of their constituents is frightening to those who expect some thoughtfulness from their leaders.

The actions of Liberal Democrat Patrick illustrate once again that the effort to criminalize the actions of those who bet online instead of in a casino is bipartisan, and not limited to conservatives. Politicians see the potential for a flow of money and an increase in their power, and have no qualms about throwing you under the bus to get it.

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25 observations from the football and sports wagering worlds:

1. The biggest winners in the sports betting arena in the last year are local bookies. Online competition had damaged local bookmakers, even driven a lot of illegal bookies out of business, but the locals are thriving once again thanks to the actions of Congress last fall. Bill Frist’s last minute attachment to the Port Security Bill of legislation that interfered with the banking relationships of internet wagering companies re-opened the door to what was a dwindling business for most.
2. Those resurgent bookies and bettors who paid and collected at the legendary Fuzzy’s Place in Atlanta will have to find someplace new to meet up. Described by one mathematically-oriented patron as “Cheers + Moe’s Tavern + blues”, Fuzzy’s appears to be out of business, and it looks like the title of “Settle Up Capital of Atlanta” is up for grabs in the North Georgia sports betting community.
3. LSU partisans don’t approve of my opinion of Les Miles, but facts are facts. After Saturday’s miraculous push at Alabama, Miles is now 6-14-2 against the spread in SEC conference play. The Tigers haven’t covered a pointspread since their September 15th win over Middle Tennessee State. This is a team that simply doesn’t meet expectations on a weekly basis.
4. The ground game was prominent in college football last week. Led by Arkansas (541 yards rushing), East Carolina (491), Illinois (448), and Air Force (437), nine teams ran for over 300 yards in Saturday college football. The only thing that kept a winning pointspread result being available for all nine of them was Miami (314 yards rushing on 60 attempts) completing a single pass in the entire game in their home loss to NC State.
5. Of the 13 teams in the MAC, only Central Michigan (6-4) and Ball State (5-4) have winning records overall. The conference is a far cry from the days of Big Ben and Turner the Burner pulling off major upsets in non-conference play and competing at a high level within the loop.
6. Obviously a lot of things have to happen, but a 6-way tie for the SEC East crown with everyone having a 4-4 conference record is possible.
7. The pointspread can really be a great equalizer. Syracuse is 7-25 since Greg Robinson took over and has been outgained in 28 of those 32 games. Yet nobody has gotten rich riding the demise of the SU program, as the Orangemen are an almost respectable 15-17 against the pointspread in those 32 games.
8. Notre Dame is not taking on the kind of helpless Air Force team that marked the tail end of the end of the legendary Fisher DeBerry’s tenure (Flyboys were 6-15 their last 21 under DeBerry) on Saturday. Former NFL offensive coordinator Troy Calhoun has opened up the Falcon offense in a way that matches his talent, still running the ball 75% of the time but with a mix of formations and misdirection. The result is a 7-3 record and an impending bowl berth.
9. Notre Dame’s “tough schedule” excuse is far less persuasive than it was a month ago. Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Purdue, and UCLA are all among the teams that aren’t nearly as good as we thought we were back when they played the Irish. And it has likely been a while since the Irish lost to a team that gave up 59 point in regulation to a 1-AA team, but ND lost to Navy a week after the Middies 59-52 loss to Delaware.
10. UTEP stands for “U Take ‘Em Points” this fall, as a favorite has yet to cover in a Miner game. You know about the Texas comeback over Oklahoma State, but were you aware that Rice went on a 28-0 4th quarter rampage in their improbable win over UTEP Saturday?
11. The underdog in a UTEP game looks promising again Saturday. Although the Miners have given up over 500 yards in every conference game this season, they are laying five points on the road to a Tulane team that features the nation’s leading rusher in Matt Forte.
12. Cal hosts USC in a game far less important than it appeared to be a few weeks ago and Seattle Post-Intelligencer columnist Ted Miller makes an interesting case that both Jeff Tedford and Pete Carroll may be on to greener pastures next fall. Miller sees the momentum building in the Reggie Bush investigation being dangerous for Carroll while Tedford may simply get sick of the naked hippies in the trees interfering with the planned stadium and facilities expansion.
13. If Baylor coach Guy Morriss is really finished (which one reporter claims might not be a done deal), why was he even brought back this season? Last year the Bears looked primed for a big year (for them) but an avalanche of injuries killed them. This year with a new offense implemented by young players, it was clearly a year of building for the future. Now this year will have been a waste of time as a new coach (former Baylor great Mike Singletary?) is brought in to install new systems for another rebuilding year in 2008.
14. When South Florida fell behind Cincinatti 31-14 in the first quarter the flood of scoring included only two offensive touchdowns. USF scored on an interception return and a kickoff return while Cincy blocked a punt for a TD and returned an interception for a touchdown of their own. By the end of Cincinatti’s 38-33 win the Bearcats had an 8-2 turnover advantage thanks in large part to four interceptions and a fumble by South Florida’s Matt Grothe.
15. UConn’s athletic director accused ESPN of using the Huskies home game with Rutgers as a pawn for their own business purposes last week by placing the game on ESPNU, which doesn’t have widespread clearance in the Nutmeg State. Many feel this is a tool that has been used time and time again by “the Worldwide Leader” to exert public pressure on cable companies.
16. Speaking of which, wait until the November 29th game between the Cowboys and Packers, with their huge national fan bases, is played on the NFL Network and only on the NFL Network. Jerry Jones is the henchman for the NFL in the effort to strongarm cable companies by instructing consumers to cancel their cable service. No word from utility expert Jones on whether a fixed or variable rate is preferable with your natural gas provider.
17. Led by Adrian Peterson’s 296 and Clinton Portis’ 196, nine NFL running backs ran for 100 yards or more last Sunday.
18. The Tennessee Titans sacked the opposing quarterback seven times on Sunday against the Panthers, tying the franchise record set against the Texans on October 9, 2005. In both instances the opposing quarterback was David Carr. Albert “Contract Year” Haynesworth sacked Carr three times and after the game said “I appreciate David holding the ball so long to help us out.”
19. In their five touchdown “drives” in the first half Monday night, the Steelers never once started in their own territory. Pittsburgh notched only 291 yards of offense in the entire game, though they had little reason to try to exert much energy to move the ball in the second half.
20. Eight winners in last weekend’s NFL scored over 30 points, with overs going 9-5 on the weekend.
21. The post-Super Bowl hangover is not afflicting the Colts. Indy was the first team to cover a pointspread against New England in their loss to the Pats Sunday. The Colts are 6-2 to the number and have covered their last five. Their two non-covers were by a total of 5 points in early road games at the Titans and at the Texans.
22. Buffalo has also covered five straight games, despite horrendous seasonal statistics both offensively and defensively. But the worm is turning there, as the Bills had been outgained in every game but in the last two weeks have outgained the Jets and Bengals by a combined 827-553.
23. Most professional bettors I know are losing unimpressively in the NFL. Why are the wiseguys getting beaten up in pro football? Check out RealWorldSports.com this weekend for the answer.
24. Rick Gosselin is a tremendous NFL writer, but does he really want to credit the Saints’ defense for the team’s turnaround? Sure the D has slowed down their last four opponents, but those opponents offenses are ranked 13th (Seattle), 27th (Atlanta), 32nd (San Francisco), and 16th (Jacksonville with Quinn Gray at quarterback).
25. You can subscribe to our newsletter The Maximum Profit Football Weekly for only $79 throught the Super Bowl. This week’s Max, with 12 pointspread selections backed by thorough analysis, will be rushed to you via email when you call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe.

Thanks for reading this far. Good luck this weekend and be careful.

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The EU’s top trade official considers US policy on internet gambling to be discriminatory against European companies that offer those services and is letting Congress know about it. He’s adding to the international pressure (WTO case brought by Antigua) against the US.

While publicly traded European companies have been among the losers, the big winners domestically from last fall’s legislation are illegal bookmakers around the US. Many bookies that had left the business or were on their way out due to online competition have seen their customer base migrate back to them this fall. More on this later this morning in this week’s Top 25 column.

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Back with this week’s 25 observations on sports and the wagers that accompany them.

1. Betfair, the British firm with 90% of the betting exchange market, has “open books” agreements where major sports leagues, like UEFA (that’s soccer, my fellow Americans) can examine Betfair’s betting records on any sporting event. There’s no better paper trail for examining any potential game fixing or similar malfeasance.
2. The Brits are trying to get similar cooperation from books that have migrated to Gibraltar for the lighter regulatory touch and tax advantages.
3. If you’re looking to bet on the Friday night ESPN game between Nevada and New Mexico State you’ll want to consider whether having a bunch of players blamed in some quarters for contributing to a triple homicide at a party in Reno will be a distraction for Nevada. The girlfriend of a victim of the Reno murders said, “We are 23 and this was not a teen house party. The wrong people were showing up, like football and basketball players.”
4. Kansas has lost to Nebraska 37 of the last 38 times the schools have played, yet the Jayhawks opened as a 17-point favorite and have been bet up.
5. Nebraska had Texas on the ropes Saturday but the formerly fearsome Black Shirt defense permitted Jamaal Charles to run for 216 yards (at 16.6 yards per carry) in the fourth quarter alone. The Cornhuskers have now permitted their last three opponents to rush for 1,040 yards.
6. Navy is another team that has a chance to reverse some long-term dominance. Notre Dame has beaten the Midshipmen every year since 1963. Navy was led by Roger Staubach in that win. Staubach is now 65 years old.
7. The cable TV companies of America might want to put extra operators on staff when #1 Ohio State hosts Wisconsin this weekend, as the game is buried on the impossible-to-find Big 10 Network, which will doubtlessly confuse large portions of both teams’ significant national following.
8. Speaking of TV, how can the Pac Ten have such a horrendous TV package? The #4 vs. #5 Arizona State vs. Oregon game was scheduled to be seen only on Fox Sports Arizona and the Oregon Sports Network before the desperate conference worked something out with ESPN.
9. Rudy Carpenter tested his injured thumb in Wednesday’s Arizona State practice and “threw well” according to Dennis Erickson.
10. Matt Ryan of Boston College deserves a lot of credit for leading the Eagles to a comeback win at Virginia Tech after a horrid first three quarters, but the Hokies should have put the Eagles away by then. In addition to failing to recover any of BC’s three fumbles, Virginia Tech defenders dropped at least four potential interceptions in the wet conditions.
11. Where’s the Grits Blitz, Jerry Glanville? The Portland State coach saw his defense give up 687 yards in a 73-68 regulation loss to Weber State. Amazingly, Portland State led 7-3 after the first quarter before the teams combined for a 55-point second quarter.
12. Northern Illinois has been good year in and year out, but in their 70-21 loss to Toledo the Huskies allowed 812 total yards (382 rushing, 430 passing).
13. The Breeders’ Cup is usually a longshot festival, but even with the expanded menu of 10 Cup races only 4 winners went off at better than 9-2. None of that quartet were big hits, as the highest price winner in the two-day event was 12-1 in the betting.
14. Smart NFL bettors have a lot of respect for NFL home dogs and work hard to find profitable situations within that subset. That’s why a lot of wise guys were licking their wounds Monday following a rare 0-5 doughnut by home teams getting points in the pros.
15. Speaking of NFL home dogs, it is unique to see the Colts getting points in the RCA Dome. In their last 71 home games back to early in the 1999 season Indianapolis has been favored in 70 of them. The lone time they were an underdog they pulled off a 20-3 upset over the Cowboys getting +7 in 2002. The Colts had lost three of four heading into that one, which explains their underdog status.
16. Nobody asks their defensive backs to make more hits than the Colts do. You know about Bob Sanders and his run support, but cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are the top two solo tacklers on the Colts.
17. The approach is clearly working, however, as Indianapolis has a statistically superior defense to the Patriots in points per game, yards per play, yards per rush, and yards per pass attempt.
18. Part of that statistical advantage can be attributed to the Colts playing a number of games that were close into the fourth quarter, while it is almost impossible to expect the Patriots defense to maintain full focus when they’ve got every game won by halftime.
19. The Patriots had a 34-13 first down edge over the Redskins Sunday. That’s Top 5 team vs. Sun Belt cellar-dweller stuff there. Even with constant clock stoppages and frequent mismatches, it is rare for college teams to have 34 first downs.
20. With the #31 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense, the Buffalo Bills are not only 3-4, but are late game Bronco and Cowboy miracles away from being 5-2. And though they’ve benefited from playing the Jets twice, the other five Bills games have all been against significant playoff contenders. That’s a serious coaching job being done by Dick Jauron.
21. Conversely, the Browns appear to be overperforming at 4-3, but three of their wins (Bengals, Dolphins, Rams) have come against teams with a 2-21 combined record.
22. The Jets and Broncos have each covered exactly one pointspread this season.
23. With the Yanks swearing him off does Alex Rodriguez have not hope to be signed by either of the two biggest spenders in baseball? Red Sox fans hope so, chanting “Don’t sign A-Rod!” at GM Theo Epstein after the Sox series clinching win in Colorado.
24. And let me tell you, as a native New Englander who suffered through managerial regimes of people like Billy Sullivan, Victor Kiam, and Buddy LeRoux, nothing’s any stranger than having both the Patriots and Red Sox referred to as model franchises.
25. If you’d like 12 fully analyzed and thoroughly researched pointspread selections each week, you should consider a subscription to my newsletter, The Maximum Profit Football Weekly. You can get The Max for only $79 through the Super Bowl by calling my office at 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for reading this far. Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

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