Today’s 5 nuggets for conference tournament action include some surprising pointspread data.   

1. The ACC tournament tips off today and if you’re looking to get involved with the contrarian “play the cold team” angle, Virginia may be your team.  The Cavs started a shocking 6-2 in conference play under first year coach Tony Bennett but have hit the wall since then, losing 9 straight and going 0-8-1 against the spread in that stretch.   They shot over 53% in their regular season finale against Maryland and held the Terps to under 42% shooting yet not only lost, but failed to cover as a +5.5-point home dog.  The Cavs remain without All-ACC second teamer Sylven Landesberg, suspended by Bennett for missing class. 

2. Despite a $7 million buyout in a contract Georgia Coach Paul Hewitt negotiated with a departed athletic director, Hewitt is no lock to come back next year if you read between the lines of a statement by Yellow Jackets’ current AD Dan Radakovich. Hailed as the game’s next great young coach when Georgia Tech lost the 2004 national title game to Connecticut, Hewitt’s clubs have been a disappointment in every other year, and shockingly, ’04 was the only year that Tech had a winning record in ACC play in Hewitt’s 10 years in charge.    With the team’s two best players likely to be early entries for the draft, this becomes a very important tournament for Hewitt and the Jackets.  Offshore and online sportsbooks opened Tech as a 3.5-point favorite over a dreadful North Carolina team in today’s contest.  

3. How bad is the lower tier of the Big 10, “featuring” Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State?  Bad enough that Vegas, online and offshore sportsbooks opened such modestly accomplished teams as Michigan, Northwestern, and Minnesota as favorites of anywhere from 6.5 to 8 points against those three disasters.

4. The Arkansas/Georgia first rounder in SEC play just got interesting.  Arkansas freshman Marshawn Powell called himself the leader of the team saying, “I’m not taking nothing from Mike (Washington) or Stef (Welsh). I know those are the seniors. I’m taking it and just putting it on my back. This is what this team needs is a leader. We haven’t had that all year. So it’s my turn to try, I guess.” It will be interesting to see how much Mike and Stef feed Powell the ball in today’s game against the limited, but hard-trying Bulldogs.

5. If you’re trying to beat Washington today with Oregon State +9 or so, make sure it’s not just because of the Huskies struggles on the road, as Lorenzo Romar’s crew appears to have turned that around.  After starting 0-7 both straight up and against the spread away from Seattle, failing to cover those games by a combined 78 points, UW became a winning team on the highway.   In their final four road affairs, the Huskies went 4-0 both straight up and against the spread, beating the line by a combined 34 points.  UW was favored in all four games despite the previous road struggles, a fact that doesn’t compliment the rest of the Pac Ten.

6. Here’s a bonus to your “Starting 5″ as we turn it into a hockey team.  Villanova has an important contributor returning as they play their tournament opener at Madison Square Garden.   Sophomore forward Taylor King, the Wildcats second-leading rebounder, is back for the Wildcats after missing last Saturday’s overtime loss to West Virginia with what was termed a “personal issue”.  It was originally reported that King would miss at least ‘nova’s first round game, but it looks like he’ll play today.

Good luck in your own personal conference tournament play today against the sportsbooks  If you’re interested in getting involved with our late telephone service for the tournaments you can call 770-649-1078.

We gave you some “big picture” conference tournament information yesterday.  Today let’s move on to some nuts and bolts in the Wednesday hoops card.

1. Fatigue won’t necessarily be a big factor in the early Big East games today.   Depaul didn’t provide much of a challenge to South Florida, with the Bulls winning by 9 despite hitting 0-15 from the perimeter (including 0-8 from 3-point land) and only 6-14 from the line.   Obviously USF played well other than outside shooting, but those horrendous shooting numbers show that anyone else in the league would have beaten the Bulls yesterday, as Depaul is just dreadful.  USF is certainly due to shoot better. 

2. Three bench players for St. John’s saw 15 minutes or more in their wipeout of the underachieving Connecticut Huskies.  Will St. John’s fans go “back to the future” and actually support the team in the Garden today?  It’s worth noting that since conference play started, underdogs are 10-3 against the spread in Marquette games provided the pointspread is more than 2.  The Warriors Golden Eagles simply play to their level of competition, and it will be no surprise if this battle with the Redmen Red Storm goes down to the wire as well.  Marquette opened favored by 3.5 points, after being a 1.5-point favorite at Carnesseca Arena a couple of weeks ago in a 2-point overtime win over St. John’s.

3.  A Big East night game may have  a team fresher than expected, as well. Don’t automatically assume that Seton Hall will be drained from their 109-106 regulation win over Providence.  The Pirates typically get up and down the court and only one starter played more than 31 minutes.  There was also plenty of standing around while the 82 free throws were taken.

4. There are a couple of “donkey games” on Wednesday out west.   Oregon vs. Washington State is no prize.  But it’s tough to find an uglier matchup than Air Force and Wyoming in the Mountain West, as these would be the worst two teams in any power conference, as well as the Missouri Valley, the WAC, and, if it weren’t for Fordham, in the Atlantic 10 as well.   Wyoming has been opened a narrow favorite by Vegas and online sportsbooks.    More importantly, don’t forget that the top Mountain West teams that will end up in various tournaments benefited from beating up on these two dregs.

5. Remember that we work very hard on the postseason tournaments and most years our hard work pays off.  Historically we’ve done well in the conference tournaments, the NCAA tournament, and the end of the NBA regular season.  To take advantage of this package, discounted to less than $9 per day, call me at 770-649-1078.

This week (in fact, this afternoon) the major conference tournaments kick in as the massive, 5-day, 16-team Big East tournament kicks off.  And what a week it is.  There are more games this week than there are in the NCAA tournament, NIT, and CBI combined.  For basketball bettors it is a huge week.  Let’s take a look at five things that you should be thinking about as you play the college conference tournaments, a time of year where motivation and matchups are the two key handicapping factors. .

1. These tournaments mean different things in different leagues.  The importance of the Big East and ACC tournaments are ingrained in the culture in those leagues, and bragging rights from bringing home the title in front of frenzied crowds is important.   In the Big 12 and Pac 10 there is less focus on the tournament.  Powerful teams are more likely to mail one in and move on to the NCAA’s.

2. But things can change on a year to year basis.  With none of the “powerful teams” mentioned in item 2, the Pac Ten tourney is more important than usual.   The league is way down this year and there is a chance for this to be a one-bid league.  But some bracket analysts believe that if Arizona State meets Washington in the semi-finals, that might be close to a “play-in” game for one of those teams.

3. Some conference tourneys mean a lot in settling NCAA bids.  Some don’t.  While there are 4 or even 5 teams in the Atlantic 10 tournament who could play their way on or off the bubble, the opposite is true in the Big 12. The top 7 Big 12 are universally accepted to be locked in to their bids.  The bottom 5 Big 12 teams are universally accepted to be out of the tournament barring some sort of miracle run.

4. Motivation and matchups based on this year’s teams matter.  Live in the present.  Past history doesn’t matter a whole lot in a season where 14-loss UConn is the 12th seed in the Big East Conference tournment, 17-loss UCLA had a losing record in the Pac Ten, 15-loss North Carolina humiliated themselves weekly in the ACC, and 20-loss Indiana lost 11 Big 10 games by 13 or more.  

5.  There are a lot of hidden factors in each conference tournament that you need to spend time making yourself aware of.  For instance, the Conference USA tournament is finally in a city other than Memphis this year.  It is in Tulsa, but it is not on Tulsa’s home court, so don’t give Tulsa a full home-court edge, but a modest one instead.   In years that Syracuse doesn’t have much of a shot in the NCAA’s, Jim Boeheim takes a big shot in the Big East tournament.  But in years where he sees his team as a major NCAA threat, his teams are less liketly to go to the wall with top effort.   In fact, Boeheim has told people he may rest Wes Johnson this week in an effort to get his hand healthy.  While following through on resting Johnson would be a surprise, Boeheim may simply be prepping for the NCAA’s. 

This is annually our most active week of the year, and often one of our most profitable ones.  And you can get all of our conference tournament action for free when you sign up for our NCAA tournament package.  Additionally, you’ll get the rest of the NBA for free as well.  In the closing weeks of the NBA we get active with a number of late-season strategies that have done well for us in the past.   

The end result is you get all of our remaining college basketball and NBA regular season for less than $9 per day.  For details or more information call 770-649-1078.  If there’s no answer (during prime ‘capping time the phone doesn’t always get answered) just leave a message and I’ll call you back personally.    

Good luck in the conference tournaments, and be careful.

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple’s 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown.  But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if 8-point favorite Temple can beat LaSalle they’ll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad.  Since their blowout loss at Richmond, the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair.   Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals “surge” as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino’s charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse.  The Cardinal is on a 3-10 pointspread run overall.   Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they’ve won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova.  Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse.  A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. The Michigan State/Purdue game today is compelling, and even moreso with Robbie Hummel out for the Boilermakers.  But the rest of the conference today?  Egads.  If you don’t have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal.  All you’re missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight.   Iowa has lost 8 of 9.  Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries.  Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.  Iowa is favored by 6, and that’s a spread range that they’re not terribly familiar with.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either.  Penn State is favored by 2 over a Northwestern team that is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven’t had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game.  The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite.   Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).  

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few “power conferences” there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon.   Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament.   It is clearly Sunday’s most attractive matchup, and you’ll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

With a typically massive college basketball lineup on Saturday, let’s take a look at five items of interest in today’s hoop action.

1. The marquee matchup on Saturday night is Villanova at Syracuse in front of the largest on-campus crowd in the history of the sport.  The total in this game is a daunting proposition, as Syracuse games don’t have a lot of fouls called while Villanova fouls a ton and gets fouled as well.  Syracuse games average 37 free throws attempted, the average Villanova game has 54 opportunities from the stripe.  No surprise that ‘nova games are high, with 156 average points in Villanova games, which is 10 points more than the 146 seen in the typical Syracuse contest.

 2. Georgia Tech takes on Boston College in an early start in Atlanta, and it will be interesting to see how the Yellow Jackets react to Coach Paul Hewitt challenging Tech fans and his critics.  Having a coach in open debate with his fans and media during a season is unique, but maybe the players will see it as their coach having their back and will play well. Tech opened a 7.5-favorite at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Tech fans disappointed in the Jackets would be surprised to learn that Hewitt’s club is 13-8 against the spread.

3. Tennessee isn’t playing terrific ball right now, but they might catch Kentucky at the right time.  The Wildcats had a fairly easy time of it beating South Carolina in a 9PM EST game on Thursday night and now have to play at noon against the Vols.  Lexington to Knoxville is a short trip, but the schedulemaker doesn’t do UK any favors with a late Thursday game followed by traveling to play at noon.  

4. USC takes on Oregon State tonight after a Thursday night second half collapse against Oregon that was as bad a half of basketball as you’ll ever seen.  Leading by 9 at the half, the Trojans permitted a dreadful Oregon team to outscore them 31-12 in the second half in the 54-44 loss.   After a 14-0 Oregon run earlier in the half, the Ducks closed with a 12-0 run to close things out. Senior starters Mike Gerrity (scoreless) and Dwight Lewis (3 for 14 from the field) were terrible for the Trojans.  Southern Cal opened a 7-point favorite over OSU at Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

5. Streak players will have trouble making up their mind in the matchup between West Coast Conference dregs San Diego and Pepperdine tonight.  If you take away their previous win and cover in this “rivalry”, San Diego is on an 0-10-1 run against the spread.  Meanwhile, the Waves are 0-8 to the number recently.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful. 

Las Vegas’ M Resort, about 8 miles closer to California than the strip hotels, has an intersting sports betting model, as they hired investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald’s wagering unit, Cantor Wagering, to run their sports book.   

Articles in Fortune and the Wall Street Journal highlighted Cantor’s focus on in-game wagering and the innovative mobile eDeck sports betting unit that allows visitors to bet from anywhere within the casino.  But what the media is missing is that in an era of casino companies being risk averse in the sports book, the M is taking the biggest bets in town.   Serious bettors I know are spending a lot of time at the M.

Sports betting isn’t all the property has to offer.  There’s much more open space than most casinos and it’s clean modern design sets it apart from it’s strip competition.  A top floor bar offers superior vistas of the entire Las Vegas Valley.  Factor in the creative sports betting options and it is definitely worth a visit on your next trip to Vegas.

Here are a handful of items of interest to those interested in betting the college and NBA basketball card on Thursday night. 

1. If you’re looking for UCLA to bounce back from their embarrassing 97-68 blowout loss at Washington last weekend, you’ll want to be on top of the Bruins’ injury situation for their game against Oregon State tonight.  The frontcourt is thin for Ben Howland’s troops as Reeves Nelson (11 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) is out for the weekend after eye surgery and Brendan Lane’s status is up in the air after he injured his ankle in practice this week.  Lane only averages 2.2 points per game, but had a season high 11 in the loss up in Seattle.  In Nelson’s absence his status is more important than it would be otherwise.  The Bruins are favored by 5 on their home floor tonight.

2. Another Pac Ten frontcourt with injury issues is Cal’s.  The Golden Bears have backup center Max Zhang out with a collapsed lung, Markhuri Sanders-Frison playing through some back issues and Omondi Amoke suffering with some shoulder issues.  First-place Cal is the favorite to pull down their first regular season conference title since 1960, but have a tough weekend ahead with Arizona tonight and Arizona State on Saturday.

3. Arizona State, a team benefitting from contributions throughout a deep roster,  heads to Stanford tonight.  The Sun Devils are a 2.5-point favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Stanford is 5-1 straight up against conference foes at home despite having only 5 scholarship players available for several of those games.

4. Wisconsin has played 6 of their last 9 games at home, but return to the conference road tonight with a trip to Bloomington, Indiana to face the Hoosiers.   Their status as 11-point favorites at Vegas and online sportsbooks seems reasonable considering Indiana has lost 8 in a row, and in failing to cover their last 5 has lost each of those games by 14 points or more.   Those close to the program insist the Hoosiers are getting better, but this already thin club is still trying to recover from not only the Kelvin Sampson era but key injury losses earlier this season.

5. Thursday’s NBA card appears to be headlined by the Cavaliers/Celtics clash, but that game loses some luster if Paul Pierce doesn’t play.  Doc Rivers suggests that it is “most likely” that Pierce doesn’t go tonight, as he is suffering from both the flu and a bad thumb.  The Celtics look like a team in decline and continue to disappoint bettors with a miserable 6-18 pointspread mark on their home court.

Some news and notes for college basketball bettors as we head into the weekend.

1. North Carolina is not only 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games, but those 10 non-covers have been by a combined 116.5 points to the pointspread.   How did this team beat Ohio State, blow out Michigan State, and lose to Kentucky in Lexington by only 2 back in December?   With yet another injury to one of their bigs, Ed Davis has a broken wrist and may be out for the season.  But on this team with 7 McDonald’s All-Americans, nobody is stepping up.

2. Pierre Henderson-Niles has left the Memphis basketball team with just 8 games left in his college career.  While the burly Henderson-Niles is best known for a near-brawl with fans at UAB last season, and is limited offensively, the Tigers do lose their second leading rebounder.  But when you look at the bizarre series of social media posts by Henderson-Niles you have to wonder if he was a malcontent and if the Tigers will be better off not having him around.

3. You’ve heard of road/home differential, but the Washington Huskies are ridiculous.  After their blowout loss at Cal on Thursday night, Washington remains winless away from Seattle.  Away from home, Lorenzo Romar’s charges are 0-7 straight up, 0-7 against the spread, and have lost those 7 games by a combined 78 and failing to cover the pointspread set by Vegas and online sportsbooks by a remarkable 74 points.   Unfortunately for our purposes, Saturday’s game at Stanford looks like a case of go-against vs. go-against.

4. Georgia is improving, but have trouble handling prosperity. If they win again, know that since Christmas they have lost immediately after all 4 of their wins.   3 of those were double digit covers.

5.  OK, amidst all this negativity, let’s point out a bright spot.  After a 5-11 start, including 0-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play, Drake has reeled off a 9-2 pointspread streak, failing only to cover in their two games against Valley dominator Northern Iowa.  Unheralded second-year coach Mark Phelps has done a great job keeping the Bulldogs together and competitive through the grind of a very physical conference.  

Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

First, look to avoid all props that have multiple results possible. Turn the odds into a probability percentage (like 3-1=25%, 4-1=20%, etc.) add them up and some of these things are at 180% (an 80% takeout) or more.   Look to bet yes/no, over/under, team vs. team, etc. You can find good things even with 30 cent lines (the equivalent of -115 on both sides).  The juice built into bets like “first player to score TD” and “margin of victory” is enormous. 

Secondly, take your weak books and compare their props to what the lines are for the same props at strong books that have been hammered over mutliple days.   You can find bets that are -170 at a sharp book that your weak or local book has at -115 for the same prop.  I find good plays every year simply by comparing and contrasting. Good luck in the Super Bowl.

Here are 5 items of interest to basketball bettors heading into the weekend.

1. Louisville coach Rick Pitino hasn’t had the best year.  And his basketball team has done little to buoy his spirits.  Pitino was highly critical of his team’s defense this week, saying “The effort is there.  The guys are willing to pay the price.  We’re just a weak defensive team.”  Catching three hoops at Vegas and online sportsbooks, the Cardinals head to Morgantown on Saturday, but may enjoy a bit of a matchup edge, as WVU’s strength is not at the point guard position.

2. The bottom half of the SEC West is weak, weak, weak.  LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn not only are all ranked 120th or lower in the country by the major power ratings, but have been pointspread disasters as well, with a combined 15-27 mark against the spread.

3. The equivalent teams in the Big Ten are Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana, none of whom crack the Top 100 in any power ratings and combining for 23-33 against the pointspread.

4. Kentucky was going to lose sooner, or later, but apparently not all of their fans were aware of that. The Get-A-Lifers among Kentucky’s loyal following have taken to using social networking sites to harshly criticize the Big Blue players directly. Patrick Patterson, among others, is not amused.   Does UK bounce back from their disapointing loss and take care of Vanderbilt as a sizable favorite?   Or does their disappointment show?   Off their big win in Knoxville, Vandy could be in letdown mode themselves, as road dogs off of a upset road win is a tough subset for bettors to make profitable.

5. The other side of that Kentucky upset, South Carolina, takes on an improving Georgia five on Saturday.   Their focus will be interesting to see and a letdown is possible, as the scene doesn’t get any wilder following an upset than it was in Columbia on Tuesday night.  Devan Downey’s coming out party wasn’t a great game for him until a few late clutch hoops were made.  In fact, the 30 points he scored on 9 for 29 shooting saw his scoring average in SEC games go down.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.