Shockingly, wonderfully optimistic news out of Buffalo.

Last week we touched on Utah’s horrid injury situation. It is even worse now. And really, that article doesn’t even touch on some of the situations on the defensive side of the ball. My caluclation is that after expecting to have 15 to 16 starters back this season, Utah currently has 8 guys starting in the positions they were expected to start in according to the preseason depth chart. Yikes.

Before we sail into the weekend with the Navy/Rutgers game, let’s mention our Maximum Profit Football Annual, which you may or may not have received. The annual includes a number of team previews and other valuable sports handicapping information and a lot of you really look forward to it each year.

You know that in the past, if you missed the preseason deadline you missed the preseason deadline. But with the problems that the Annual has had in being delivered this year, we certainly aren’t looking to squeeze you on the deadline. You can still get 12 fully analyzed selections in this weekend’s football for less than $7 per week. Call 1-770-649-1078 right now and you’ll receive this week’s Max newsletter via email a few minutes later. Remember, with the preseason discount it is less than $7 per week and it is fully guaranteed.

Rutgers is being bet like crazy, with the line up to 17. Last year Rutgers crushed Navy 34-0. Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada had been pressed into service due to an injury to Brian Hampton and was only 2 for 6 passing and ran 22 times for 11 yards (including some sacks). Rutgers simply overpowered an outmanned Navy line and smothered an experienced quarterback.

Kaheaku-Enhada is more prepared to handle the pressure of Rutgers, but he has a lot of inexperience around him. There are only 9 starters returning from last year and after a quick start to their game at Temple, scoring TD’s on a pair of early possessions, the Midshipmen stumbled to a non-covering win. Rutgers is bigger, faster, and stronger, which explains the significant line move in their direction. But before you load up on the favorite, keep one thing about Navy in mind. In five years under Paul Johnson, the Middies are a stellar 26-8 against the pointspread. Johnson’s ability to get his team to play well on the road is unmatched in college football.

We’ll be passing this game tonight, but wish you well if you elect to play it. Good luck this weekend, and remember to subscribe to our newsletter, the Maximum Profit Football Weekly, for less than $7 per week. Call 1-770-649-1078 for that special preseason discount.

The Colts take on the Saints in the premier game on Thursday night. These Thursday night games to start the season have seen the defending champs take 5 straight, with a pointspread mark of 4-0-1. All those games were home games with the exception of Tampa Bay’s 17-0 road whitewash in Philadelphia. The Bucs made enough of a stink about being on the road that the defending champs have been rewarded with the Thursday home game the last three years. These offenses should be fine. The key question…are these Colts the ones that gave up 173 rushing yards per game in the regular season last year or the ones who gave up 83 yards per game in the postseason?

Oregon State visits Cincinnati with Sammy Stroughter in the lineup. OSU’s quarterbacks looked very limited last week but their running game was outstanding and the defense has great speed. The homestanding Bearcats have a new coaching staff (that was with them for their bowl game last year) and are a largely unproven commodity, as their 59-3 win over Southeast Missouri State is meaningless.

Over the last three years, Louisville is 4-2 laying 30 or more, but one of the failures was in a bland 42-17 win in neutral Nashville against MTSU last year. MTSU is banged up on the offensive line and has little depth.

Enjoy your Thursday night football.

Let’s look at our own Top 25. 25 observations about the football weekend that was.

1. The focus was on the grand upset, but college football was relentlessly chalky this weekend, with post-time favorites going 32-15. That’s why the guy in your mailroom is bragging about going 8-2 on the weekend.

2. App State’s QB Armanti Edwards looked like an All-American as he hot-knifed through the buttery Michigan defense. So why is he in 1-AA? He was an Ole’ Miss commitment, but that doesn’t mean much. Ed Orgeron’s recruiting machine wallpapers the Southeast with offers knowing that they’ll have to tell some of their verbal commitments to buzz off due to their sheer volume. The Rebels pulled their offer because they didn’t know he was only 5-11. Yes, that’s the same Ole’ Miss team that has been essentially quarterback-less since Orgeron’s arrival. Edwards drew late interest from some 1-A teams, including an offer from Clemson, but most wanted to turn him into a wide receiver, so he honored his commitment to the Mountaineers.

3. It is widely assumed that this is Lloyd Carr’s last year in Ann Arbor. And the obvious head coach in waiting was defensive coordinator Ron English. English drew raves when the Wolverines stingy D allowed 12 points and 231 yards per game in their first 11 contests last year. But against Ohio State, USC, and Appalachian State, UM has permitted 36 points on 443 yards per game. The groundswell of support for English is likely ebbing.

4. We had Michigan as a “go against” team in our Maximum Profit Football Annual, so as much as we enjoy monumental upsets, it was disappointing to see Michigan so exposed in an unlined game. Now everyone knows their defense has issues before we even had a chance to take advantage of our opinion. By the way, if you expected to get our Football Annual, it is finally being delivered to people. We planned on it coming out a little later than usual this year to take advantage of what we could learn in the early stages of fall practice, but not this late. It would be impolite to mention the printer/mailer incompetence that is the issue here, so we won’t.

So most of you will get your copy this week. Those of you who haven’t either received this publication in the past or asked for it this year, visit www.FootballAnnual.com and do so today.

5. For Michigan to fall from 5th in the AP poll to 32nd is an insult to App State. The Mountaineers have a world of talent and would have beaten an awful lot of 1-A teams Saturday. It would be tougher for ASU to spring such an upset later in the year, as having 22 fewer scholarships than 1-A clubs would leave them at a substantial depth disadvantage as the season wears on and the injury list lengthens.

6. Not that they looked any good, but it wasn’t entirely the Notre Dame quarterbacks collective fault that they were sacked 9 times on Saturday, was it?

7. Had to laugh at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution sending staffer Steve Hummer to follow Vince Dooley, who attended son Derek’s coaching debut at Louisiana Tech in Ruston. The byline in print editions is from “Rustin”. Blogging without an editor, we’re sure to make mistakes. The AJC presumably has editors who should know or find out that Tech is in Ruston, not “Rustin”.

8. Derek Dooley replaced another coach’s son, Jack Bicknell, Jr., at Louisiana Tech. Bicknell is now on the staff of his alma mater at Boston College. Dooley and Louisiana Tech should enjoy their 28-7 win over Central Arkansas, as the Bulldogs face Hawaii and Cal the next two weeks.

9.The Hawaii game is the Western Athletic Conference opener for Tech. Yes, teams in Ruston and Honolulu, separated by over 4,000 miles, play in the same conference. On October 20th, Boise State will have traveled a mere 2,000 miles to get to Ruston for their WAC contest.

10. Dooley’s devotion to his son’s Louisiana Tech debut caused him to miss a UGA opener for only the second time since he became Georgia’s head coach in 1964. Dooley also missed the 1989 opener when he was an analyst for ESPN. Dooley’s an interesting guy. While an Auburn assistant he earned a Masters in History in 1963 and then coached against the Tigers the next year. Wonder when the last time was that a head coach had earned a degree from a school and then been the head coach against that team the following year.

11. Bet you didn’t think that 4 observations out of our Top 25 would involve Louisiana Tech. Neither did we.

12. Georgia looked tremendous against Oklahoma State. UGA’s offensive line is massively inexperienced, and it remains to be seen if it was Oklahoma State’s compliant defensive line just made them look good, or if this young line is much more solid than we figured. One big surprise to us was Oklahoma State’s inability to take advantage of Georgia’s youth on defense. OSU averaged over 200 yards both running and passing last year and had a lot of important pieces of their offensive group back. But UGA stifled them, allowing only 266 total yards. Mark Richt may simply have attracted a talent level where the Bulldogs simply reload. Or maybe we had OSU is just really overrated.

13. Unluckiest team of the season thus far is Utah. Midway through the 2nd quarter of their Thursday night game against Oregon State, the Utes had lost the top offensive tackle in the Mountain West (preseason injury), their top running back (1st quarter injury), and their star quarterback (2nd quarter injury). The only one not out for the year is QB Brian Johnson, immense in ’05 before after missing all of last year with an injury. Johnson will be out for a few weeks with his separated shoulder. His backup is Tommy Grady, a top-ranked recruit who washed out at Oklahoma before transferring to Utah Johnson is a dual-threat in the Alex Smith mold. Grady is 6-7 but plays like he’s 6-11. Grady was 9 for 24 in relief of Smith without Johnson’s mobility. Last year he was 7-14 with 3 interceptions.

14. The NCAA tells us they detest gambling. But did anyone notice that the first down line on the Oregon State broadcast on Fox Sports Northwest was sponsored by the Emerald Queen Casino, with the casino’s logo graphically portrayed on the field several times?

15. Some injuries, like the Utah QB, RB, and OT injuries mentioned above, are critical. Others are less so. Georgia and NC State lost their top RB’s from last season to injury in their openers. NC State’s Toney Baker is out for the season with a torn ACL. Georgia’s Kregg Lumpkin fractured and dislocated his thumb, and he’ll be out for a few weeks. But both teams are extremely deep at running back and should be fine.

16. Nobody ever accused Cal-Berkeley students of being overly classy, but wasn’t chanting “Pac 10 Football!” and having the band play as Tennessee’s Xavier Mitchell lay motionless on the turf a low even for them? Fortunately, Mitchell’s injury proved to be a concussion and is not to be spinal cord related. The Musburger-led broadcast team didn’t comment on the chanting.

17. There is apparently ESPN video of North Texas players yelling “Stoops got outcoached” after Oklahoma’s Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State. Saturday, Oklahoma had the 39-point spread covered in the 2nd quarter and beat North Texas 79-10.

18. USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt was Idaho’s head man for the 2005 season. USC showed little interest in beating up Idaho, never threatening the 49-point spread in a 38-10 win.

19. The importance of motivational factors in instances like the previous two entries can be really obvious, especially after the fact. In actuality, bettors lost on those games, as USC was bet up from 44 and Oklahoma was favored by as high as 42 before action came in on North Texas.

20. Nice of June Jones to take Colt Brennan out of the game at halftime. Would have been nicer still for Rainbow Warrior quarterbacks to have handed off more than twice all night. That’s right, Hawaii threw 59 times and ran 10 times, with 8 of the runs being by quarterbacks, presumably mostly as scrambles, as Hawaii was not sacked.

21. A correspondent breathlessly called our office to tell us that the Denver Broncos would play no starters in their final preseason game and would give the most time to players they planned on cutting. Apparently he was unaware that in the fourth week of the preseason….well, sometimes you just have to be polite and say “thank you”. In case you missed it (and if you have a job or a family, you probably did), the Broncos future waiver wire material somehow found a way to beat the Cardinals castoffs-to-be 21-3 in front of thousands of empty seats that season ticket holders had paid regular season prices for.

22. Wade Wilson’s suspension is a little weird. If HGH and steroids are legal for medical needs…..and Wilson was really just trying to battle his diabetes…. But what was Wilson doing going to a mail order pharmacy instead of to a top Chicago doctor? Is that the issue? Or are NFL coaches and employees not allowed to take substances that the players can’t take no matter what their health situation? Would Wilson had been OK if he told his team and the league, “hey, I’m going to experiment with HGH because some say it can ease the suffering of diabetics.”? Read this article and ask yourself if this is a “five weeks without with your team” offense.

23. Has there ever been a head coach under more pressure entering his first year on the job than Norv Turner is under in San Diego as he relaces the guy who went 14-2?

24. The pressure on Turner and the Bolts to get off to a fast start is enhanced by New England having no Rodney Harrison for 4 weeks and no Richard Seymour for at least 6 weeks, neither of which were expected a week ago. The Patriots have a tough early schedule and not having your dominant lineman and your key backfield leader has got to cost them a game or two. The “New England is simply awesome” excuse is not an early option in San Diego.

25. If Kansas City or Atlanta was interested in winning now wouldn’t they have taken a gander at Byron Leftwich? Or maybe not. Leftwich led 10 drives against first string defenses in those drives the Jags punted 7 times, turned over on downs once, and scored a single TD. He completed 50% of his passes at less than 6 yards per pass. Factor in the reported attitude, and maybe KC is better off to just take a pass. Word is the Ravens are the most likely landing spot.

Thanks for reading this far. If you’re of a pointspread mindset, we’ve got 7 college and 5 NFL selections fully analyzed in our Maximum Profit Football Weekly newsletter this week. You can subscribe to the Max for less than 7 bucks a week if you call 1-770-649-1078 today.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

There’s a lot of talk about Appalachian State’s win over Michigan being potentially the biggest upset ever in college football. That may be understating the quality of App State, the two time defending 1-AA champs. When you judge from a pointspread perspective, it wasn’t quite there. Games involving 1-AA teams are generally not lined (they would be if they were on TV more often) although a couple of offshore books handle them. In a very thinly traded market, Michigan opened at around a 25-point favorite and was bet up to about 31. That’s a range that indicates a pretty stout upset.

But if you’re judging just the pointspread, there have been some bigger upsets.

In 1999 North Texas beat Texas Tech 21-14 as a 31-point dog. But North Texas also upset Texas Tech two years previous to that, though that was before North Texas games were included in the schedule rotation of Nevada and offshore sports books, so there is no line history on that 1997 game that I can find.

The largest pointspread upset that I’m familiar with was 2-4 Oregon State’s shocker over 4-2 Washington in 1985 as 36-point road underdogs. Oregon State had lost their previous three games by a cumulative 120-6. Two of those three games were shutout losses, as the previous week the Beavers lost 34-0 to Washington State, the week before that 63-0 to USC, and the week before that 23-6 to Grambling (Grambling!). But surprisingly, Oregon State had actually started the season 2-0 while Washington has begun the season 0-2. Both teams had already beaten Cal (OSU by 3, UW by 16). And though this was clearly a stunner, there is a game that was even more surprising, even though it had a slightly smaller pointspread.

For my money, the biggest upset occurred in 1998 when 0-6 Temple beat 5-0 Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. As I had Temple +35 that day, I recall exactly where I was when I heard that final score on the radio because I nearly drove off the road. Despite having the Owls with the points (Virginia Tech fit into just about every go-against letdown angle I knew of), there’s no way I would have taken 50-1 on the money line with Temple and I never would have projected this stunning upset.

Heading into Blacksburg, the Owls were 0-5 both straight up and against the spread, having lost to Maryland, Kansas State, Akron, Marshall, and Pittsburgh by a combined 160-39, including a trio of shutout losses. Virginia Tech was 5-0 both straight up and against the spread, winning those games by a total of 146-30. And the Hokies had cruised through a vicious schedule, as they had upset wins at Miami-FL and at Clemson to go with an impressive shutout over Boston College and a 3-TD win at Pitt. Virginia Tech clearly thought it was their bye week and Temple managed to pull off the unthinkable.

Whether or not you agree with my contention that Temple’s win was the most earth shattering, there’s one thing we can all agree on. Appalachian State should be thankful that they don’t appear on the Wolverines schedule next year. In the rematches in the year following the three enormous upsets we reference above, road teams Texas Tech/Washington/Virginia Tech gained their revenge over home teams North Texas/Oregon State/Temple by a combined 120-19.

September 23rd edit: As of September 22nd, there’s a new entrant in the “Biggest Upset Derby.”