The bombs that seem to drop in the Breeders’ Cup every year make it a pretty attractive wagering proposition. I like horses, but am way too busy during football season to pay any attention to them. This combination makes me a sucker for hot tips from smart people on Cup Day (or this year, Days).

In the 8th Race, The Mile, two different smart guys I know gave me #4 Host, and they both seem to like him a lot. While it is not notable for thoroughbred sharpies to land on the same horse, what is notable is the odds. Host is listed at 30-1 on the morning line. I know nothing other than the fact that a couple of people like him. Still, based on the odds alone, Host might be worth a look.

The 50 or so wagering windows ordinarily open for betting at Wembley Stadium events will be closed for the Giants-Dolphins game Sunday. But the bookie shops around the stadium will be offering a wide array of wagers.

Fans in London, used to betting on the games they’re watching right in the concourses, will surely find the NFL’s stance laughable.

25 observations on, football (mostly), baseball, horse racing, and the sports betting world.

1. LSU is a tremendous team, with their only loss being on the road in overtime despite playing 5 teams currently 22nd or higher in the BCS rankings. The Tigers outgain opponents by over 200 yards per game on average. Yet they’ve failed to cover five in a row. The lesson? Beware September’s undisputed champion, as the pointspread is a great equalizer.

2. In taking on Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn, LSU has played five teams tougher than any individual opponent that undefeated Ohio State, Boston College, Kansas, Arizona State, and Hawaii have faced prior to this week. BC/Virginia Tech and Cal/Arizona State change that this weekend.

3. College scoring has skewed downward in recent weeks. Overs were rolling with the new rules early, but in conference play, with the great familiarity between opponents, scoring has lessened considerably. In fact, there have now been more unders than overs on the season, despite the big tear that over bettors enjoyed early.

4. CBS’s Spencer Tillman takes a break from predicting that all the Top 10 teams will win easily to talk about the how the Generation Y athlete needs to be motivated differently than their predecessors were.

5. Matt Forte of Tulane is a prime candidate for our annual Deonce Whitaker Award. Whitaker used to put up sick numbers at San Jose State with nobody noticing, and Forte is doing the same. After going for 342 yards on 38 carries at SMU on Saturday, Forte now has an incredible 753 yards rushing in his last three games.

6. Forte’s production is greatly enhanced by playing in Conference USA. Of the 12 teams allowing the most yards per game in 1A college football, 6 of them are CUSA entrants.

7. If you lost track of them after Stanford’s cataclysmic win over Southern Cal as 41-point underdogs, the Cardinal pulled off a win as a double digit dog in Tucson last week. As bad as they’ve been the past few years, Stanford is 9-3 as a road dog since the departure of Buddy Teevens.

8. It is every worse than you think it is at Nebraska. The 4-4 Huskers have been outgained in every single game since their opening win over Nevada. In the last three weeks they’ve been outscored by 88 points and outgained by 579 yards. Despite all this, coach Bill Callahan claims to be doing “an excellent job in every area.”

9. The losing leaves some Nebraska fans pleased, as at least it has them closer to a new coach.

10. Nick Saban thoroughly outcoached Phil Fulmer Saturday. Despite losing 5 players due to a surprise suspension involving textbook sales, Bama jumped the Vols early, opening with an onside kick that led to a field goal. The subsequent Bama TD drive was aided by a 4^th down offside call as Alabama motion confused Tennessee. A 3^rd down incomplete pass was canceled out by a Tennessee roughing the passer violation. And that was just the beginning. Folks in Miami don’t have much to say about him, but at this level he sure can coach.

11. Georgia people are yapping that even though they get half the tickets, Jacksonville isn’t a neutral site for the annual battle between Bulldogs and Gators. Funny, you don’t hear Oklahoma people whining about Dallas being favorable to the Longhorns, do you?

12. It was pretty remarkable to have the opportunity to get better than 2-1 odds in the World Series on a team that had won 21 of 22 games, but Game 1 of the Series showed that maybe the oddsmakers knew what they were doing. The Rockies couldn’t have looked any rustier off of their 8-day layoff.

13. The flow of the postseason was really damaged by the unnatural made-for-TV off days. In addition, it is terribly late to just be staring the Fall Classic. The 1975 World Series that the Red Sox lost to the Reds went seven games, had three rainouts between Games 6 and 7, and still wrapped up on October 22nd. This year’s didn’t even start until October 24th.

14. Sunday night in the NFL we saw how a bye week can completely interrupt a team’s flow. The Steelers were rolling into their off week while the Broncos were wheezing. The bye week proved to be momentum-interruptus, as Pittsburgh’s superior stats meant nothing. It was a victory for situational handicapping over matchup edges.

15. At -17, the Patriots were the biggest road favorite since a the 1987 player’s strike, when the replacement Niners were favored at the replacement Falcons by 23.5. The only time this year they’ll possibly threaten that is their game at the Bills. Games at the Colts, the Ravens, and the Giants will be much more competitively priced.

16. Will the Pats go undefeated? Obviously the game at Indy on November 4th is a huge stumbling block. But the season-ending Saturday game at the Giants is interesting. A win in Indy and chances are good that New England will have nothing to play for that final week of the campaign. Meanwhile, in a competitive division there’s every chance that it will be a critically important game for the Giants, who are a Wembley Stadium win over 0-7 Miami away from hitting their bye week with a 6-2 mark.

17. Trying to get Bill Belichick’s goat is becoming a cottage industry in the media. In the post game press conference, Sal Paolentonio was accusing him of running up the score at the same moment that the Texans took the lead after trailing by 25 in the fourth quarter. For the record, Belichick initially replaced Brady with Matt Cassel on the Patriots’ second drive of the second half.

18. Joey Porter has been a big-money free agent bust for the Dolphins. And finally taking a taste of success he wasn’t going to let the fact his club was getting blown out interfere with his personal histrionics. After picking up his first sack of the season in the second quarter he did the “kick the dirt” sack dance he believes that he was known for in Pittsburgh. On the next play a Tom Brady TD pass to Randy Moss made the score 35-7. Nice touch by Porter, however, to donate $5,000 to a youth basketball team for “at risk” kids.

19. Keyshawn Johnson was pretty tough with his cousin Chad Johnson in their “Sunday Conversation” on ESPN. It was a refreshing change from the enabling that Michael Irvin used to do in the same slot. Folks in Tampa Bay would probably have liked to see today’s Keyshawn Johnson interview the Keyshawn Johnson who was such a cancer on the Bucs that they paid him to stay away from the team late in the 2003 season.

20. Vikings Coach Brad Childress doesn’t seem to be the best in-game strategy guy in the league. He made a horrid decision to challenge a call in the third quarter in Dallas. Marion Barber scored on a 1-yard TD run to pull the Cowboys to within an extra point of a 14-all tie. Though the immediate replays showed that it was a definite touchdown. Childress tossed the challenge flag before he could even hear from his coaches in the booth. A challenge and a timeout, both wasted.

21. You horse guys shouldn’t have some of the problems you had in the Triple Crown getting horse bets down, as the account wagering rivalries seem to have settled down just a bit, with every major player accepting Breeders Cup bets as a result.

22. And it is never a bad idea to check in with Andy Beyer on a big racing day.

23. Our horse handicapper Dan Branham is offering his Breeders Cup selections for $79. Call my office at 1-770-649-1078 to sign up.

24. Who knew? Betting action points on rugby is big in South Africa, where the government may abolish taxes on sports betting next year. .

25. The Breeders Cup is great, but obviously our focus remains on football. My weekly newsletter The Max has 12 thoroughly researched pointspread selections. You get The Max delivered to your inbox every Monday night through the Super Bowl for only $89. For further details or to have your questions answered call 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for reading. Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

New England is a 16-point pick over the Redskins, with some stray 16.5 out there. Joe Gibbs said that the Redskins were the “biggest underdog in the history of sports” this week. They aren’t of course, but the question is, are they the biggest underdog in the proud history of the Redskins franchise? The answer to that is “no” as well.

On their three trips to Dallas in 1993, 1994, and 1995 the Redskins were catching 17, 16, and 17.5 points. They actually won the last of those games. On December 3, 1995, as a 17.5 point puppy, Washington pulled off a stunning 24-17 outright win. The 2007 Redskins have a heck of a defense for a team getting 16-points and the franchise is in much better shape than it was from 1993-1995, when they went 12-36 over the three year span.

The one thing the Redskins are is the biggest underdog they’ve ever been under Joe Gibbs. Richie Pettibon (remember him?) was the ’skins coach in 1993, the year after Gibbs left the first time. Norv Turner was the ‘Skins head man in ‘94 and ‘95, engineering the big upset over the Cowboys in the latter year.

Back later with 25 things you should know before attacking this weekend’s football card.

Wind does nothing positive for the passing game. Forecasts in Colorado Springs and Boulder both call for steady 20-30MPH winds. The Wyoming/Air Force game already figures to be ground oriented but this might really effect the passing game in the Kansas State/Colorado matchup.

25 observations from the football and sports betting worlds:

1. Wouldn’t be nice if more coaches were as straightforward as Cal’s Jeff Tedford was when talking about his decision-making in the Golden Bears loss to Oregon State? Tedford doesn’t shirk from the hard questions, but of course the queries aren’t quite as aggressive in Berkley as they are in Columbus, Baton Rouge, and other more football-centric locales.
2. I’ve got a friend, a serious bettor in Las Vegas, who leaves baseball behind once the gridiron battles begin. He has bet a single baseball game since Labor Day. He bet on the Rockies in the one game they lost in the last 22. That’s hard to do.
3. That horrendous timing reminded me of the people who withdrew from Pinnacle when they stopped serving US customers just in time for Neteller to go south. Two people who should have been better informed asked me recently if they had any chance at their Neteller money. If you somehow missed it, you’ve had access to that cash for a while now. Check their web site..
4. Rutgers and their coach Greg Schiano aren’t making a lot of friends this season..
5. With the erratic quarterback play of the Bears, it is no surprise that the injured Lido Sheppard finds his way back to the lineup this week for the Eagles. Also in Philly, it looks like Brian Westbrook should have let the Eagles know immediately when he received his $3 million roster bonus twice by mistake. Not only is the money being withheld from his paycheck, but Westbrook is on the hook for getting the $1.3 million in taxes back from the various agencies that collected it..
6. Starting his career with a 17-1 record, UW coach Bret Bielema was off to the second-best start in the history of Big Ten football coaching. If you want a record that will never be broken, here’s one for you. Kicking off his career in 1901, Fielding Yost led Michigan to a 55-0-1 record before suffering his first loss in 1905. Of course the propensity of the Badgers to allow big plays defensively finally caught up to them the past two weeks, and Bielema’s career mark is now 17-3..
7. With rare exceptions, teasers are terrible bets in college football. Look at Louisville. The Cardinals are 2-4 against the spread, failing to cover by 25, 11½, 40½ and 24, while notching their only two covers by 10½ and 14..
8. Now don’t misread the above. We’re not saying you don’t shop for points and good value in college football, we’re telling you that it is simply less likely that the games will land within tight margins in college football as opposed to the NFL..
9. Boy that “Beckham to Change the Face of American Soccer” thing really was worth all the media coverage this summer, wasn’t it?.
10. Is this really a member of the American media actually digging deep into the truths about sports betting? Yes it is. The Baltimore Sun’s Bill Ordine writes:.”Over and over again, the lesson is driven home that a reputable, government-regulated, tax-paying, vested self-interest sports gambling industry — along with strong policies among sports organizations to educate and police players and officials — is about the only way to keep instances of game-fixing to a minimum.”.
11. In the Monday Night Football booth Jimmy Kimmel said hello to Joe Theismann, “watching from home with steam coming out of his ears.” Theismann, of course, was canned from the ESPN broadcast last year and was none too happy about it. Kimmel has been banned from future Monday Night Football contests for being “classless and disappointing”..
12. Kimmel had a great line about an employee who had unhappily separated from ESPN/ABC last year as well. In the booth during a cold, windy, rainy game in Seattle, talk turned to the conditions and Kimmel said “if only John Madden were alive to see this.” Funny that ESPN didn’t find criticizing someone working elsewhere to be “classless and disappointing. ” You hire Rush Limbaugh on your pregame show and fire him for being Rush Limbaugh. You have Jimmy Kimmel in your booth and ban him for being Jimmy Kimmel. If only they’d ban Stuart Scott for being Stuart Scott..
13. John Fox says that even if David Carr is healthy, he may not be the Panthers quarterback after the bye week. It really speaks to the lack of quality quarterbacks when a 43-year old man gets offers early in the week from two teams and then heads up the effort of one of them to beat the other that Sunday..
14. Don’t look for relative youngster Drew Bledsoe to come back. He’s rebuffed offers and is happily attending school board meetings.
15. Since I like trip reports from places I want to see a game someday, and since I’ve never been to Lambeau Field, I enjoyed Steve Czaban’s report from Green Bay..
16. My appearances on the Friday Czaban show appear to be relatively set in stone at 8:10AM EDT on the 100+ Fox Sports Radio affiliate’s that carry his program. The show also runs on XM 142, which also offers a replay where I appear at 2:10PM EDT..
17. Here’s what passes for monumental if you’re Syracuse these days. Trailing 38-14 (after leading 14-0) in an empty Carrier Dome Syracuse’s final running play of the day was a 13-yard gain by Doug Hogue. With that carry Syracuse became the final 1-A team to rush for 100 yards in a game as a team this season. No way Greg Robinson is back next year if the Orangemen lose at home to Buffalo Saturday. So do Syracuse fans root against the humiliation, or root for the housecleaning?.
18. R&B singer R. Kelly is probably looking for vacation property in Maine these days..
19. You Mid-Atlantic types shouldn’t get too excited about the potential for legalized sports betting in Delaware. Even if they have it, it will be in a lottery-type fashion, meaning parlay cards with lousy payoffs..
20. Is it more impressive that the 6-0 Patriots have outgained their opponents by 1050 yards or is it more impressive that they’ve covered all six games by a total of 82 points?.
21. Looking for an old-fashioned complimentary selection phones with sound analysis and interesting pointspread data? Dave Fobare’s comp phone is at 1-770-618-8700, while Matty Baiungo and Erik Scheponik share a comp line at 1-404-250-7555. Both are 24-hour broadcasts, so call any time..
22. Remember the preseason thought that Air Force would struggle as Troy Calhoun instituted an offense with more passing using the run-oriented personnel inherited from Fisher DeBerry? Well Calhoun didn’t just fall off the turnip truck. Against Colorado State’s weak run defense, the Falcons ran the ball 69 times and threw only 7 passes. Air Force won 41-21 as tight end (yes, tight end) Chad Hall ran 31 times for 256 yards. Hall started the season as an H-back type labeled as a tight end but is carrying the ball out of the backfield..
23. According to the Phoenix Coyotes (that’s a hockey team, by the way), Penn State should not be using the phrase “White Out” when they encourage fans to wear white to night games. The tradition-laden Coyotes hold the trademark to the phrase. Penn State is now using the phrase “Penn State White Out”, which means that it’ll soon be lawsuit time..
24. In their last 19 games, the Minnesota Vikings have allowed an opposing team to rush for over 100 yards exactly once, when the Vikes let the Rams run all over them to the tune of 168 yards in last season’s finale. Minnesota is allowing 63 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry since the beginning of last season..
25. The Hoover (Alabama) High School football program immortalized by the ESPN program “Two-A-Days” is in upheaval, with the coach being investigated for unauthorized benefits, an affair with an administrator, supporting two families, and all sorts of other tawdry allegations to go along with more mundane stuff like academic malfeasance to keep players eligible.

Have a great weekend. Good luck and be careful.

BetOnSports founder Gary “Greg Champion” Kaplan awaits trial in St. Louis, and a local alternative weekly does a lengthy piece on the former sports betting titan. Meanwhile, poker rooms continue to advertise all over ESPN.

It appears to be a piece that relies too much upon purported stories of those who claim to be there. Some may be in the realm of urban myth. But it is an interesting read.

Our transition to the new format took a little longer than we expected, but we’re back and will have plenty of information on Friday and all weekend long. Check back often.

Here’s this week’s observations of the football and wagering world. Please note that RealWorldSports will be undergoing a redesign in the next few days. We’ll be back Friday or so.

1. Top 10 favorites went 0-9 to the spread (California won as a dog at Oregon) this weekend. But it was the margins of non-covers that was the real shocker. Ohio State failed to cover the closing number by a point, and Wisconsin came up short by 4½ to the pointspread. The remaining 7 Top 10 favorites missed the pointspread by 15 (West Virginia), 16 (USC), 18 (LSU), 20 (Florida), 26 (Oklahoma), 27½ (Rutgers), and 34½ (Texas)

2. Despite the powerful performance at the top of the food chain, you may be surprised to hear the betting every underdog in college football would have cost you money this weekend. Underdogs went 27-26 against the spread, a juice-losing proposition for someone who played every dog blindly.

3. Underdogs had a big weekend in the NFL as well, prior to Monday night, NFL dogs went 9-4, with all 9 teams not just covering, but winning outright.

4. If you like your Fantasy Football but would rather battle a sportsbook rather than a bunch of numbskulls in a local league, the Stations properties in Las Vegas have what you’re looking for.

5. This “attempt” by the US government to settle their WTO difficulties regarding internet wagering are absolutely laughable. Antigua, whose economy has been decimated by US government action against internet gambling, was offered a half-million dollars.

6. After the targeted murder of Memphis defensive lineman Taylor Bradford, tell me how Memphis doesn’t postpone Tuesday night’s game with Marshall? Or how the team can possibly be ready to play? Memphis does plan “to observe a moment of silence before the start”. Well, good for them.

7. You’ll notice more than ever before, that coaches are talking to the media about their rotations. How many defensive linemen get to play, how many linebackers, etc. Sure, they want to keep guys fresh, but why else are they emphasizing this? As is the case with a lot of college football questions, the answer is recruiting. Kids know that it takes time to become a front-line major college player. But they want to play, and seeing other get some time early lets them know that they can earn playing time even before they’re ready to be a starter.

8. The best football analyst on TV nobody’s seeing? Charles Davis. A couple of years ago I was driving from off-strip property to off-strip property in Vegas in an effort to scoop up off numbers, and I heard a long form interview with Davis on the radio. Then with TBS, I was impressed with the knowledge he showed on teams and players from around the country. He’s outstanding with in game analysis, jumping on game plans early, and catching on to halftime adjustments. Unfortunately, Davis is buried on the Big Ten Network, which is hardly enjoying widespread distribution right now.

9. They cost you nothing, yet you can learn a lot. If you like to listen to top-level pointspread analysis, there are a couple of great calls for you to make. Call Dave Fobare’s hotline broadcast at 1-770-618-8700 for free selections. Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo broadcast their analysis at 1-404-250-7555. Both of these are 24-hour free recordings, so you can call any time.

10. Usually college teams don’t try to pour it on against an outmanned opponent, but Karl Dorrell may be feeling the heat in Westwood for this team’s up and down performance. After all, most coaches don’t blitz cornerbacks when they’re up 40-14 with less than a minute to go.

11. Some blowouts are not as dominant as they appear to be. Despite the 45-17 final, Ole’ Miss hung right in there at Georgia for a good, long while, with the game tied 17-17 late in the third quarter, with their two TD drives being 86 and 84 yard efforts, and traveling 58 yards to have kicked the field goal. But Georgia’s depth overwhelmed the Rebels in the final 20 minutes, when Georgia took advantage of some great field position and a tired, undersized Mississippi defensive front to run away and hide. The Rebels play hard every week but have trouble manning up for the full 60 minutes. They might be a better first-half proposition than full game play in some circumstances.

12. Some games are not as close as they appear. Southern Cal by only 3 at Washington? How did it stay that close when Trojans outgained Huskies 560-190?

13. And some games you just can’t figure out how one team beat the other 35-17. Iowa State lost to Nebraska by that score despite enjoying a 28-17 first down edge while outrushing and outpassing the Cornhuskers.

14. Similarly, Northern Illinois outgained Central Michigan 521-381 but gave up 6 turnovers and lost by 25. And how would you like to have had over 61 in that game, when it was 35-10 with more than 3 minutes left in the second quarter? I would have too, but not after the final score of that exact same 35-10 came rolling in.

15. And that can spread to an entire conference, as outplaying your opponent at the line of scrimmage was no guarantee of victory in the Big 10 on Saturday, as four of the five conference games saw the victor outgained by the vanquished. Penn State outgained Illinois by 91 yards but lost. Michigan State outgained Wisconsin by 102 yards but lost. Northwestern outgained Michigan but lost. Iowa outgained Indiana, but lost. The only exception was Ohio State being as dominant as their 30-7 win over Minnesota suggested.

16. According to this reader, the sordid behavior of Rutgers fans (see item 15 here) is no media fabrication, “Kevin, I have to tell you that as somebody who supported Rutgers since before they were good, I find it hard to continue “the love affair” all of New Jersey is having with the Knights. As a season ticket holder, I’m disgusted by the level of knowledge about the team and behavior exhibited by other fans. Going to every home and away game last year was an unforgettable experience but with the way people from New Jersey behave, I’m beginning to dislike the idea of attending games.”

17. On Sunday afternoon Big Ten girls soccer was in HD on the Big Ten network. The Falcons/Texans game was not in HD on Fox. I realize there are capacity issues, but it seemed pretty weird.

18. Deangelo Hall was in the news quite a big last week. And one of the things that came out gives you a hint as to how “Players coach” Jim Mora lost his team last year. Jeff Schultz reports “There was an incident in training camp when the coach organized a “team-building” outing to the movies. Players and coaches loaded buses to see “Invincible.” But Hall spun out of the parking lot in his Lamborghini. Mora not only allowed it, he jumped into the Lamborghini with Hall. Veterans watching from the bus were stunned.” Wow.

19. Michael Strahan continues to be a guy who puts self above team. When he became the Giants leading sacker of all time, yet another phony sack record for him (Laurence Taylor did not get any sacks his rookie year because they weren’t yet an approved statistic) he waved to the crowd and celebrated with his teammates. But the game hadn’t been stopped. The Giants barely got lined up for the 2nd and 13 play and the Eagles Cornell Buckhalter encountered little resistance as he ran a quick hitter right up the gut for 13 yards.

20. If you were wondering why the Eagles kept passing the ball and refused to help inexperienced offensive tackle Justice, you’re not alone.

21. And as fun as the Philly papers are to read when the Eagles lose, when the New York baseball teams go south, the papers in the Big Apple are even more enjoyable.

22. Nobody has really noticed, as they snaked out a couple of wins early, but the now 2-2 49ers are suffering from a major offensive outage despite all their young skill position talent. Nolan’s Niners have now been held under 200 yards in three of their four games.

23. The Browns win this week’s efficiency award. How do you win a game 27-13 when you’re outgained by 115 yards? By jumping out early and by having 278 of your 303 yards come on scoring drives.

24. After ran for 116 yards on 14 carries in the first half, how much would you have bet if someone gave you San Diego +23 over Kansas City in the second half? And why in the world did the Chargers only run the ball seven times the rest of the way?

25. Subscribers to my Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone service enjoyed a pointspread mark of better than 61% in September. If you’d like to benefit from my research, hard work, and experience, call my office at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Remember, we’ll be quiet here for a few days. Back Friday or so looking far less ugly.