The online poker community supported Barak Obama’s campaign wholeheartedly during the 2008 election cycle.  Poker-centric blogs sprung up to support the Obama campaign, and it was widely reported that poker pros Phil Ivey and Daniel Negreanu attended an Obama fundraiser in LA.  The affection was mutual. At the star-studded fundraiser, Obama approached Negreanu to talk poker, with Negreanu saying “I think President Obama bodes well for poker players.”

The pro-gambling president has yet to emerge, as last week the Obama Justice Department confiscated $34 million in winnings from payment processors serving as intermediaries between online gambling sites and winning players.

People forget that the first big foray against online gambling was launched by Bill Clinton’s Justice Department back in 1998, when the US, led by Janet Reno moved against a number of offshore gambling operations.  World Sports Exchange founder Jay Cohen was the only one of that group to stand and fight, and he ended up doing a prison sentence for his efforts.  

This shows, once again, that while Republicans show more enthusiasm for fighting online gambling, opposing the activity is a bipartisan effort. 

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Investing in the Preakness: If you like horse racing, and I look  for every opportunity to like horse racing, these are dark days.  So enjoy the Preakness.   After our post-basketball writing vacation, we’ll be back here next week covering a myriad of events in the wagering world.   Those topics will include the sorry state of the former Sports of Kings.  

The Preakness, which has a compelling narrative, is a rare bright day in the horse racing world.  Rachel Alexandra is a great story.  Sure, she beat nothing in the Kentucky Oaks, but she was also asked for nothing.  And it isn’t as though these 3-year old colts are a deep group.   So Rachel Alexandra can win.  But at 6-5 or even money?  Not with a filly facing a ton of pace pressure in a full field of colts.   She may win.  But the narrative and the story line will create very short odds on the filly, which suggests a contrarian look elsewhere. 

Enjoy the Preakness. 

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The sports world is completely focused on the Final Four this weekend, and with good reason.  It’s the culmination of a wonderful spectacle that receives intense interest, even if the dramatic upsets were rare this season.  But as a bettor, the opportunities are limited.  Our customers are much more excited about baseball season.  I’m as excited as any of them.

The reason I’m excited about the possibilities of this baseball season have nothing to do with “sportswriter romanticism” like the crack of the bat or the smell of freshly cut grass.  I have rooting interest in the Braves and the Red Sox, but first and foremost for for me, as well as for our clients, baseball is a financial vehicle.

Confidence Is High: We’re very confident in our baseball totals, and history has taught us to expect them to do well, especially early.  Full disclosure here, I don’t handicap baseball myself, there’s a guy who does it for us. I’ve known him for over a dozen years and have been betting his baseball for at least a decade. We figured out about 6 or 7 years ago that his totals were extraordinary and sides just above average. So we’ve been focusing on these very strong totals ever since.

Thanks to intensive preseason research, and an astute understanding of the sport, our “Baseball Guy” annually starts the campaign ahead of the linemaker, and he’s had some legendary Aprils.  The Sports Monitor confirms that last season our Strategic Sports Publishing late phone service saw us hit well over 57% of our plays and pick up over 24 units of profit.  Unlike those with double, triple, and octuple plays, when we speak of “units” we’re talking about single unit plays.  So that was over 24 net games of profit with all plays rated equally.  And those who follow our baseball know that this was not an atypical year.

Our “Baseball Guy” is not also a basketball guy or a football guy.  He handicaps only baseball totals. Nothing else. No football, baskets, horses, or hockey.  He doesn’t play poker or count cards.  Baseball is the total focus of his wagering world.

He has his own ratings systems and formulas, and knows every pitcher in the league. He analyzes every aspect of the game that influences scoring. He knows a lot of baseball professionals, top-level sabermetricians, and media members, and uses this network to ascertain the true health of pitchers through the long season.  They respect his work and he gets some great information as a result. This aspect of his workflow can not be underestimated.

Matchup Analysis Keys Profits: His daily analysis includes groundball/flyball, power/finesse, and other profiling of pitching style analysis. He does this for every pitcher in the league. He also knows how every lineup hits against every style of pitcher. He knows what players can’t hit groundball pitchers, but light up flyball pitchers. He knows what teams hit finesse pitchers but wilt offensively against power pitchers.  And not just for the starters. He knows about the middle relievers, the setup men, the closers, and how teams hit these guys.  He’s familiar with parks where the ball carries poorly at night, and those where batters don’t see well in the daytime.

His knowledge of the game is very complete.  It is rare for something to get past him.

A Unique Daily Service: Our “totals only” baseball service delivers the following:

• An average of fewer than two plays per day most years. He’s not starved for action, but is not shy. He’ll pass some days and have 3 or 4 plays other days.
• All plays released in the morning via a toll-free recorded voice mail with your own personal code. Call and act on the information at your convenience.
• Annual strong starts like 13-1, 53-29, 18-7, and a 45-25 start last year. This is not a “wait and see” program.  You’ll want to be involved from Day 1 and things will wrap up around Labor Day.

No Gimmicks: There is no vehicle buy these plays by the day or by the week. No “games of the month” or “big play specials.” If it’s hype you want you’ll find it elsewhere.  There are available via a seasonal plan and there is a flexible month-to-month option, with no daily or weekly sales on the web or through the office. Instead of focusing on promotions and marketing, he’s analyzing pitchers, hitters, ballparks, umpires, day/night differentials, and all other factors that influence baseball scoring.

Call 1-770-649-1078 this weekend to receive a special discount on a full-season subscription.  You’ll talk to me personally and if you don’t catch me and leave a message I’ll be the one calling you back, as we do not employ any salesmen.

If you’re interested in profiting over the long baseball season, I know of no better vehicle than our baseball totals program.  Call 1-770-649-1078 to receive that special discount.

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Kobe’s Slump Leads to Storm of Unders: Interesting how a single player can determine a team’s over/under results for a period of time.  If a team’s center is out, some teams start playing more overs, as they don’t have a defensive force in the middle and might play smaller and faster offensively.  An efficient point guard’s absence can obviously lead to more unders.

Less frequent is how a single slumping player can effect results.  Kobe Bryant has been shooting miserably, keying a 1-9 under stretch for the Lakers.   Before shooting 10-18 at Minnesota on Wednesday night, Bryant had shot better than 40% in a game exactly once in his previous 8 outings.  Bryant hit only 63 of 167 shots for a miserable 37.7% from the field in that time period, leading to the surge of unders.

Pointspread Winners and Losers From Across the NBA Strata: As the season winds down, there are both good teams and poor teams that have made their backers money over the season.  The 55-19 Magic and 61-14 Cavs meet tonight, and they have both made a mint for their backers.  Discounting pushes, Orlando is an impressive 47-27 against the spread, while the Cavs are 44-31, very healthy for a team with the game’s most popular superstar.

Of the top-level teams, only Houston (36-38 to the number) and New Orleans (33-40) are below .500 to the spread, though the Lakers and Celtics are dancing around .500

A team doesn’t need to have a stout winning record to be a money maker.  The Knicks, at 29-46, are 43-31 to the number while the 34-41 Bobcats are a stout 46-29 to the pointspread.   But the pointspread is not making up for the ineptitude of a couple of bad teams.  The 17-60 Wizards are 29-45 to the spread, while the 18-57 Clippers are also burning money, with a lousy 30-45 spread mark.

Suns Total Adjustments Not Enough: When Alvin Gentry was hired to put the pace back into the Suns, it was obvious that Phoenix would be playing much higher scoring games.  As a result, the adjustments in totals are at a historic level.  In their last 5 games, the Suns have played teams they also played in November.   In their last outing against Houston, the total was 222, compared to 198.5 in November.  The total against Sacramento was 236 this week, and 202.5 back in November.  Utah has been played twice recently, with the totals 230 and 228.5, compared to 194.5 early in the campaign.  Last week’s game against Portland had a total of 221 compared to 195 for a November joust with the Blazers.

So the totals of the last 5 Suns games have totals that are higher than games against the same teams in November by a total of 152.5, or 30.5 points higher per game.  Alas, the oddsmakers’ adjustments have not been enough, the Suns are 4-1 to the over in those contests, taking them to 16-8 to the over since the hiring of Gentry.

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UConn Scandal: Yahoo! Sports breaks the big news of UConn’s staggering sloppiness in not having untraceable, non-university owned cell phones on which to commit their recruiting violations.  Everyone knows that college hoops recruiting is a “hold your nose” activity, and one can only imagine the Freedom of Information Act requests that have been flying around since Kelvin Sampson’s story broke.  Reading the story begs the question: why weren’t the UConn coaches covering their tracks?  A UConn-friendly agent (a former UConn student manager, actually) steering a troubled recruit to Storrs and alarming frequency of contact with the recruit are the key points here. It is unfathomable that the Huskies, with all their talent, would risk serious sanctions by so boldly breaking NCAA recruiting rules.  The story is meticulously documented, well-crafted, and damning. 

North Dakota State Volunteerism: Led by senior guard Ben Woodside, a 23-point per game scorer who is a potential NBA draft pick, North Dakota State gave Kansas a ballgame last week in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  This week Woodside was back in action, but not on the court.  Rather, he was helping save the homes of strangers threatened by significant spring flooding on the Red River. Woodside, his coach, and teammates joined just about every other able-bodied person in the Fargo area in spending long hours filling and laying sandbags in an effort to minimize flood damage in an impressive display of support for their community. 

There’s a lot of good and bad in the world.  Today’s stories show us that’s the case in college basketball as well.

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Who wins on Saturday to qualify for the Sweet 16?  Let’s take a look at how some of these matchups came to be, which may provide you with some potential ammo for your personal pointspread battles.

1. LSU vs. North Carolina:  LSU’s 75-71 win over Butler was fueled by superior athleticism.  The Tigers frontcourt scored 56 of their 75 points while the backcourt held the Bulldogs to 8-23 from behind the arc.  Obviously that athletic advantage doesn’t apply against UNC.  While Ty Lawson is a “gametime decision” according to Roy Williams, North Carolina media outlets suggest he’ll be playing, as does the double-digit pointspread.

2. Duke vs. Texas:  Duke allowed Binghamton to shoot 53%, but won 86-62 by dominating the free throw stripe (21-1) and rebounding (35-18).   That sort of inside edge is unlikely to be in effect against a Texas team that outrebounded Minnesota 40-29.

3. Texas A&M vs. Connecticut: The Aggies were a remarkable 24-35 on their 2-point field goal attempts as they dominated BYU 79-66.  The Aggies hit 10 straight shots in getting out to a 26-8 lead and they never looked back.  That level of 2-point proficiency won’t be possible against the Thabeet-lead UConn interior D.  The Huskies cakewalked over an outclassed group of Chattanooga Moccasins.

4. Oklahoma vs. Michigan: The Sooners faced no resistance against Morgan State, with Blake Griffin shooting 10-11 from the field and getting body slammed along the way. Michigan benefitted from horrid Clemson shooting.  Effective Wolverines D contributed to the Tigers 21-65 failure from the field, while 3-point marksman Oglesby went 1-8 before an ejection for throwing an elbow.  Clemson’s comeback fell 3-points short.  OU figures to control the glass, as Clemson outrebounded Michigan 40-28.  As always, the Wolverines will be dependent on their 3-point shooting.

5. Purdue vs. Washington.  Purdue jetted out to a 18-8 lead over Northern Iowa but Boilermakers 3-15 3-point shooting didn’t permit them to extend the lead.  Now Boilermakers go from taking on one of the most deliberate teams in the field to one of the most uptempo squads in Washington.  Huskies benefitted by drawing a Mississippi State club that won their 4th game in 4 days on Sunday and then had to travel cross country for the early Thursday tipoff. Line move from pick to Washington -1.5 likely influenced by bettors knowing that the Rose Garden in Portland is a site that favors the Huskies.

All the best to you in your battle against the Vegas and online sportsbooks this weekend.

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Let’s see what we can glean from yesterday’s results that are of interest as you attack local, Vegas, and online sportsbooks on Friday.   Should you let the short sample of yesterday’s results influence your decisions on Friday?  Your call.

1. If you consider Duke to have covered their game, and Gonzaga not to have covered theirs, dogs had a 9-7 edge. Totals favored the over by somewhere in the 11-5, 10-5-1, 10-6 range.  Your mileage may vary.

2. Favorites of 20 or more (Duke, North Carolina, Connecticut, Memphis) were 3-1 against the pointspread and 3-1 to the over.  Both results fly in the face of what usually happens in games with huge favorites in the first round.

3. If you had the Chattanooga/Connecticut game under the total, avert your eyes.   Jim Calhoun’s absence due to illness may have been the difference between the game staying under, or going over late, which is what happened. UConn scored on their last 10 possessions.  According to the play-by-play (admittedly always a little dicey) UConn shot the ball in 10 seconds or less on 7 of those 10 possessions.  If Calhoun is glowering on the sidelines don’t you think the Huskies, up 50 in the closing minutes, are running clock and conserving energy for Saturday instead running, gunning, and padding stats?  This isn’t a complaint, by the way, as I wasn’t involved in that total.  I did have the Morgan State/Oklahoma game under, and found Todd Bozeman’s strategy of fouling in the closing seconds down 26 rather unique.  Of course, I really shouldn’t complain, as I thought long and hard about playing Thursday night’s Blazers/Cavaliers game under before passing. That one went over by a bucket in overtime.

4. Best performance by a conference was the Big 12 going 3-0 straight up and against the spread, with all 3 pointspread covers by (Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M) by double digits. Other noteable performances saw the ACC go 3-1 to the pointspread (considering Duke a cover), while the Big 10 was 1-3.

5. The whole “spend the first weekend of the tournament hanging out with hundreds of sweaty guys we don’t know in Vegas” thing has always been lost on me.  At home I control the TV, the beer is on demand, and I seem to find ways to get bets down.  But for guys who consider online sportsbooks to have been “made illegal”, haven’t had the proper amount of male bonding in their lifetime, or simply are looking for an excuse to ditch the office and family, Vegas is still a popular destination.  But according to a couple of the sweaty bonders who were in touch on Thursday, the crowds are, as expected, a little thinner out there this year.

Good luck to you on Friday, and be careful.

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I projected my Final Four on the ABC affiliate in Providence with ABC6’s Ken Bell. Two lessons learned from the appearance. First, legal and illegal gambling is so ingrained in Rhode Island that made up statistics about Ocean State sports betting ring ever-so-slightly true. Second, don’t let horrible pictures of yourself find their way online, because Google Images is forever.

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Let’s talk tournaments with 5 items of interest, all in college basketball.

1. Teams playing in their home state have a winning record against the pointspread in the NCAA tournament, but Villanova coach Jay Wright made an interesting point this week when he reminded reporters that in Philadelphia a couple of years ago the crowd was rooting for Monmouth to upset the hometown Wildcats.  All the neutrals and out-of-towners were pulling for the upset.   Home court advantage is likely greater in the second round, when losers go home and more tickets free up for local fans who hadn’t donated enough money to their team’s athletic program to have a shot at them the first time around. 

2. The minor tournaments (NIT, CBI, College Insider) all got started last night, with all the home teams favored. For what it’s worth, those home favorites went 6-5-1 against the pointspread.  Power conference teams went 1-4-1 to the pointspread.  For our purposes, we’re calling the UAB vs. ND game a push, though +6.5 was available on UAB at a number of sportsbooks throughout the day while a couple of minutes before the 9PM EDT start -5.5 was available on Notre Dame.

3. The NCAA tourney tipped off (kinda) last night, with Morehead State routing Alabama State 58-43.   MSU opened up a one-point favorite before being bet as high as -3.  The past few years in the play-in game the surge of money has been on the wrong side, but bettors who moved that line last night were correct.

4. Virginia Commonwealth seems to be the bracket buster du jour, and VCU coach Anthony Grant will likely be making a lot more money somewhere else next season (maybe those Georgia players transferring should wait and see who their coach is before jumping ship).  But if you’re picking VCU, make sure it isn’t because of the frequently cited reason that UCLA is ”traveling three time zones east”.  UCLA’s conference tournament was in their home town, they haven’t played since last Saturday, and their game tips off at 9:50 EDT (6:50PM on Bruin body clocks).  If they were fatigued, or had played more than twice in the past 12 days, or if it was a noon game the time zone could be an issue.  If VCU wins it will because they play better than UCLA, not because of the time zone.

5. Rhode Islanders have little need for an online sportsbook, as research shows that 1 of 8 Providence residents live next door to a bookmaker.  As a result of such intense pointspread interest in the Ocean State, I’ll be on ABC 6 News with New England sportscasting legend Ken Bell sharing some tournament thoughts this afternoon at 4:45PM.  So in the unlikely event you’re reading this from Rhode Island, Massachusetts, or Eastern Connecticut, be sure to tune in. 

Sign up for our daily pointspread selections on the NCAA tournament (as well as the other college tourneys) and you’ll get the rest of the NBA regular season for free.  Call me at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details, as well as answers to any questions you may have.

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There’s no better way to enjoy St. Patrick’s Day than with the music of Sharon Shannon, the pinnacle of Irish trad. Celebrate with “Bag of Cats”, which starts nicely and then closes like Silky Sullivan.

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