Obviously, it would be exciting to have a Triple Crown winner, but I’m not rooting for Big Brown tomorrow. The connections make it nearly impossible to consider this horse any kind of “feel good” story.

The Trainer: A few years ago, I was getting some pretty good information from a horse racing source in New York on horses that improved form with no rhyme or reason. The commonality in the selections were a pair of trainers, and one of them was Rick Dutrow. It didn’t take a cynic to suspect that pharmacology helped these horses as much as anything else the trainer could do.

Having been suspended at least once a year in every year of his training career, Dutrow’s reputation for dishonesty is well-earned. With drug use by horses having weakened the breed as well as adding an overriding element of uncertainty and dishonesty to the sport, a trainer with the past (even recent past) of Dutrow doesn’t deserve the honor of training the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

The Owner: Another New Yorker had alerted me to Big Brown’s dishonorable owner a while back, and the media is finally paying attention. David Evans of Bloomberg did a fine job deconstructing the disreputable history and shady aspirations of Big Brown’s owner Michael Iavarone. Investors in Iavarone’s horsey hedge fund should arrange for their certain-to-follow binding arbitration in advance.

I’d love to see a Triple Crown winner. But it would be desirable to have the connections of that winner not leave a nasty trail of slime in their wake as they enter the Big Sandy winner’s circle following a sweep of the Triple Crown.

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One of the things we mentioned in a note on baseball last week was our “totals only” baseball service here at Strategic Sports Publishing. Over/unders are the only way we attack baseball, and our “Baseball Guy” continues to have a great year, now sitting at 58-33 (64.7%) on the season as documented by The Sports Monitor. This week we’re ranked #1 in the industry in the all-important “one-star compare”, which offers a comparison of net units assuming the same amount bet on any play, which is the way we approach things.

Those details about our baseball spurred some questions. Let’s cover the answers for you.

Q. Is your baseball totals handicapper (name removed)?

A. No. My baseball guy is not a public handicapper. He is a close friend of mine who I’ve known since about two weeks after I started publishing sports handicapping material via my first book in 1996. For years now he has handicapped the sport of baseball exclusively and privately for us and us only. He has no other connection with any other service.

Q. As a client, I’ve noticed another service using an awful lot of your baseball guy’s plays. Does he handicap for (name removed)?

A. No, he doesn’t, but his picks do seem to influence some others greatly, don’t they? Our clients retain an advantage, however, as we often influence the line in the first hour after release (9AM Eastern Time). So our clients get these games at better lines than anyone else. I’ve also noticed that our All Sports VIP service is less than the service of others who seem to be…ahem…”influenced” by our Baseball Guy’s plays. So if you want them at the best lines and cost effectively, contact us directly.

Q. Why don’t you play sides?

A. We did play baseball sides for two years, but our profit was tremendous in totals and the sides were not nearly as profitable. Focusing on just totals for the past several years streamlines his workload and enhances his focus. The results speak for themselves.

Q. How do your current customers react to things like your “rest of May free” promotion if they didn’t get a couple of free weeks when they signed up?

A. Our customers have done well with our service and the last thing they’re going to be concerned with is whether or not someone is getting in $100 cheaper than they did. Strategic Sports Publishing is a “long-term relationship” business and not a “buy today’s big winner” outfit. Customers have no problem with us occasionally reaching out to forge new relationships.

Our “rest of May free” promotion continues. Call 1-770-649-1078 for more information. Please leave a message if you get voice mail, as I’m splitting my time between football research and enjoying myself following a productive basketball campaign and I’m not always by the office phone.

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The state of Delaware is considering the addition of a sports wagering component to their state lottery. It would probably be a hideously unfavorable parlay card offering of some sort. Despite the fact that it would only be available in 1954 of the nearly 3,600,000 square miles in the United States, the NFL is coming after this thing guns blazing, with a full page ad in a Delaware newspaper against the proposal.

The Preakness seems a walkover after the performance of Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, but there are a couple of things that might make it worth checking out the past performances on Saturday.

Steve Crist of the Daily Racing Form pointed out earlier in the week that only 6 of the 14 odds-on Preakness favorites in the last 50 years have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Additionally, the seeming overconfidence of Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow before the Derby is gone, and Dutrow seems pretty realistic heading in this race. One of the horse’s owners expects him to bounce off the huge Derby effort. Dutrow admits that Big Brown won’t run as well on two weeks rest, though he does consider him to be the likely winner based on the lack of competition.

It is still tough to see Big Brown getting much of a challenge, but anything could happen, and that’s why they run around the track.

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This is the story about an obscure baseball betting rule, Congress, the resurgence of local bookies, and why it is more important than ever before to understand the betting rules of the sports that you wager on.

I have a guy who handicaps baseball for my customers (totals only, no sides) and he does an excellent job, winning every week this season so far with just about 15 net winners after juice at this point. He called me one night last week to chat. As I wasn’t following the scores, I asked him how we were doing that night.

He was worried about our under in the Twins/ChiSox game, which had gone into extras after being 2-2 in regulation. The game was in the 12th inning with the score 3-3, but was in a rain delay. While we chatted, the game was suspended. “What happens now?” I asked.

He was pretty sure that the ruling would be that the total would stand, but not 100% certain, as it was such a rare situation for a game to rained out while tied in extra innings. Sure enough, a check of the rules and regulations for baseball betting confirmed that we would be credited with a winner.

Here’s the rule. “The following applies for over/under and run line wagering. If a game is called or suspended in extra innings, the score will be determined after the last full inning unless the home team scores to tie, or takes the lead in the bottom half of the inning, in which case the score is determined at the point of the game being called.”

So in this instance, since the score had been 3-3 at the end of the 11th, the winner was the under (as well as +1.5 for run line players). Those who played either the Twins or White Sox would have their wager refunded as “no action”.

But with so many bettors once again playing with local bookies, would bettors playing with Jimmy or Tony (those first names combine to make up over 40% of all local bookes) be properly credited with the win?

Being aware of the rules is more important than ever. Congressional legislation getting in the way of banking relationships between offshore wagering entities and American banks has led to a resurgence of local bookies to fill the void. Bookmakers coast-to-coast who had left the business, or were on the verge of leaving the business, are now serving their local bettors in large numbers once again.

While a legit, reputable, offshore sports book will know how to grade something in unique circumstances, some locals are ignorant of when a game is official for betting purposes and when it a bet is to be “no action”. Other local bookies may understand the rules, but are simply not predisposed to giving the bettor a fair shake unless he asserts himself.

So bettors should always be on top of their daily results, and that is doubly true if they are back to dealing with local bookies, as so many are these days.

Getting back to my baseball guy, after winning his only Thursday play we are now 46-28 (62%+) on the season with our Strategic Sports Publishing over/unders (as documented by The Sports Monitor). The record is even a little better than that for some of us. Why? The plays are released by 9AM EDT every morning, and playing early has many of us with a slightly better record than the current documented mark.

If you’re interested in following these powerful over/under selections you can take advantage of a tremendous offer. Get the rest of May at no charge when you sign up for our month-to-month All Sports VIP service. Call 1-770-649-1078 for details.

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I love the fact that the speed horses have all drawn outside in the Derby, and I’ll be betting against the favored Big Brown. This 20-horse race with huge exotic pools is one you can really justify spreading out in. Let’s take a look at every horse.

In post position order….

1. Cool Coal Man won at Churchill in the fall, but threw in a clunker over the track in the Kentucky Jockey’s Cup. Perfect at Gulfstream, and if you throw out his Bluegrass run over the Polytrack you can make a case for him. Beyers a bit light, but has won three of four from the inside post.

2. Tale of Ekati scored a nice win in the Wood, but is 3 for 3 at Belmont, 0 for 3 elsewhere. Trainer Tagg is great in graded stakes races, with a $2.76 return for every $2 bet.

3. Anak Nakal will be a long, long price, and justifiably so based on recent form. I know a smart guy who gives him a chance, but this horse has been 5th, 7th, and 8th in three races this year. Won here last year.

4. Court Vision won a Grade 3 here in October. Seems slow, but if you’re looking for deep closers, this is likely one.

5. Eight Belles is a filly and has never run against colts. Trainer Larry Jones is highly successful in the southwest, but this is the big leagues. But another smart guy I know likes her.

6. Z Fortune’s second in the Arkansas Derby may be as impressive as anything anyone has done here, as he was four-wide around both turns, losing a ton of ground.

7. Big Truck will be one of the longest shots on the board. Won the Tampa Bay Derby with a 93 Beyer but everything else has been 87 or less. Will need a fast race that falls apart because this closer just isn’t that fast.

8. Visionaire is a live longshot and was the only horse making up ground late in the Bluegrass over the Polytrack. Previous four races were all impressive and trainer Matz won here with Barbaro.

9. Pyro will likely be the third betting choice despite the horrendous clunker in the Bluegrass. If you toss that race due to the Polytrack (which everyone seems very willing to do) this horse is the most likely winner of all the closers.

10. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby, and the winner of that race is always a threat. But this horse has never raced on dirt before, with all six races over synthetic surfaces.

11. Z Humor has been 3rd, 4th, and 5th this year after earning $543,700 as a two-year old. Will be close to the pace, which I don’t like to see.

12. Smooth Air finished second to Big Brown’s monstrous performance in the Florida Derby after winning the Grade 2 Hutcheson New Year’s Week. Trainer Stutts not used to this level. Makes up ground in the stretch and tough to toss out.

13. Bob Black Jack has led every step of the way in all three of his wins, which is nearly impossible in this race. Obviously talented but as never raced on dirt (get used to California contenders with nothing but synthetic experience).

14. Monba only raced twice all year. Fountain of Youth was a disaster before winning the Bluegrass over Polytrack. Pletcher famously poor as a trainer in this race. Can you trust the Polytrack performance?

15. Adriano ran ninth in his only dirt race of his career, but you have to figure that Prado had other options and he’s on this one’s back.

16. Denis of Cork seems too slow but has won 3 of 4 lifetime and made up over 20 lengths in his Southwest win at Oaklawn. Calvin Borel won this one last year up the rail.

17. Cowboy Cal is a speed-oriented horse used to racing on turf and Polytrack.

18. Recapturetheglory paid $33.80 in the Illinois Derby but seems a need-to-lead horse and is surrounded by speed.

19. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby in his only dirt performance. Veteran jock Mike Smith knows this race and will try to avoid being right on the lead, preferring to rate just behind the pace. Has a shot if he can avoid getting caught up in the outside speed.

20. Big Brown ran monsters in all three of his three career races, but is obviously light on experience. Plenty of speed outside along with him. Don’t trust Dutrow in the big leagues and will play against him and hope the pace cooks him.

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Tiger Woods was a solid +130 favorite to win the Masters this week, but more than any other tournament it seems like the big star is the golf course, and in this instance the golf club as well.

With a membership so exclusive that even zillionaires like Wayne “Caddyshack” Huizenga aren’t invited, Augusta National certainly carries an air of mystery. Steve Hummer’s piece on Augusta National Chairman Billy Payne provides some insight to the place.

Apparently Augusta National membership provides an opportunity for powerful tycoons to have their choice of clothing critiqued. Disapproving of a straw hat worn by a member, Payne lets him know about it. The hat wearing member is surely a millionaire titan of industry experienced in having people ask for altitude parameters when he asks them to jump. Yet he reacts to the style reprimand by meekly removes the chapeau. You have to believe that he’d likely be a bit more assertive, but there’s something about Augusta National membership that makes these guys swoon.

Interestingly, it is made clear in the article that the welcome mat was not exactly out for Chris Berman to participate in ESPN’s coverage of the first two rounds of the Masters. That explains the paucity of Steve Miller Band references as well as why you aren’t hearing the first round leader at Augusta National “Velvet” referred to as Justin “Time” Rose “Bowl.”
Enjoy the Masters.

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When it comes to international trade disputes, the US is usually on the free market side while Europe is more likely to be protectionist. The European edition of The Wall Street Journal points out that the roles are reversed when it comes to US interference with the operations of foreign online wagering services. The European Union is not pleased that the US has exceptions for domestic operators like horse betting sites, state lotteries, and the like while it looks to snuff out the opportunity that Americans have to wager with similar services overseas.

The EU has a winning case here, and the trading partnership and diplomatic relations with Europe is infinitely more important to the US than America’s relationship with Antigua, who prevailed with the World Trade Organization against the US last summer in a similar case, the results of which have largely been shrugged off by the US. The hundreds of millions of dollars in value erased from overseas stock markets when publicly-held foreign firms left the US wagering market leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of the European business community, giving the Europeans some resolve in the matter.

With the banks clearly not pleased to be playing “gambling transaction cop” as required by the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, Congressman Barney Frank’s proposal to exempt licensed operators from US regulations may be the long term solution. While it is unlikely that ads for online poker rooms and sports books will be flooding the airwaves anytime soon, things may be on the upswing for bettors in the US.

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Is it just me or does it look like the ESPN panel expects Bobby Knight to pull out a weapon and start shooting at any moment? Jay Bilas looks positively terrified.

Let’s look at a few items of pointspread interest pertaining to the Kansas/Memphis championship game.

• the public strongly favors Memphis and the over. The openers were Kansas -1.5 and 144. Now Memphis is a 2-point favorite and the total has been bet up to anywhere from 147.5 to 148.5.
• After going a typical (for them) 37-67 (55.2%) from the line in the first two rounds, Memphis’ free throw bugaboo has disappeared. Against Michigan State, Texas, and UCLA, the Tigers have drained a phenomenal 76-94 (80.8%) from charity stripe.
• The extent to which Derrick Rose is taking over is not being overplayed. After taking 10 or more shots in only 2 of Memphis’ previous 7 games, Rose has double-digit shot attempts in all five tourney games.
• Rose has 17 points or more in every NCAA tournament game. He hadn’t scored 17+ in more than two consecutive games since doing so in Memphis’ first four games in November.
• Rose missed a media session Sunday with an upset stomach, but practiced on Sunday night.
• Kansas has shot 50% or better from the field in 25 games this year. Memphis has done so only 12 times.
• Only once all season did an opponent outshoot Kansas. In a 59-55 loss to the Jayhawks on December 2nd, Southern Cal shot 38.5% to Kansas’ 37.9%.
• Russell Robinson (14/16) and Sherron Collins (15/17) both have fewer assists than turnovers in the tournament.
• You’ve seen their offensive highlights, but it is worth noting that these are the two best defensive teams in the country, with Kansas allowing only 37.9% shooting, while Memphis permits opponents only 38.7% from the field.

Enjoy the game.

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This is the furthest a Memphis team has every advanced in the tourney. The 1985 Tigers were upset by Villanova in the semis.

Other than Vincent Askew, who enjoyed a decade in the NBA, whatever happened to that talented team?

Keith Lee washed out of the NBA in three years due to bad knees, and it gets worse. Baskerville Holmes murdered his girlfriend then turned the gun on himself. Aaron Price was shot and killed and his murder was never solved. His potential unfulfilled due to an affinity for cocaine, William Bedford washed out of the NBA and is in federal prison in Texas.

Geoff Calkins of the Memphis Commercial-Appeal details the sad story.

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While having four #1 seeds advance to the Final Four certainly sounds dull, it makes for spectacular Saturday matchups (on paper, at least).

All four teams are outstanding, with excellent offenses (all shoot 47% or better from the field) and suffocating defenses (all permit 42.3% or less, with Memphis and Kansas both allowing less than 39% shooting).

These aren’t “system” teams that have gotten there thanks to a good coach and a hot streak, they’re enormously talented. A pair of NBA mock drafts both have 10 players in this Final Four going in the first 32 picks of the draft. That’s quite a collection of talent on hand.

Let’s point out a fact or two about each team that maybe have somehow been overlooked in the storm of media coverage. Maybe these facts will help you from a pointspread perspective. Maybe they won’t.

Memphis: The free throw woes of the Tigers are well-documented. But Chris Douglas-Roberts is doing all he can to change things. After shooting only 67.4% from the line during the season, CDR has been a lights-out 36-43 (83.7%) from the line during the tournament. Memphis is only 7-13 their last 20 games against the pointspread, but most of those non-covers were laying big wood. Laying reasonable numbers in their two most recent games they’ve covered by a combined 27.5 points.

UCLA: The Bruins have an inferior defense to Memphis if you judge by field goal percentage allowed (38.8% to 41.7%), but the Pac Ten was not only the best, but also the most offensively advanced conference in the country. The level of competition faced by these two teams from early January through their conference tournaments isn’t even close. UCLA is a defense that is better than their stats.

Kansas: You think of Kansas as a fast-paced team, and they aren’t shy about getting up and down the court, but they average 8 fewer field goal attempts than North Carolina, which speaks to the breakneck pace favored by the Tar Heels. With Kansas averaging three fewer offensive rebounds, three fewer free throws, and turnovers just about equal, the Tar Heels make seemingly uptempo Jayhawks look like a Big Ten or CAA team in comparison.

North Carolina: Tyler Hansbrough is not getting to the line with the same regularity that he did throughout most of the season. Hansbrough shot an average of 10.7 free throws per game in the first 30 games of the season, but has enjoyed only 6.25 attempts per game from the charity stripe since then. UNC’s 23-10 pointspread record this season is remarkable considering they’re a public team that everyone wants to back. The Tar Heels allow 42.3% shooting, the worst mark among these four teams.

Enjoy the games Saturday night.

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