Playing big NFL favorites is a good way to go broke. But I’d be wary of playing the Rams as a big dog today. In addition to the horrible injury situation on their offensive line, this is from the Dallas Morning News:

“It’s the second time this season and the third time in the last 19 games the Rams have played against a 3-4. Bulger has been sacked nine times in the other two games against 3-4s.”

As this may lead to turnovers and quick Dallas points, I don’t know if Rams team total under 17 might be the best way to attack this.

Here are another 25 observations from the football wagering world.

1.The Smurf Turf has a little too much age on it to be amusing anymore, but the Boise fans’ “odd numbered sections wear blue, even numbered sections wear orange” gambit is clever and fresh.

2. Nothing fresh about Texas A&M last Thursday night, as the Aggies 34-17 loss at Miami was actually much worse than that. It was 31-0 after three quarters. Javorskie Lane never got a carry until it was 24-0 midway through the 3rd. The 277-pound bruiser, who was second team all-conference last year when he ran for 19 TD’s, finished with 2 carries for 2 yards. Needless to say, the natives are restless in College Station.

3. Coach Fran should take lessons from Ed Orgeron. Orgeron is under fire at Ole’ Miss. So what does he do? He blames the players. Following the Rebels loss to Vandy, Orgeron said, “When you have guys who are not really physically or mentally ready to play at the speed of the game in the SEC,” he said, “they kind of look like they’re out of place.” Questioning whether your players belong in your conference hardly seems like a wise motivational tactic, but the Rebs did hang with Florida.

4. Speaking of that Ole’ Miss cover against Florida. Urban Meyer is now 0-9-1 against the spread laying points on the road in the regular season. In all other roles he’s 12-5-1 to the number since his arrival in Gainesville.

5. In week where college overs were 33-15, this was part of the scoring explosion, not only was Navy’s 46-43 win over Duke the final score in regulation, but in 27 minutes of game time from the 1st quarter into the 3rd quarter there were 10 touchdowns scored.

6. Duke’s 506 yards of offense in their loss was minor compared to other weekend goings on. Ball State gained 610 yards in their loss at Nebraska, missing a field goal at the gun that would have pulled the upset. The Huskers have allowed 89 points and 1,067 yards in their loss to USC and the narrow win Saturday. You have to think if Bo Pelini had gotten the Husker job that wouldn’t have happened. Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma State despite 718 yards of offense. Tech coach Mike Leach forced out defense coordinator Lyle Setencich after the game. Setencich’s wife has long-term health issues (hospitalized with a brain bleed a couple of years ago) and was admitted to the hospital again during the week prior to the Okie State game. Tough racket that coaching business.

7. Boston College beat Wake Forest and NC State in fairly evenly played games due to those two opponents combining for 11 turnovers, but the Eagles have become dominant in the last two weeks, outgaining Georgia Tech by 260 yards and whipping Army by 314 yards. Just 1-AA UMass this week for the Eagles.

8. Syracuse’s stunner at +37½ (and even +38 in places) over Louisville was the largest pointspread upset in history. But was it the most surprising upset? I don’t think so. More here.

9. Pac Ten folks definitely have reason to complain about East Coast bias. This Oregon/Cal game should be the national headliner, and it isn’t even the Pac Ten headliner, as the USC/Washington game is being played at night on ABC. I guess that means that it is suffering from West Coast bias as well. Both these teams have some defensive liabilities.

10. With Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State (only 270 yards against a Michigan offense lit up by others) all struggling offensively, young Ohio State suddenly looks like the class of the Big Ten. The Buckeyes simply smashed Northwestern, leading 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game, and reaching the 58-7 final score in the 3rd quarter before showing mercy on the outmanned Wildcats. The Buckeyes inexperienced skill position people should gain even more confidence at Minnesota facing a Gopher club that has allowed more than 500 yards to all four opponents this season, including two MAC teams and a Sun Belt outfit.

11. Notre Dame loses 31-14 at home to Michigan State (4-8 last year), gaining 203 yards in the process. This is hailed as progress, by their head coach, with Weis saying “we finally looked like a football team out there,” and thanking MSU Coach Mark Dantonio for not running up the score. Egads.

12. Losing to a Sun Belt team is embarrassing, but at least Memphis wasn’t humiliated on Thursday night. Against Central Florida, the Tigers were without their best offensive player and their best defensive player, but there’s still no excuse for letting Central Florida score the first six times they had the ball on the way to a 42-0 halftime lead and 601 yards of total offense. Due to last year’s injuries and bad luck, in certain circles much was expected from the Tigers this season, but it is shaping up to be a disaster if they don’t turn things around. With the UM administration thumbing their nose at a consultant’s report backing alumni who want to build an on campus stadium, the football program looks to be stuck in the Liberty Bowl and stuck in reverse.

13. Before moving on to the NFL…if you like to listen to top-level pointspread analysis, there are a couple of great calls for you to make. Call Dave Fobare’s hotline broadcast at 1-770-618-8700 for free selections. Dave has been particularly hot with his selections on that line. Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo broadcast their analysis at 1-404-250-7555. Both of these are 24-hour free recordings, so you can call any time.

14. Before DeAngelo Hall decided to let his ego and mouth turn a FG attempt into a penalty-fueled TD midway through the 3rd quarter, the Falcons led 17-10 on the scoreboard and 335-136. That turned the game around and Carolina came back for a 27-20 win.

15. The Direct TV Red Zone channel is terrific. And host Andrew Siciliano pulls no punches. In the span of 30 seconds he narrated highlights with “Roddy White wakes up and remembers he’s a first round pick” and “Ronald Curry hauls in a touchdown pass and then the punk move at the end”.

16. Act Like You’ve Been There Department. After his defender fell down, allowing him to waltz for a touchdown, the aforementioned White did a somersault into the end zone and jumped into the stands. One or the other, please, though “neither” would be preferred.

17. For a guy whose Stanford team scored more than 10 points exactly once in the seven games he started last year, Bills rookie QB Trent Edwards looked fairly competent in relief of JP Losman. In addition to the Losman injury, the Bills had only six of their projected defensive starters in New England, and three of those guys are on injured reserve.

18. With all the injuries, the Bills have a chance to be historically bad. They’ve been outgained 284, 197, and 297 yards thus far and allowing opponents to gain 2.7 yards per play than Buffalo gains themselves. Graded they’ve played a tough schedule in the Broncos, Steelers, and Patriots, but that’s just awful. The Jets were outplayed on the line of scrimmage by Miami, and were lucky to win that game, but it is difficult to fade them here with a Bills team that is being outgained by an average of 200-458, giving them the 32nd ranked offense and the 32nd ranked defense. After Sunday it is doubtful that we’ll see the Jets as a road favorite any time soon.

19. The Rams are as banged up offensively as the Bills are defensively. In addition to Steven Jackson being out and Marc Bulger playing with broken ribs, starting center Brett Romberg will be the only Rams offensive lineman to have started all four games when he lines up against Dallas on Sunday.

20. The Bears are getting all the publicity, but the Lions are each far from healthy on defense. You’d have to look long and hard to find two teams playing each other with injury lists so chock full of defensive starters.

21. The Bills, Rams, Bears, and Lions aren’t alone. Does it seem like there has been an absolute scourge of injuries league-wide thus far?

22. I don’t mind the players shaking hands, fraternizing, praying, etc. after the games, but if I’m a Broncos fan I’m not thrilled with Jay Cutler laughing out loud with Jaguars after the Broncos loss.

23. In the tradition of baseball egomaniac Gary “Camera” Carter, when Shawn Merriman paid his respects to Brett Favre after the game Sunday, he made sure to turn towards the nearby scrum of photographers when he did so.

24. Since the start of last season, only two NFL teams have allowed more than two special teams returns for touchdowns. The St. Louis Rams have allowed three special teams returns for TD’s. The world-champion Indianapolis Colts have permitted five touchdowns (one punt returns and four kickoff returns). That’s something Tony Dungy and his special teams coach Russ Purnell really need to shore up.

25. Fox Sports Radio’s Steve Czaban is a DC guy, and covers the Redskins closely, including when Norv Turner was coach. He’s said for years that Turner is a great offensive designer and strategist, but lacks the leadership skills required of a top head coach. Is it out of the realm of possibility that the Chargers will just fall apart?

12 fully analyzed games with pointspread projections are waiting for you when you subscribe to the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. These plays went 8-3-1 against the pointspread last week. The Max goes for about $7 per week when you subscribe by calling 1-770-649-1078. It will be emailed to you immediately upon your order.

Both Cal and Oregon have some defensive liabilities. Oregon gave up over 300 yards rushing to Houston in their opener and my colleague Dave Fobare pointed out in my Max newsletter that In my Max newsletter this week, my colleague Dave Fobare points out that Oregon allowed Michigan 215 yards in their first 25 plays from scrimmage before the Wolverines essentially gave up.

Cal’s defense has performed somewhat better but of their three defensive starters who missed last week’s game with injury, only LB Matt Malele has a chance to return this week.

More on this game in our Top 25 column later today.

My usual Friday morning spot on a great many of the 290 affiliates of Fox Sports Radio will be an hour early this week, so listen in on XM 142 or one of their local stations at 7:10AM Eastern Time. “First Team on Fox” host Steve Czaban’s web site should be on your list of places to visit. Small world department: Czabe’s talented sidekick Scott Linn’s kids have play dates with the kids of a fraternity brother of mine. But you could have gotten by without knowing that, couldn’t you?

Those of you in Las Vegas and elsewhere who complain that you can’t hear Marc Lawrence’s Against the Spread program anymore in your local markets should listen in online. I believe that’s up by Thursday afternoon each week. Same cast of characters on that show this year, with handicapping stalwart Marc Lawrence, hard-working totals specialist Victor King, and the legendary Jack Reynolds piloting the ship.

I’ll be on a couple of other programs this week as well. I’ll be doing an online interview with Jon Spevack tonight at 10:30PM Eastern. I sound tired, it is because I will be. Jon works on Pacific Time, so since he’s screwing with my body clock I’ll call him at 5:00AM Pacific Time and act all befuddled that he’s groggy. “You’re still asleep? I’ve already worked out, had breakfast, and read all the newspapers that cover the NFC Central. What are you doing sleeping your day away, Jon?” Actually he was kind enough to move it up a half-hour from his planned time. Again, that’s 10:30PM Eastern, 7:30 Pacific.

Then on Thursday at 5:30 PM Eastern Time I’ll be a guest for a half hour with John Kelly on the Leroy’s Sports Hour. John is billing the show as “Steele and O’Neill” hour, so listen in 30 minutes earlier than that if you want to hear Phil Steele’s half hour. You can listen online here or you Nevadans can listen on 630AM KPLY in Reno or 1460AM KENO in Vegas at 2:30 Pacific Time.

I think that’s it. I’ll try to keep you apprised of what other shows I’m on if time permits (my spot on a show in Miami last week was kind of last minute).

In their 31-28 win over the Dolphins, the Jets were outgained by a seemingly dominant margin, 7.2 yards per play to 4.3 yards per play (424-256 in raw yardage). Much of the yardage occurred during garbage time, but even with a 31-13 lead, the Jets were being outgained 260-228. The Jets did benefit from a kickoff return for a TD, and importantly, they made their yardage count. Their two TD and two field goal drives totaled 243 yards. So they did absolutely nothing (13 yards) offensively other than their four scoring drives.

The Jets scoring drives totaled 95% of their total yards, which might be an interesting stat to judge efficiency. The Jets needed to gain only 8.25 yards for every point scored, a phenomenally efficient game for the New Yorkers. Not surprisingly, they didn’t turn the ball over. A return for a TD combined with no turnovers must lead to a pretty gaudy winning percentage.

A couple of other games where the losers outgained the winners by notable margins:

Bengals outgain Seahawks 412-340 but lose due to 4 turnovers.

Falcons outgain Panthers 442-313 but lose. Culprit for Atlanta was a 2-0 turnover disadvantage combined with a meathead at cornerback.

It will be interesting to see if these inefficient teams can turn it around or if they are just sloppy ballclubs destined to underperform their yardage numbers.

Favorites struggled in the NFL, going 5-9-2 (calling Texans, Bengals underdog covers, games hosted by the Jets and Chiefs pushes). Overs went 10-6, calling Giants/Redskins an under. With numerous games landing close to the number, your mileage may vary.

The Tim Donaghy story seems to be back in the news.

And we have some lingering questions about the restrictions placed on NBA officials.

According to the New York Times, NBA policy states that refs are not allowed to visit or attend “any racetrack, off-track betting establishment, casino or gambling establishment of any kind.”

So do officials have to pitch tents when they’re in Vegas for Olympic basketball competition, NBA Summer League, or last year’s NBA All Star Game? Or is the policy serve as a guaranteed upgrade to the Four Seasons, the lone Vegas hotel without any gambling?

The Times continues, “During the off-season, referees are permitted to bet at racetracks or attend shows at casinos, as long as they do not enter a casino gaming area.”

But are refs allowed to bet on the horses in the simulcast center of a casino? Are they allowed to attend racetracks that have slots, video poker, or poker, which likely make up the majority of horse tracks these days?

Seems like an outdated policy in today’s racino envirnoment.

Why are the refs banned from being in a casino? You want to see outrage, give the players the same restrictions. Point guards are in a better position to fix a game than the refs are. How about positional breakdowns? My suggestion: point guards have to follow the same rules as the refs but centers can do what they please.

The Syracuse Orangemen (not Orange, as a Syracuse grad I’m grandfathered, no matter what strings puppet master Nike pulls in the athletic department) pulled off the biggest pointspread upset in modern college football history on Saturday. Syracuse did everything they could to give the game away in the final six minutes, as two fumbles by otherwise flawless QB Andrew Robinson (4 TD passes, no interceptions, 16.2 yards per attempt) led to Louisville TD, but when the clock finally ran out in nearly empty Papa John’s Stadium, Syracuse had the improbable win.

The most common number on this game was Louisville –37½, though the Golden Nugget and Hilton closed 38 and Pinnacle had it at 38½ Saturday morning. No favorite of more than 36 points had ever lost a game before. The previous largest pointspread upset was a win by 36-point underdog Oregon State over Washington in 1985.

Though this is the largest pointspread upset, it isn’t the most surprising upset. We’ll still have to give that to 0-6 Temple’s win over 5-0 Virginia Tech as 35-point dogs in 1998. Doing a little oddsmaker math, the total in that game probably hovered around 41, suggesting a projected 38-3 result for the Hokies, so Virginia Tech was expected to score 92.6% of the points in that game. With a total of 65, Louisville was expected to win by about 51-14 on Saturday, so they were expected to score 78.4% of the games points. The higher pointspread was the result of higher expected scoring, not necessarily a higher likelihood that they would win the game outright.

Louisville was decidedly more susceptible to an upset by a bad team than that Virginia Tech team was. Tech entered the ’98 Temple game at 5-0, outscoring a tough schedule 146-30. Remember just a couple of weeks ago the Cardinals permitted a Middle Tennessee State team with only 7 healthy offensive linemen (3 starters injured) to score 35 points in the first half, though the Cards eventually won the game. And MTSU fell to 0-4 with a loss to Western Kentucky this week. The ‘ville entered Saturday’s game as the 92nd ranked defense in 1-A, allowing opponents 428 yards per game. Five Louisville defenders have been drafted the past two years, and defensive talent is clearly at a low ebb. It certainly is no surprise that the Cards would have trouble getting off the mat after a gutbusting loss to Kentucky the previous week. So Louisville hardly has the resume that leaves one absolutely floored that they would lose a game.

But clearly this was a monumental upset for a Syracuse team who, along with Temple was the only team in 1-A to average less than 270 yards of offense in each of the past two years. Syracuse then started 0-3 this season, getting sandblasted by three teams that had losing records last year by an average of 39-11 on average yardage of 453-199.

Historical note for Syracuse fans: SU was a 24-point dog when they shocked Nebraska 17-9 at the Carrier Dome in 1984.

Tough day for Ralph Friedgen. Maryland people quietly believed that they were poised for a big season, but their conference opener was a disaster. With less than 90 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter, the Terps had the ball on the Wake 3 with a 24-3 lead. Jordan Steffy proceeded to have an interception returned the length of the field for a TD and Wake Forest somehow stormed back to win 31-24 in overtime. From the start of the 4th quarter until the end of overtime, Maryland had 1 yard of offense. Steffy was horrible down the stretch, both in execution and making decisions. Throughout his career Friedgen has been a master at developing quarterbacks. His inability to do so the last few years is baffling.

Favorites and dogs split pretty equally this weekend, with favorites going 25-23. Overs were marginally profitable heading into the weekend and crushed, going 33-15. Reports of the Pac Ten’s defensive resurgence appear to be exaggerated, as that loop went 4-1 to the over. Pac Ten games had point totals of 61 (which snuck under in the USC/Wazzou game), 72, 75, 76, and 86. All five Pac Ten favorites covered, meaning that favorites and overs combined to go 9-1. Saturday was a square’s dream out west.

You know we barely advertise here, so please allow us this commercial announcement. Our newsletter Kevin O’Neill’s Maximum Profit Football Weekly broke out of our recent college funk with a 5-2 mark this week. Our late week work was highly productive, as our Strategic Sports Publishing phone service rocked with a 4-0 mark (Georgia Bulldogs, Connecticut Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks, Iowa Hawkeyes). We’re documented by the Sports Monitor as hitting the colleges at over a 60% rate over the past four seasons in college, and now enter what has been the strongest time of the year for our brand of statistical analysis. To subscribe to “The Max”, our late phones, or simply to ask questions call 1-770-649-1078.

Those of you who want to get on our free email list for selections and analysis, visit www.FootballAnnual.com to take care of that. Though we’re still a few weeks into the season, you’d likely still find the Football Annual offered there for free to be of value.

Check back on Monday for some NFL notes. Have a great Sunday.

25 observations from the football wagering world.

1. There have been a number of teams that have surprised me, both positively, and negatively, this college football season. But none more than Florida. The Gators had seven players taken in the NFL draft and I expected their defense to be down significantly. But they appear to only be down moderately, and that offense can make up for a the occasional defensive lapses that are come with inexperience. Remember that Florida had a lot of playmakers that were banged up heading into the rout of Tennessee. Percy Harvin didn’t look dinged up to me.

2. I expected Oklahoma State would be pretty good, yet Bobby Reid has been replaced at QB, their new defense is worse than the old, and their blowout losses to Georgia and Troy are made even uglier by the fact that neither the Bulldogs nor the Trojans have done anything notable otherwise.

3. Troy’s rout of Okie State kicked off a huge week for Sun Belt football (there’s a phrase that’s never been uttered before). Florida Atlantic enjoyed a 7-0 turnover edge in their field goal win over Minnesota, while Arkansas State waxed SMU 45-28.

4. I was a little negative on Boston College heading into the season and have been proven wrong. Some people I respect in college football weren’t sure Jeff Jagodzinski would be a good fit as a college head coach, and there were spring practice (new offensive line coach quits) and fall practice (offensive line looked like a disaster) problems. But 3-0 in conference play looks like a good fit to me. Steve Logan, always creative offensively at East Carolina, put his NFL Europe coaching experience to good use as his charges were more than ready for Jon Tenuta’s zone blitzes, usually so problematic for opponents of Georgia Tech.

5. BC doesn’t have another conference game until October 25th. They’re already 3-0 in conference play and they’re now as good as 7-0, as their next four outings are home games against Army, Massachusetts, Bowling Green, and a trip to Notre Dame.

6. Conversely, six teams in the Pac Ten have nothing but conference games remaining. The only exceptions in that conference are USC, Stanford, and UCLA’s games with Notre Dame (lucky them) and Washington taking advantage of the 13th game for visitors to Hawaii. The Pac Ten plays a full round robin schedule, the only major conference other than the Big East (which has only 8 teams) to do so.

7. I expected Notre Dame would be down but I didn’t expect this. No offense TD’s since the 2nd quarter of the Sugar Bowl. There has been no production at all out of players recruited by Charlie Weis.

8. Top 5 teams all covered the spread last weekend in college football. Mostly by large margins.

9. Arkansas’ injury problems go deeper than Marcus Monk, who is back at practice but unlikely to play this weekend. Ben Cleveland looks to be headed to a redshirt year. The tight end showed some real flashes last year and would have helped make the Hogs attack a little less one-dimensional.

10. South Florida didn’t play Saturday, but Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News dropped USF from No. 10 to No. 17 on his AP ballot after Auburn, who USF upset the previous week, lost to Mississippi State. So you don’t play and you drop 7 spots? Keep in mind this is the poll that is part of the BCS system.

11. Somewhere, Marty Schottenheimer is smiling.

12. I’m no web page usability expert, but the NFL.com redesign is either terrible, or I was just used to the old one.

13.And all those college athletic department websites that were created in partnership with CSTV aren’t any better. I really expected those to improve this year and they’re as unwieldy as when they started.

14. The BBC reports that despite online gambling being legal in Britain, it has not led to an increase in the number of people who gamble.

15 .Maybe the Vikings can be recast as a rugby team. Minnesota is terrific on the ground both offensively and defensively, on a yards per rush basis, they’re outperforming opponents 4.4 to 3.1. That’s similar to last year, where they averaged 4.1 yards per rush on offense while allowing only 2.8. They permitted an incredible 62 rushing yards per game on the ground last year. The problems are through the air. With a 40.2 QB rating after the first two games, Tarvaris Jackson’s 4 interceptions cost them the game on Sunday. He may not play on Sunday due to injury. Minny’s pass defense is ranked 26th in the league, and that includes the opportunity to play against Joey Harrington. Their pass D was last in the league last year. Things look good on the ground in Minnesota, but until they can compete through the air…..

16. Remember that there were people who thought the Falcons would be better off without Michael Vick. Atlanta signed Byron Leftwich, but it is meaningful that Leftwich was on the market for three weeks without much interest.

17. Tom Brady has 12 incomplete passes in the Patriots first two games. 3 of those he threw away. 3 were drops.

18. And you think you’ve made bad investments. Purchased for $16 million, The Green Monkey ran a dull third in a maiden race at Belmont. An unnamed Hall of Fame trainer told Daily Racing Form’s Steve Crist “He’s going to be a maiden a very long time. Actually, I doubt we’ll see him race again.”

19. Even in the computer age, some solid complimentary selection phones still exist. Call Dave Fobare’s hotline at 1-770-618-8700 for free selections. Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo broadcast their analysis at 1-404-250-7555.

20. What’s Conference USA got against Memphis? The Tigers open conference play on the road for the tenth consecutive year when they visit Central Florida’s new stadium on Saturday.

21. In a court of law, Isaiah Thomas says that white men shouldn’t call women “bitch” and “’ho,” but black guys can.

22. The major media has been slow to pick up on the fact that fantasy football, rotisserie baseball, and the like might get swept up in anti-gambling legislation, but that’s mentioned in this interesting Baltimore Sun commentary.

23. Lost in the carnage of UCLA’s bizarre 44-6 laydown to banged-up-beyond-belief Utah was the fact that it was a rare 50+ point non-cover. UCLA actually took money, and were bet up to be a 15½-point favorite. The whipping occurred 10 days to the week of another UCLA performance, this one the largest cover in history, a 73-point spreadbeater in a 66-3 win at Texas as 10-point dogs 1997.

24. Tank Johnson has signed with the Cowboys. Calvin Hill, Dallas Cowboys Director of Player Babysitting and Life Skills blames hip hop for the problems of so many players.

25. It isn’t a terribly compelling weekend of football. The most attractive college game this week is tough to isolate. The only matchups between Top 25 teams are in the SEC with South Carolina-LSU and Georgia-Alabama. The most attractive NFL game this week is easily the Cowboys and Bears, but that’s the only game between teams who were each in the postseason last year. Oh well, some weeks are just better than others, I guess.

12 fully analyzed games with pointspread projections are waiting for you when you subscribe to the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. The Max goes for about $7 per week when you subscribe by calling 1-770-649-1078.

If you read many of the preseason college football publications this year, you got the sense that both Miami, and especially Florida State, were ready to return to the elite of college football.

Sure, things had gotten ugly the past few seasons. But, each program had reportedly fixed what ailed them. Miami changed head coaches. Florida State kept their head coach but changed seemingly everyone else. Look out world, the ‘Canes and ‘Noles were back!

As Lee Corso would (unfortunately) say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

(He still says that doesn’t he? That mascot head thing, too?)

Through two weeks, the teams are a combined 1-3 ATS, with very sluggish performances on offense.

Miami started its season with a cover against Marshall. But, the offense only gained 341 yards against a team that would allow over 500 to West Virginia a week later. The passing line was just 9-21-1-81, which is far from “big time” in terms of modern college football.

Miami followed that up with a demoralizing 51-13 loss at powerful Oklahoma. The Hurricanes weren’t even tropical depressions, gaining just 139 yards on the afternoon. Through two games, the offense was just 5 of 25 on third down conversions. Clearly, the problems weren’t fixed, and Miami is nowhere near ready to return to the elite of the sport. Oklahoma represents that elite class. Miami was 38 points away when the final gun sounded.

Florida State was a popular wagering team in its season opener at Clemson, as the inexperienced Tigers were supposedly going to be outmatched by the resurgent Seminoles. FSU fell behind 24-3 at the half. A late rally made it respectable. But, how respectable is a loss to an inexperienced team when you go just 3 of 17 on third down conversions and you need a late surge to make it past 200 yards for the game?

The Seminoles supposedly caught the schedule break of all time when lowly UAB went to Tallahassee last week. UAB trailed Michigan State 45-3 at the half of its opening game, and has a very green coaching staff and starting lineup. The team that trailed MSU 45-3 at the half led Florida State 17-10 at the half! The Seminoles ultimately rallied for a 10-point win as a 38-point favorite.

Miami and Florida State fell short of betting marketplace expectations by a combined 55 points last week.

Early returns suggest that these clubs will not be returning to glory any time soon. Both teams still have sluggish offenses that can’t move the ball without committing turnovers. Though the ACC looks weak again, if neither club fixes its offensive problems soon, both are in store for disappointing seasons once again.

Miami was 4-7 ATS last season. Florida State was 4-7 ATS when not playing Miami. The prior year, those numbers were 4-7 ATS and 4-6 ATS. Tossing in this year’s games, Miami and FSU are 17-30 ATS when not playing each other their last 47 regular season board games.

There a pair of predicted resurgences in the sunshine state that don’t appear to be happening. And those who suggest that South Florida is now the second best team in the state have a very defensible argument.

Conniving Belichick, NFL Chalk, and Classy Garden Staters

1. NFL bettors supported 8 favorites enough to promote significant line moves last weekend. Often in the NFL, that’s a recipe for bettors’ disaster, but the Colts, Texans, Steelers, Seahawks, Chargers, and Cowboys all covered, with only the Jags and Niners failing, though those who moved the San Fran line from 3 to 3½ got a push when the Niners won be exactly a field goal.

2. Needless to say, NFL Week 1 wasn’t the best week the bookmakers will see all season, though they had a good Saturday with a number of popular favorites failing to get to expected margins.

3. Waiting for the Bill Belichick/Karl Rove comparisons to begin.

4. Pretty interesting article on old school NFL surveillance.

5. From his statement, it is conceivable that Belichick really thought he wasn’t doing much seriously wrong if they weren’t using the footage from that game to coach in that game. Think about it, why would they have their guy videotaping from the bench? If you were being sneaky, wouldn’t you give the guy a press credential or have him video from the stands?

6. Despite needing a last second field goal to win, the Broncos dominated the Bills. The yardage tally in favor of Denver was 470-184. First downs were 23-13. Broncos missed field goals and a Bills punt return for a TD kept it close. JP Losman is off to a rugged start but if he does, in fact, have a breakout year, Marshawn Lynch will be a very dangerous weapon for Buffalo. He’s fast, strong, and has in a couple of instances followed blocks well.

7. Having an undeserved winner with Buffalo, it was a little harder to complain about the Billick play calling, turnovers, and the unjust offensive pass interference call that cost us our Monday night Ravens play.

8. The Broncos have only a single road game between now and November 4th. Needless to say, they’re then playing 6 or their final 9 on the road to conclude the season. So Denver better build them a nice cushion in the playoff race during that time frame.

9. When you’re betting second halves or in-progress, stuff, you can’t count on the networks to be accurate. The score scroll on the bottom of the Steelers/Browns game had Washington up on Miami 3-0 midway through the 2nd quarter when in fact it was 7-3 Miami in the 3rd quarter.

10. ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli has an interesting comparison of how well Tiki Barber did under Coughlin that makes their feud all the more surprising. Pasquarelli reports:

“In the seven seasons Barber played before Coughlin arrived in 2004, Barber averaged 771.4 rushing yards, 4.5 yards per carry, 1,287 total yards from scrimmage and 5.1 touchdowns. He also fumbled 35 times and lost 17 of those miscues. Under Coughlin’s stewardship, however, Barber averaged 1,680 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry, 2,204 total yards from scrimmage and 10.3 touchdowns. In those three seasons, he fumbled only nine times and lost four of them.”

11. Wired Magazine uses the NBA referee scandal as a lesson in corporate processes, systems, and security (how exciting!) But when the author says, “a single referee can influence a basketball game more than he can in any other sport,” it is clear he’s never noticed the guy in the mask standing behind the catcher on a baseball diamond.

12. In two games SMU has allowed less than 100 yards rushing (92), and more than 1000 yards passing (1074). Playing pass happy Texas Tech and North Texas the Mustangs have seen only 39 running plays against them to 130 pass plays. That’s a lot of plays in two games, with a ton of clock stoppages due to all the passing and the reversion to the old clock rules. Of course, the Mustangs inability to make stops contributes to the number of plays as well.

13. Most kids with a live shot to play in the NFL don’t look at the opportunity and say “I’m not interested.” But Texas A&M linebacker Mark Dodge isn’t a kid. He’s 27 and came to A&M after a stint in the Army. Despite earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors twice last season Dodge is not interested in playing in the NFL. “I don’t want to be that guy with a cane when I’m 35 and not able to pick my kids up,” explains the wise Aggie.

14. As we’ll see when the Big Red people applaud USC as the Trojans enter and leave the field this weekend, it is hard to argue with the contention that Nebraska fans are the classiest in college football. So no surprise that Nebraska fans who bought Wake Forest season tickets to assure themselves a seat at the Huskers/Deacs game have made sure their tickets for the rest of the season go to soldiers at Fort Bragg and organizations such as Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

15. On the other end of the spectrum we have Rutgers fans, previously so incensed with off-color shock-jock comments about their women’s basketball team, chanting, “F#&% you, Navy! F#%& you, Navy!”

Stay classy, New Jersey.

16. Scarlet Knights fans made their way up to the Meadowlands on Sunday, where they cheered an injury to Chad Pennington.

17. The Jets fans cheering the injury to their own player earned them the “Worst Person in the NFL Award” from Keith Olbermann on NBC’s Sunday Night review of the league. We’re supposed to take Olbermann seriously and respect his judgment yet he recently said

“Al Qaeda really hurt us, but not as much as Rupert Murdoch has hurt us, particularly in the case of Fox News. Fox News is worse than Al Qaeda — worse for our society. It’s as dangerous as the Ku Klux Klan ever was.”

I’m no Fox News watcher. I’d rather watch the WNBA than Bill O’Reilly, but in the world does Olbermann not get roasted for cheapening the lives of victims of Al Queda and the Klan for the sake of comparing them with a media outlet that he has disagreements with?

18. Phony college win of the week? Probably Cincinnati’s 34-3 “bludgeoning” of Oregon State. Beavers actually outgained Bearcats 310-229 but Oregon State’s rotating quarterbacks combined for 6 interceptions while Cincy’s careful Ben Mauck (starting QB for Wake Forest before getting hurt in the last year’s opener) threw none. The Bearcats also scored on a blocked punt, as everything broke their way.

19. Notre Dame isn’t just 0-2, they are absolutely dreadful, ranking 119th out of 119 teams in both total offense and rushing offense in the NCAA’s official statistics. Forget where we saw this, but in the Charlie Weis era, only a single touchdown has been scored by a player that Weis recruited. The others have all been by Willingham recruits.

20. Michigan’s got a lot of problems, including having the only defense in all of 1-A that is allowing opponents to average over 245 yards both passing and running. Sure, that’s only over two games, but one of them was to a 1-AA team. Add the true freshman quarterbacks to the problems of both these teams and the fact that the Wolverines all but quit once they got down to Oregon, this is one ugly, hard to handicap game in Ann Arbor on Saturday.

21. Online gambling was debated this week in Business Week.

22. Here a Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial on online gambling. Sports bettors should hope for WTO and EU pressure against the US, as the poker people will sell out sports betting in a heartbeat in any legislation, as the have in the Frank bill.

23. After an opening week in which every NFL game was lined at 7 or lower at one point, there could be five games with double-digit spreads on Sunday.

24. Football’s automatic, but watch your gradings elsewhere. I played a golf match up that was based purely on injury information. It was graded a loser and when I checked it out I saw it was actually a push. Common areas of erroneous gradings are props, quarter bets, horse scratches not accounted for, etc. The more obscure something is, the greater the chance there’s little action on it and it could be misgraded.

25. Injuries can really hurt when they’re at a position that’s weak. Ty Hill is no Pro Bowler, but his injury leaves the already thin Rams even thinner in the defensive backfield.

Good luck this weekend. The Max newsletter has 12 fully analyzed selections and 3 different systems analyzed this week. Subscribe through the end of the season for less than $7 per week by calling 1-770-649-1078.