A friend of mine in Las Vegas called Thursday night. He was in a room full of festive people, but was not enjoying himself. He was calling from a sports book and held a ticket on Mississippi State +20 in his pocket. With no regards to the fact that they could have had LSU at -17 just a couple of days earlier, the people around him were thrilled with their tickets on LSU -20.

The propensity for the public to play popular favorites and top-ranked teams in TV games week in and week out, year in and year out, is remarkable. But rest assured, as well as that worked out on Thursday, there is no question that by the end of the season, those who bet LSU -20, just a couple of days removed from -16.5, will be net losers by the end of the season. And I have no doubt that my friend, despite being 0-1 after a losing bet on Mississippi State +20, will be a winner.

Sports betting is all about value, and that value is driven by public perception. LSU -16.5 was a good bet on that game. Mississippi State +20 was a good bet on that game. People who made those bets have a good shot at winning this season. But LSU -20 was a colossally bad bet. And going against those kind of “public generated” TV line moves will be winners over the long season.

We’ll discuss this more in the “Maximum Profit Football Weekly” next week. But it isn’t too late for you to order “the Max” for this weekend. There are 6 selections for Saturday football, as well as some system plays. There’s a mix of favorite and dog, and an over/under selection as well. Those 6 selections offer good coverage of some key nationally televised games as well, really the most interesting games on the board. We’ll be in our office Friday night and Saturday morning to take your order for “the Max” at a special preseason discount rate. Call 1-770-649-1078 to get on board.

Good luck this weekend. Have fun and be careful.

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Here’s an interesting editorial in NewsDay about the offshore world. This is becoming a groundswell among opinion makers of different stripes.

We’re knee deep in football. Our newsletter “The Max” has three plays on Thursday night’s card and we just released our first two college late phone plays, the same plays that are 61% against the spread the last three years as documented by The Sports Monitor.

For rates on details on either the newsletter our the Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone service call 1-770-649-1078. Good luck tonight, and be careful.

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Fans and the media tend to underrate the role that luck plays in an NFL season. They all look at the newspaper standings, and figure that the won-lost records pretty much tell the story. A 10-6 team was playoff caliber. A 6-10 team has a lot of work to do to be competitive this year.

That’s not always the case. In fact, every season the offensive and defensive stat rankings help expose teams who are better or worse than the standings make it seem. Here are a few quick examples.

You know the Detroit Lions were bad last year. They finished 3-13 for the season, ranked 22nd in the NFL on offense, and 28th in on defense. There are only 32 teams in the league, so that makes sense. Bad stats, bad record. But, there’s a team that finished 27th on offense and 32nd on defense that finished with a .500 record. There’s another team that finished 26th on both sides of the ball, but posted a 7-9 mark in the standings.

Do you think the stats are going to lift themselves up to match the record this year? Or, do you think the teams are likely to fall back in the standings to match their production?

History makes it clear that it’s usually the latter. Anybody that reached or approached the .500 mark with horrible stats had to be catching a lot of breaks. You just can’t be one of the worst teams on offense, one of the worst on defense, but average overall. Luck really can warp perceptions in a short 16-game season.

For the record, here are the teams matching those earlier numbers:

Detroit: 3-13 record, 22nd on offense, 28th on defense

Tennessee: 8-8 record, 27th on offense, 32nd on defense

San Francisco: 7-9 record, 26th on offense, 26th on defense

Sure the Titans were better after Vince Young took over later in the season. Will Tennessee pull off miracles again this year? Their young talent is going to have to really produce for San Francisco to threaten for the Wildcard, as frequently last year they couldn’t move the ball or stop people.

There just wasn’t that big a difference within this subset of teams last year.

It’s true on the other end of the spectrum too. The New England Patriots just missed going to the Super Bowl after a regular season where they ranked 11th on offense and 6th on defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars finished 10th on offense and 2nd on defense. That’s better in both areas! These teams met each other head-to-head in the next to last week of the season. The game went down to the wire, with the Pats ending up on top 24-21 when the final gun sounded.

So how did these stats translate into wins and losses? New England was a few plays away from the Super Bowl, while Jacksonville finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs

Heading into the 2007 season, you should obviously be thinking of the Jaguars as a bigger threat to do damage than your typical .500 caliber team.

Here’s a brief list of potential reversals of fortune using this sort of statistical analysis:

Nominees to be better in 2007: Jacksonville, Pittsburgh (8-8 despite ranking 7th on offense and 9th on defense), and Dallas (9-7 despite ranking 4th on offense and 13th on defense).

Nominees to be worse in 2007: Tennessee, San Francisco, the NY Jets (10-6 despite ranking 25th on offense and 20th on defense.

Be sure you handicap early season action on how good or bad these teams really are rather than short term illusions from last year’s standings. But a caveat here…

Some teams and coaches tend to outplay their stats, because they are opportunistic, they create turnovers, and they have good special teams. Other teams can look good between the 20’s but the big plays elude them and special teams hurt them. And obviously the personnel changes from year to year, teams age, and young talent matures.

But this form of analysis can give you some food for thought.

We’ll preview some Thursday college football tomorrow. Have a great night.

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Let’s come up through Texas into the Great Plains with some notes on the Big 12.

Though the Texas wide receiver position is banged up, the Longhorns will be fine offensively. But their pass defense was terrible last year, despite having their three senior starters all get drafted. In their last seven games, the Longhorns allowed 15 TD passes, averaging 32 yards apiece. A team with the speed and talent of Texas shouldn’t get burned like that. With Gene Chizik gone to the head job at Iowa State, the new co-defensive coordinator is Larry Mac Duff, the architect of the “Desert Swarm” defenses at Arizona in the early 90’s. He’ll work with Duane Akina, who was co-DC with Chizik and works with the defensive backs.

Having a redshirt quarterback under center worked swimmingly for their archrival last year. And now, Oklahoma’s giving it a try. Sam Bradford is highly thought of, has spectacular talent around him, and after a Week 1 friendly against North Texas, lines up against the formerly fierce Miami Hurricanes in Week 2. A lot of people are back from a team that won this conference despite having to use a quarterback who was a wide receiver until last summer’s suspensions.

Guy Morriss is doing a great job at Baylor. He really is. His 8-25 conference mark is positively sparkling compared to the 4-52 mark the Bears had in Big 12 play when he took the job. But it is going to be tough in Waco this fall. The Bears are potentially entering their opener at TCU (yikes) with a redshirt freshman starting QB who was 5th string when fall practice started. With strong quarterback play unlikely, it will be tough to improve too much on last season’s putrid 2.1 yards per rush. The defense will be better, but they allowed 55 or more in 3 of their last 5 games last fall. Despite all this, Baylor was 3-5 in the Big 12 last fall and Morriss deserves respect for getting this team closer to respectability.

Texas Tech has only 9 starters back. Quarterback Graham Harrell has only a single returning wide receiver, but that might not be a bad thing, considering Coach Mike Leach’s distaste for those playing that position last fall. Maybe we’re too quick to judge coaches when their players misbehave. It is a good point by Mike Leach when he says that in the summer, `you’re not allowed to have a lot of meetings or coach them, yet you’re still ridiculously in charge of their behavior.”

Would Coach Fran’s fate have been sealed if Texas A&M hadn’t held on to beat Army in the closing desperate seconds last season? Their entire season seemed to be spent on the brink. For the Aggies the difference between 4-8 and 12-0 was a matter of inches. Other than a 10-point win over Baylor (which A&M led by 3 until a 64-yard TD run with 2:15 remaining), every A&M conference game was decided by 6 or less. It pretty much evened out for them but you see how the perception of a team can change drastically and immediately.

The inexperience of Oklahoma State’s defensive line will get a lot of play. On the front line you’ll see that there are four new starters. But that’s a bit misleading. Despite the apparent inexperience, defensive end may be a strength, as Marque Fountain and Nathan Peterson not only saw the field a good bit last year, but also combined for 12½ sacks. The defensive players claim they are taking to the increased competition in practice and the more aggressive schemes of new coordinator Tim Beckman. But this unit that gave up between 24 and 36 points to every conference opponent must show their improvement on the field.

With a new coach there’s some excitement at Iowa State, where they’ve sold over 4,000 more season tickets than ever before. Believe it or not, the productive Iowa State Bret Meyer to Todd Blythe passing combination is still on campus. Meyer has started 36 straight games (getting beaten up behind subpar offensive lines) and the rangy Blythe is always a threat to go up and get any ball in the end zone. With 26 career TD receptions, Blythe is already the leader in ISU history in that category.

Nebraska’s excuse of having to implement a new system over the past few years was legit, but Bill Callahan now has his own players and the future is now for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska returns only 10 starters but their recruiting has been outstanding in recent years so those coming in have exhibited some talent. The offensive and defensive lines are both short on experience, but c’mon, this is Nebraska, where they always have fresh beef poised to fill the interior. A lot of highly ranked guys are looking to take over. As expected, Sam Keller has been named the Husker quarterback, and he completed over 59% of his passes with 25 TD’s and 10 INT’s in his time at Arizona State. The inexperience on the lines and some of the question marks (running back) would be more concerning if the Huskers were in another division. In fact, they’d have to play well to get 3rd in the southern division of this conference but the Big 12 North continues to be a less than stellar grouping.

You figure a coach’s son has to be savvy. And a 5-11 quarterback who wins the job as a redshirt freshman has to be making the right decisions. Colorado fans better hope that Cody Hawkins is a savvy, decision-maker, but in fact he was a top-notch recruit who was rated as one of the top quarterbacks in the country out of high school. Bernard Jackson, the Buffs quarterback last year, will be utilized in a “slash” role to take advantage of his athleticism this fall.

Kansas was very close to a big year last year. The Jayhawks were 6-6 and lost twice in OT (at Toledo, at Nebraska), and blew double-digit 4th quarter leads to Texas A&M and Baylor. The schedule works for Kansas this year, as they miss Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. One of the bigger summer surprises in the Big 12 was 5-11 Todd Reesing beating out 6-3 prototype Kerry Meier. Meier has been hobbled with an undisclosed injury that cost him some practices during camp.

Missouri benefits from Kansas giving up home field advantage for their home game against Missouri to profit from a move to Arrowhead Stadium, a true neutral site. Chase Daniel is a terrific quarterback, but the Tigers must prove they aren’t the Minnesota of the Big 12. After starting 4-1, 5-2, and 6-0 the last three years, they’ve closed the regular season 1-3 both straight up and against the spread all three of those years.

Kansas State hasn’t had a great fall camp, with players leaving the program and 2nd leading returning receiver TE Rashaad Norwood getting arrested at 3:15AM for trying to break into an ex-girlfriends apartment and then after being released getting arrested at 6:15AM for doing the same exact thing. Norwood has been suspended from the program by Coach Ron Prince.

Hope you picked up something useful here. The first issue of our newsletter “The Max” goes out Monday night. Call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe.

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Little attention has been paid to the United States not complying with World Trade Organization rulings in regards to online gambling.

This article in the New York Times sheds some light on the situation.

Antigua has legitimately suffered greatly from the anti-gambling legislation of the US government. There is significant pressure against the US in the international community right now and a key may be this passage.

“Yet another reason the fraternity of trade lawyers and experts are so closely watching the case, Mr. Van Den Hende said, is “that the U.S. is not behaving as one would expect.”

“One day they’re out there saying how scandalous it is that China doesn’t respect W.T.O. decisions,” he said. “But then the next day there’s a dispute that doesn’t go their way and their attitude is: The decision is completely wrong, these judges don’t know what they’re doing, why should we comply?”

If Antigua decides to not recognize US copyright and intellectual property law, this thing could get hairy in a real hurry.

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The Pac Ten is very strong at quarterback. Not only are 8 of the 9 QB’s who threw 200 passes or more returning, but only Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington breaking in new starters. Here are some nuggets from around the conference, with the teams represented in no particular order.

Dennis Dixon of Oregon is a little bit of a mixed bag. He and Josh Booty were the only QB’s in the league to complete more than 61% of their passes. But Dixon threw only 12 TD passes to go with 14 interceptions. He has excellent mobility, getting sacked only 5 times (once every 64.4 pass attempts). He finished the season weakly and his coaches were disappointed that he played minor league baseball this summer instead of spending time on campus with his teammates. Dixon loses offensive coordinator Gary Crowton, now of LSU. The defense gave up 30 points or more in 7 of their 13 games last year but should be significantly improved.

UCLA returns almost everybody. QB Ben Olsen started the season as the #1 guy last year and the team was 4-1 in games he started. After Olsen got hurt, Patrick Cowan put up inferior numbers and the team lost his first three starts though he did win the hearts of Bruins everywhere by helping to engineer the colossal upset of USC. Assistant Eric Scott has been credited with helping UCLA score some meaningful recruiting wins in the rugged neighborhoods of South Central Los Angeles. When Scott was arrested this summer a past criminal record came to light. Scott’s previous transgressions occurred when he was an assistant coach at Crenshaw High for seven years. Think any conference opponents who have lost recruiting battles in LA to Scott might have calls in to the NCAA? Charges did not follow in the arrest of Scott because “witnesses and victims were either unavailable or uncooperative”.

The Washington Huskies will be led by Jake Locker, a redshirt freshman quarterback who was a big time recruiting win for Ty Willingham and his staff. Locker will be throwing to a senior-dominated receiving corps that has largely underachieved during their time in Seattle. With the strength of the Pac Ten and non-conference games against Boise State, Ohio State, and Hawaii, Washington has one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Word out of Texas Tech camp is that the Red Raiders miss former offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. Dykes moved to Arizona in the offseason, where he is spreading the field and expecting the rushing attack to thrive with the resultant open spaces. Willie Tuitama has shown flashes of brilliance, but has had multiple concussions, so let’s hope he remains injury free this season. Arizona fans putting heat on Mike Stoops forget that this team hasn’t had a winning record in conference play for 8 straight years and that a complete rebuilding job was necessary after the John Mackovic disaster. After a year where they were bowl eligible but with no place to go and enjoyed wins over BYU, Cal, and Oregon, look for Arizona to bowl for the first time since a Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska following the 1998 campaign.

His botched handling of the Keller/Carpenter quarterback situation and 21-28-conference record has Dirk Koetter out and Dennis Erickson in at Arizona State. Look for more of a willingness to hit on the defensive side of the ball for the Sun Devils. Obviously Rudy Carpenter needs to be protected a lot better and make better decisions, as he was sacked 37 times last year (332 pass attempts). ASU returns almost their entire offense and with the coaching enhancement and clever scheduling (8 home games) should make a move forward this season.

Washington State went to consecutive Rose and Holiday Bowls earlier this decade, but haven’t had a winning season in the last three, going 8-17 in conference play during that time. Alex Brink gets very little respect for a guy who completed over 60% of his passes with 19 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. The defense returns only 5 starters to a unit that gave up 82 points in their last two conference games, allowing Arizona State and Washington to notch conference season highs.

Sammy Stroughter, the Oregon State wide receiver who teamed with Matt Moore for 74 catches at 17.5 yards per attempt last year has left the team due to grief issues. He lost two close family members and a former coach recently and couldn’t focus on football. From a football standpoint, Oregon State’s apparently strong special teams needs a whole new cast of characters. Stroughter returned three punts for TD’s last year. As we reported on August 7th, punt returner Coye Francies had been booted off the team and punter Kyle Loomis had left. Unaware that OSU had already lost Francies and Loomis, ESPN ranked them as a Top 5 special teams unit on their web site this week, listing both as active members of the Beavers.

Is it a good thing that Stanford returns 8 offensive starters? They averaged 11 points per game and were equally pathetic running and passing, as they averaged 2.1 yards per rush while allowing an ungodly 50 sacks. The defense allowed 30 or more points in 9 of 12 games. No wonder Jim Harbaugh is spending his time throwing bombs at his alma mater and Pete Carroll rather than talking about his club.

Cal’s Nate Longshore is more impressive statistically than he is visually, as he seems awkward at times but makes up for it with his arm strength. But that perspective could be based on Longshore playing hurt frequently the past couple of seasons. Cal couldn’t man up with Tennessee last year (that game was 35-3 before garbage time broke out), but open against a potentially lesser band of Volunteers, who have personnel issues at the skill positions.

Finally, do you really need information on USC? Just turn on your TV or pay attention to LSU Coach Les Miles. OK, let’s dig deep. The pointspread caught up with USC after a 29-7 run to the number that ended after they started the ’05 campaign by covering their first three games. Last fall when Oregon State beat the Trojans to end their 27-game conference winning streak, it took the Men of Troy to only 5-13 against the spread in their previous 18 games. This season, USC’s November 3rd homecoming game against Oregon State is their only home game in a 47-day span during which they play 4 of 5 on the road and enjoy a week off before the December 1st Coliseum matchup with UCLA. Road games against Nebraska and Notre Dame make for an aggressive non-conference schedule.

That’s the Pac Ten for you. We’ll continue to make our way around the BCS in our next report.

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Let’s see what we can uncover in the Big Ten, with the teams listed in no particular order.

A decade ago did Michigan Coach Lloyd Carr even know the name of any high schoolers at this time of the year? Running back Christian Wilson of the Pennsylvania is the Wolverines 14th commitment for 2008’s freshman class. So much for rumors of Carr’s departure hurting recruiting. As if they don’t have enough built-in advantages, UM plays 6 of their first 7 games at home on their way to enjoying 8 of 12 contests in the Big House.

New quarterback Jake Christensen needs all the help he can get, so this isn’t good. Iowa’s leading wide receiver as a freshman last year (both in receptions and yards), Dominique Douglas has been suspended for credit card fraud. Teammate Anthony Bowman, another receiver, was also arrested. Both players are from Detroit (surprise, surprise). Meanwhile, Christensen’s backup, Arvell Nelson, has a warrant out for his arrest for failing to appear in court on a traffic charge. Iowa catches a huge break by missing both Michigan and Ohio State this season.

Illinois is a very, very popular choice to be an “up and coming” team with a lot of young talent. I considered them as a go with team for (get your free copy now) The Maximum Profit Football Annual. But they may still be a year away, Juice Williams completed fewer than 40% of his passes last season, and Ron Zook is far from a proven game coach.

Minnesota’s Tim Brewster is doing a lot of experimentation with personnel in practice. The Gophers have 14 returning starters, but they have a lot of new things to learn. Bryan Cupito is gone, but Amir Pinnix is back, along with his 1200+ rushing yards. The offensive line is also a veteran group, but they’re learning a new system. Redshirt freshman Adam Weber is the likely starter but the coach’s true freshman son was a top Colorado prep quarterback and could be the school’s quarterback of the future.

Penn State caught a break when safety Anthony Scirrotto, All-Conference as a sophomore last fall, had 5 of 7 charges against him dismissed stemming from his involvement in a wild April Fool’s Day brawl off-campus.

Indiana will be playing with a lot of emotion for their former coach Terry Hoeppner, who succumbed to brain cancer in June. The Hoosiers have some skill position talent and a friendly schedule (no Michigan, no Ohio State) could have them in a bowl game for the first time since 1993. “Play 13” is realistic for a club with a friendly schedule of no Michigan, no Ohio State, 1-AA Indiana State and three MAC teams.

Those summarily dismissing the chances of Ohio State should consider that the Buckeyes return 7 of the top 10 tacklers to a defense that allowed less than 8 points per game before getting lit up by Michigan and Florida in their final two games. And while there are obviously a lot of skill position people to replace, the offense will have plenty of experience by the time they face Penn State (game 9), Wisconsin (game 10), and Michigan (game 12). With that backloaded schedule and all the future starts they have entering the lineup…..

Northwestern is seeing some spirited competition at the quarterback position. After tragedy forced Pat Fitzgerald to take over after spring practice last season, things are much more favorable for the Wildcats as they approach the 2007 campaign. Not only do they return 15 starters, but Wisconsin and Penn State are avoided in conference play. With the experience and a breezy non-conference schedule (Northeastern, Nevada, Duke, Eastern Michigan), Northwestern doesn’t have to improve a ton to go bowling.

Implementing new schemes both offensively and defensively, Michigan State will struggle at times this fall. But it legitimately seems as though they club has bought into Mark Dantonio’s discipline and accountability as part of the mix, which so often seemed to be missing under John L. Smith.

Joe Tiller’s defense didn’t do anything well last year (allowed the most passing first downs in 1-A, and 4.9 yards per rush). In particular, the secondary has been a disaster for Purdue the past couple of years. But they’re a lot more experienced this year, as is the entire defense, and the entire team. With 17 returning starters, Purdue seems poised for a move up. Of course, two years ago the Boilermakers had 18 starters back, including all 11 on defense, and could manage only a 5-6 record. That was the only year in the past decade that Purdue didn’t reach a bowl. But with a 20-17 mark the past three years, there is some impatience with Joe Tiller in West Lafayette.

Bret Bielema led his team to a surprising 12-1 mark in his first year as head coach at Wisconsin. And the Badgers are sure to miss All-Everything offensive tackle Joe Thomas. But will they miss much else? Believe it or not, Thomas was the only Badger drafted. There was far from a talent exodous from this 12-1 team. But Bucky has as tough a schedule as anyone in the conference, missing only Purdue and Northwestern and road tripping to both Penn State and Ohio State.

We’ll head out west to the rock solid Pacific Ten for our next report.

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Let’s check out the August happenings in the Big East.

One sign that Rutgers didn’t expect to be this good at this point is this year’s schedule. Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State (Norfolk State?), and Army join Maryland on the Scarlet Knights non-conference slate. And Navy probably wasn’t any good when this schedule was put together. The breezy schedule is no concern to the fawning local media, however.

No surprise, but UConn’s Randy Edsall has named Tyler Lorenzen as the Huskies quarterback. Lorenzen, a junior college transfer, hopes to shore up a position that has been in a state of flux since Dan Orlovsky helped lead the Huskies to brief semi-prominence.

The zone blocking schemes of Alex Gibbs disciple Rick Trickett helped West Virginia’s backfield look even faster than they were, but the Mountaineers may feel the loss of Trickett, who took a lucrative position at Florida State. More on him later this week. Their new line coach, Greg Frey, was the offensive line coach at conference rival South Florida, serving on the USF staff for the last 11 years.

The snakebit Syracuse program suffered another blow when promising freshman Jermaine Pierce, had to end his football career due to previously undiagnosed blood clotting issues. Veteran Syracuse Post-Standard beat writer Donnie Webb observed that Pierce was “physically the best looking linebacker to set foot on campus in my 19 seasons covering the team.”

Ben Mauk looks to have unseated Dustin Grutza as starting QB at Cincinnati. Mauk should be better prepared than most to handle the awkward relationship he is sure to have with Grutza, as Mauk lost his starting job to Riley Skinner at Wake Forest, though that was via injury. Falling to backup led to Mauk’s transfer to the Queen City.

You know all about All-American Louisville QB Brian Brohm. But did you know that Hunter Cantwell is the best backup QB in the country according to Rivals.com? And waiting in the wings is Matt Simms, son of Phil and brother of Chris. Simms will redshirt this year and have four years of eligibility remaining.

South Florida has a terrific cornerback tandem, possibly the best in the nation. But the stats can be a bit misleading as to which one is better. Trae Williams had 7 interceptions but a lot of scouts will tell you that even though he only had a single interception, Mike Jenkins is the better prospect. Jenkins had 15 passes defended, although that can be an inflated stat to boost the spirits of a superior player who isn’t getting many interception chances because opponents don’t want to challenge him.

Heralded Pitt true freshman quarterback Pat Bostick has returned to the Panther camp after leaving for personal reasons. Aided by Bostick’s absence, expect junior Bill Stull to win the quarterback job at Pitt.

Our Maximum Profit Football Annual, taking into account a lot of late changes, goes out this Thursday. If you haven’t arranged to get your free copy, visit FootballAnnual.com right now to rectify that situation.

A trip around Big Ten country is in store tomorrow. Talk to you then.

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Deciding where to bet is a more important choice than ever before. But one thing you don’t want to see a sports book doing is raising their hand and yelling, “Hey! You media and government people who are predisposed to dislike sports betting! Look at us!” That’s exactly what 5Dimes is doing by using their willingness to take bets on high school football and Little League baseball games as a marketing and PR tool. 5 Dimes founder “Tony Williams” highlighted his firm’s willingness to accept bets on high school football and Little League World Series games to The Dallas Morning News. Williams said, “if it is on TV, we’re going to put a line on it, whether it is high school football or putt-putt.”

Williams clearly knows that the high school and Little League wagering he offers attracts attention. And the media mentions will attract some business. But at what price? A lot of people attribute the downfall of BetOnSports to inviting attention with audacious marketing like a company RV signing up clients outside of a Tampa Bay Bucs game. Notice that typical sports books that advertised in more traditional venues both online and off are, for the most part, still operating today.

In the current climate, 5 Dimes is crazy to parade their willingness to take bets on high school football. While a prep writer in Dallas makes a case that money-hungry Southlake Carroll High School isn’t a bastion of purity, it really doesn’t matter. Accepting bets on high school football and Little League baseball does nothing but make sports bettors look like a bunch of irresponsible, out of control action junkies.

Note the FBI official quoted in the original story is unsure about the legal status of offshore sports betting. It is still a gray area. There is significant diplomatic pressure on the US government to let these international companies operate and to let Americans trade with them if they wish. And you’ve probably noticed that ESPN and other networks are still taking advertising from the online poker industry.

Online bettors need to make wise choices in the current environment. In trying to discern where the safe places to play are this fall, you won’t see me trusting my money with books whose actions don’t fit with the current realities in their industry. It shouldn’t be lost on smart bettors that in going out of their way to thumb their nose at people who are deciding what the immediate future of online wagering, 5Dimes is not only hurting their own industry, but could well be making themselves a target.

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When John Swofford led a raid on the Big East, the ACC declared themselves the football newest super conference. Despite the protestations of Commissioner Swofford that the ACC is “arguably as deep as any conference in the country” The ACC was just awful last year.

NC State lost to a team from the MAC (Akron) and two from Conference USA (East Carolina and Southern Miss). Virginia also lost to East Carolina, were smoked by a bad Pitt team by 25, lost to Western Michigan from the MAC, and needed overtime to beat Wyoming when the visiting Cowboys kicker missed an extra point. Miami lost at Louisville by 24 and beat Houston at home by a single point. Florida State was tooth and nail as 29-point favorites before eking out a win over Western Michigan. The conference even struggled with 1-AA teams. Winless Duke was shut out by 1-AA Richmond. North Carolina allowed 42 points in squeaking by Furman.

No touchdowns were scored in Wake Forest’s 9-6 win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game, played in front of tens of thousands of empty seats in Jacksonville, a city that no longer wants the game.

How bad was the ACC last year for bettors who supported the conference? They were 13-24-1 against the number in the regular season, meaning that bettors who simply bet against every ACC team in every non-conference game enjoyed a 65% season-long pointspread party.

So the ACC is clearly having problems. It was assumed that with Miami and Virginia Tech added to Florida State, the ACC would be a super-conference. So what happened?

The weakness of the conference starts at the top, or what was supposed to be the top. In the three years of the expanded ACC, Florida State and Miami are both 14-10 in conference play. In the three years before that, those two teams were each 20-1 in their respective conferences, with Miami’s record coming in the Big East, FSU’s in the pre-expansion ACC. Meanwhile, those who were mediocre stayed mediocre.

But that’s all in the rear view mirror and both Florida schools have made significant changes to their coaching staff and still have a lot of talent on campus. Are their reasons to expect the ACC to be better this season than they were last year? The answer is a definitive…maybe.

One indication that the ACC may be on the way back to respectability is the number of players who are coming back this season. Last year this was a very inexperienced conference, only 3 teams had more than 12 starters returning, while this year 10 of the 12 schools have more than 12 starters returning. While last year the average team had 11.7 starters back this year the average team has 14.5 starters back.

With more than 30 additional returning starters compared to last season, this is certainly a more experienced conference. But heading into the season, the quarterback position is a huge question mark throughout most of the conference. Check the NCAA passing stats from last season and look how absent the ACC is. BC’s Matt Ryan is the best returning passer, and he was tied for 19th in passing yardage in the NCAA. And Ryan was only 50th in the NCAA in passing efficiency, with Riley Skinner of Wake Forest ranking highest among ACC passers at 34th. Another indication of the unsettled quarterbacking is the fact that Boston College brought Ryan to the ACC preseason media gathering, while nobody else in the conference brought their quarterback. Maybe by midseason there will be some star quarterbacks in the ACC. But there’s a lot of proving that needs to be done by signal callers this season.

Checking the experience level and quality of quarterbacking in a conference is a good gauge as to see how they will compete against other conferences early this season. The ACC is experienced across the board, but question marks abound at the quarterback position. By analyzing other conferences in a similar manner we’ll all be better prepared when college football kicks off in a couple of weeks.

Our football annual (mailed late to have fresh information) is going out this Thursday. Don’t miss it. Arrange to get your copy at FootballAnnual.com.

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