Let’s kick off 2007 football with some analysis of statistics in the college game.

You’re likely aware of the clock rules in college football last year and the controversy they engendered. The clock started when “instep met leather” on kickoffs, as opposed to when the receiving team got possession of the ball. More importantly, it started immediately after the ball was set on all changes of possession. As a result there were fewer plays in college football games. The median 1-A offense gained 345 yards of total offense per game, down a full 30 yards from the median of 375 yards per game the previous season.

Since these numbers include games against outmanned 1-AA opponents (which is something we avoid in our in-season analysis to avoid being fooled by the statistics of dominant wins in “paycheck games”), the defensive numbers are slightly less. The median defense allowed 335 yards in 2006, down 35 yards from the 370 yards permitted by the median 1-A defense in 2005.

Again, these numbers are a result of the games having fewer plays. We can expect a return to the 2005 numbers, as the clock rules in place for 2006 have been repealed for the 2007 season.

When using statistics as a gauge to measure the improvement and decline of teams, it is important to know that the average per-team total yardage output was about 30 yards less in 2006 when compared to 2005. Ignoring this can throw a monkey wrench in your analysis.

For example, Kansas State allowed 360 yards per game in 2005 and then that dropped down to 346 yards per game. Ordinarily we would look at Kansas State’s defense as having been somewhat improved. But saying that the Wildcat D “improved” from 360 yards allowed to 346 would be a mistake. In fact, they have gone from having a defense roughly 10 yards better than average to having a defense that is about 10 yards worse than average.

Now obviously we’re dealing with pure yardage numbers here, which ignore strength of schedule, injuries, the “shape” of games (running out the clock one week, madly trying to come back the next), and other factors. While raw yardage analysis has weaknesses in all situations, and a more complete and thorough analysis is needed to properly judge the relative strengths of teams, raw yardage numbers should particularly be viewed warily when analyzing the 2006 season in comparison to the 2005 season and when comparing it to the results of the upcoming 2007 season as well.