Should’ve given you earlier notice, but we’ll be talking football this morning with Norm Hitzges, the legendary Dallas sports talk host on 1310 The Ticket. If our conversation goes as usual, Norm and I will cover both college and NFL as we preview 2007 from a pointspread perspective. Listen in live at 11:50AM Eastern (10:50 Central).
When word first hit that an NBA official was involved in a gambling scandal, some suggested that the NBA summer league in Las Vegas should be moved, the Olympic basketball team’s training camps in Las Vegas eliminated, and the possibility of a NBA franchise in Las Vegas negated.
Here’s a typical reaction from Newsday’s Ken Berger, “Here is the first thing Stern must do: Wipe Las Vegas off the NBA map for good.”
A knee-jerk “solution” of eliminating any sporting connection with a city that allows gambling on sporting events is the exact opposite of what the NBA should be doing. On more than one occasion, Las Vegas has raised the red flag on irregular betting patterns that signaled an instance of sports bribery. The most well-known is the Arizona State case in 1993-1994 when sports books in Las Vegas alerted authorities to extraordinarily one-sided wagering in Arizona State’s favor that resulted in the principals being confronted at halftime of a game they were shaving points in.
A quarter century ago some bettors were cleaning up betting unders in Detroit Pistons home games. Nevada sports books alerted the NBA to the wagering patterns and let them know that the clock operator at Pistons home games was letting extra time run off the clock to shorten the game. The NBA investigated, found the allegations to be true, and removed the clock operator in hush-hush fashion.
Just a couple of weeks ago, the fully staffed anti-fraud unit of Betfair, a wagering exchange in London, alerted authorities to extraordinarily peculiar wagering in a tennis match. An investigation has ensued. This appears to be yet another example where a licensed, regulated sports betting firm uncovered suspicious wagering patterns that indicated that something fraudulent was afoot.
The best way to maintain the integrity of sports is not a head in the sand approach. To pretend Las Vegas doesn’t exist and sports wagering isn’t widespread does nothing but guarantee future sports bribery. Betting has taken place for thousands of years and will continue to. Taking sports betting out of the hands of illegal operators and embracing legal sports betting, whether wagers are processed in the US or elsewhere, with the entire process transparent and regulated, is the best way to insure the integrity of sports betting.
NFL injury news can hit you in the head while you’re walking down the street, but the college stuff is tougher to come by. The other day we informed you of some college players who won’t be playing this season for varying reasons. Let’s take a look a number of other guys who won’t be playing. They’re listed in all the football magazines but their status has changed in recent days.
Utah’s Jason Boone, possibly the top offensive tackle in the Mountain West, has been lost for the season with a torn ACL.
NC State’s Anthony Hill, the best tight end in the ACC, is out for the season after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery. The new TE is former QB Marcus Stone, who has bulked up to 250-pounds. Stone was a big recruit out of Pennsylvania who many thought would be the next Phillip Rivers but things just didn’t work out that way. Tom O’Brien calls Stone “by far the most selfless person” on the Pack roster.
Boston College LB and short yardage bowling ball Brian Toal will miss the season with a shoulder injury. Toal has also had neck problems in recent years.
Elsewhere in the ACC, one of Duke’s lone bright spots was LB Tauiliili. The junior was Duke’s leading tackler a year ago after being a freshman All-American in 2005. Drunk driving, weapons, and assault charges have earned Tauiliili a suspension from the football program.
A breakthrough sophomore year was expected from the mercurial LaMarcus Coker at Tennessee. But the Vols leading rusher has been suspended. Reports indicate that it is a drug problem.
Two of Arkansas’ starting receivers suffered injuries in practice this week. TE Ben Cleveland may be just nicked up. Keep an eye on WR Marcus Monk, a rangy 6-6 wideout who had 50 catches at nearly 20 yards per catch, who appears to be the more seriously injured of the two, though the extent is currently unclear.
Several NFL exhibition games carry 3-point lines this weekend. Which makes today’s lesson well worth paying attention to.
3 is the number in NFL pointspreads. And with good reason. It is by far the most prevalent margin of victory in the NFL. About 15% of all NFL games land on 3. The favorites win by exactly 3 around 9% of the time. And the probability is higher than that when a line is right around 3, indicating a competitive game is expected. 3 must be respected in the NFL. You don’t want to take 2.5, and you don’t want to lay 3.5. And it is often worth buying a half-point when playing games that are at 2.5, 3, or 3.5.
One reason 3 lands so frequently is that teams almost universally play for the tie in the NFL. Forcing overtime is such a given that when the Tampa Bay Bucs went for a 2-point conversion back in 2005, instead of playing to force OT, it was huge news. The “guts” shown by Jon Gruden in the 36-35 win over Washington got widespread play.
The dynamic of playing for a tie is far less existent in the NFL preseason. When scoring a TD to pull to within a point, coaches routinely go for 2-point conversions.
Why? Because they don’t care if they win or lose. They’ve completed their work and just want to get off the field.
Next week we’ll explain why we don’t play NFL preseason games. But if you are playing, don’t get caught up in 3-mania. Buying a half-point to get on or off 3 can be a wise move in the regular season, but it is idiotic to pick up the juice in the exhibition season, when 3 is far less likely to land.
A lot happens in college football during the summertime. Much of it is important, and much of it takes place after the magazines go to press. Guys are arrested, flunk out of school, get hurt, decide to transfer, and a million other things that keep them from playing. Being aware of those kind of issues is important, especially in the colleges (there’s no real informational edge to be had in the NFL, as everyone knows everything.)
An incomplete list of the missing players that you should be aware of….
Paul Oliver, the All-SEC Georgia cornerback is listed in some magazines despite his career coming to a close for academic reasons on May 17. Look for him in the San Diego Chargers defensive backfield this fall.
Oklahoma State wide receiver Artrell Woods (no relation to Raushaun and D’Juan, the brothers who played the same position at OSU) was a pass-catching revelation in Oklahoma State’s spring practice. But he may never play football again after a horrific weight training injury in July that left him temporarily paralyzed. He’s recovering well and hopefully he’ll be back someday, but QB Bobby Reid has one less weapon to be excited about.
Junior tight end Tom Ferron, Syracuse’s leading receiver last season, quit the team, citing a lagging interest in playing football. With all the quarterbacks on the roster having thrown a combined total of 8 passes in their college careers, this could be a significant loss for the Orangemen. Incidentally, of those five of the scholarship quarterbacks, all five are either true freshmen or true sophomores.
Offensive tackle Jared Gaither was poised to anchor the Maryland offensive line this season, but the 6-9, 350-pounder is instead making a strong showing in Baltimore Ravens camp. Like Georgia’s Oliver, Gaither entered the NFL supplemental draft after flunking out of school. That’s a big blow for the Terps, who have struggled at the quarterback position in recent years, with protection being one of the issues. Maryland certainly would have benefited from Gaither meeting his enormous potential.
Cincinnati Bearcats defensive end Trevor Anderson, honored by the program as their defensive lineman of the year last season, has left UC. He had his eye toward following his former coach Mark D’Antonio to Michigan State but the new Bearcat staff won’t give him his release.
Oregon State’s special teams were significant blows when Coye Francies’ legal troubles led to the cornerback being booted from the program and punter Kyle Loomis quitting the team. Some Beavers show promise bringing back kicks but the punting ranks are pretty empty. Coach Mike Riley accepted a walk-on punter sight-unseen. Special teams, expected to be a strength, are now a big question mark for OSU.
The magazines have all the players above listed as key cogs in their respective programs. But none will be suiting up this year. Time precludes us from giving you a more complete list, but a college football roster is a very fluid thing at this time of year. If you want to have your best opinion heading into the season, you must be aware of the roster changes from the past couple of months.
In the internet age, are their still bettors getting their pointspreads out of the newspaper? I was under the impression that spreads in the paper were a service to the non-betting reader who simply wanted to see what the betting markets thought of the game he was watching on TV. But apparently, a fair amount of hand-wringing goes on among certain newspaper folks over the inclusion of the line in the daily paper.
The arguments brought forth are fairly simplistic, and one would think that the weekly invasion of Las Vegas by tens of thousands of Southern Californians would make the publishing of the pointspreads a public service in Los Angeles. If papers took a moral stand against publishing pointspreads due to the unintended consequence of luring people into a potentially addictive habit, wouldn’t lottery results and wine reviews need to get the axe as well?
We’re doing a lot of college football research right now, but two of the more offbeat things we’ve found in our work are of little value but great interest. They involve athletes who appeared as though they might be headed to Mountain West outposts, but are now elsewhere.
Oregon State doesn’t have the services of Una Smiley, as the junior college recruit is recovering from gunshot wounds he received in an incident in a strip club on his recruiting visit to New Mexico. Here’s guessing the players hosting Smiley on his visit to New Mexico didn’t follow coach Rocky Long’s instructions to the letter in entertaining the defensive lineman.
New Michigan head coach John Beilein stripped Reed Baker of his basketball scholarship when he took over for Tommy Amaker in Ann Arbor. No news there. Coaches, especially new coaches, run off players all the time. But Baker would likely have never been in Ann Arbor and would still be playing for Air Force had his admission to the Academy not been derailed by, of all things, Baker’s peanut allergy. Post-Michigan, Baker will help blaze Florida Gulf Coast University’s path into Division 1 basketball next season.
Will these items help you this football or basketball season? No.
Are they interesting enough to pass along? I think so.
How the schedule shapes up for teams will go a long way toward how they perform in the NFL. Even though the teams play only once a week, travel can really be a burden. It can be especially difficult for the West Coast teams. In August this is certainly something that those of you guys playing season win over/unders should focus on. And pointspread opportunities can appear down the road as well.
With about 75% of the people in the United States living in the Central and Eastern Time Zones, it makes sense that 26 of the 32 NFL teams are in those time zones as well. But it leaves some teams at something of a disadvantage.
The West Coast teams can really pull some difficult travel scenarios. Seattle in particular better take advantage of playing only one road game in a 6-week span in midseason, as the Seahawks close by playing 4 of 6 on the road, including 3 cross-country trips in December to visit the Eagles, the Panthers, and the Falcons. The Seahawks could be a tired team in the postseason if they don’t earn a bye.
Of the East Coast teams, Baltimore in particular draws a tough travel schedule this year, with trips to San Francisco, San Diego, and Seattle (two days before Christmas). Divisional schedules are supposed to even out, but the Ravens have a far more treacherous schedule than AFC Central rival Pittsburgh, who never hits the Pacific Time Zone but does have games at Denver and Arizona.
What division gets off easy this year? The four teams in the AFC East play a total of only four games outside of the Eastern Time Zone, and none in either the Mountain or Pacific Time Zones. The Jets play at Tennessee and at Dallas. The Dolphins go to Houston and the Patriots visit Dallas. (*oops, see correction below)
The Buffalo Bills? They never have to reset their watches, with all 16 games in the Eastern Time Zone.
Assuming equal injuries, we can expect teams in the AFC East to have a little bit more spring in their step than some of their non-divisional rivals as the season winds down.
****correction: Thanks to Ted Sevransky for the reminder that the Dolphins play their October 28 “home” game with the Giants in London. Though both teams enjoy their bye week following the London game, London is most assuredly outside of the Eastern Time Zone.